ACC Tourney and NCAA Tourney Chances

[GTNavyNuke]

Weekend review regarding our plight at making ACC Tournament field:
As the weekend action ends...
BC just swept NCST and is 5-1 in their last 2 weekends. Suddenly NCST is in reach AND BC is a team with life.

There are 2 teams at 6-15 (remaining series in parentheses):
GT (Pitt; @Duke; UVA)
BC (Mia; @WF; ND)

There are now 5 teams at 8-13
NCST (VT; @Pitt; Clem)
ND (Duke; Lou; @BC)
Duke (@ND; GT; @UNC)
Pitt (@GT; NCST; @WF)
VT (@NCST; UNC; @Mia)

We need to finish higher than 2 of the 6 in the mix here. The path exists and it's not crazy. We should be able to get past at least 2 of those teams.

Reasons to be positive:
-We have tiebreaker over VT should we finished tied with them
-We still have to play Pitt and Duke; therefore, have quite a bit of control over our own situation
-Quite a few of these teams will face one-another (i.e. impossible for all of them to get too far away from us)
-Duke plays us at home; but must travel to ND and UNC
-Pitt has 2 road series left (GT, WF) and a now desperate NCST at home
-VT has 2 road series left (NCST, Mia) and a tough UNC squad at home
-With same record as BC right now.. we just need to win more than them over final 9 games

Reasons to be pissed:
ND series... its hindsight (should avoid these thoughts); buuuuut how did we allow them to sweep us? Killer!

Reasons to do all you can to 'divorce' yourself from this team (I can't....but perhaps you can save yourself):
UVA series to end the season. We will likely have not "locked up" a tournament spot going into the final weekend. UVA will come to Atlanta. UVA is very good. Incredible heartbreak in final weekend of the season is sooooooo "this team".

Good intro to the poll. What do people think our chances are to go to the ACC Tourney and ACC Tourney.

9 ACC games to go. I think we are 75% likely to make the ACC Tourney and ~<25% likely to make the NCAAs. Since I screwed up and published this early, I'll post more later.

My thoughts are we take two from Pitt and two from Duke and one from UVa. That should easily get us into the ACC since only 2 of 14 teams are excluded.

NCAAs are a lot harder since we would need an RPI above 40 or so. UNC was left out last year with a 28 (as I remember) largely since they didn't make the ACC Tourney which was more competitive last year. Our chances of going deep in the ACC Tourney are limited as multiple games put a premium on pitching depth.

With our inconsistent pitching, anything can happen. But most likely is inconsistency will continue and give up big devastating innings.

 

[THWG]

Good intro to the poll. What do people think our chances are to go to the ACC Tourney and ACC Tourney.

I think that we have a great chance to make the ACC tourney, but I don't like our chances of making the NCAA tourney this year unless the guys can get to 10 games over .500. Our schedule and some good wins are helping our RPI this year, so 10 games over is probably what it'll take.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I didn't mean to publish the thread but did early. People can vote as many times as they want but what I was hoping was that people would vote once for the ACC question and once for the NCAA question.

 

[FredJacket]

I gave up on NCAA bid after falling below .500 a week or so ago. However...Assuming we do finish relatively strong by winning 6 or 7 of our final 9 ACC games, One interesting scenario with ACC Tournament format would be if we happen to win our pool getting to the tournament semifinals. I wonder how selection committee would look at something like that.

 

[awbuzz]

I gave up on NCAA bid after falling below .500 a week or so ago. However...Assuming we do finish relatively strong by winning 6 or 7 of our final 9 ACC games, One interesting scenario with ACC Tournament format would be if we happen to win our pool getting to the tournament semifinals. I wonder how selection committee would look at something like that.

Sure would like to find out!

 

[65Jacket]

Even if we do make the NCAA, we will be routed to our whipping boy, Florida, again.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

With Shadday hurt, I downgraded our ACC chances from 75% to 25%.

 

[THWG]

With Shadday hurt, I downgraded our ACC chances from 75% to 25%.

I still feel like we have a good chance to make the ACC tournament since Gibson and Lee have been pitching better (still a bit inconsistent though) as of late. However, the only way we're making the NCAA tourney is winning the ACC. You have a better chance to see a sasquatch than for that to happen though.