ACC Standings & GT Finish

[MWBATL]

Only problem I see (if I am understanding all this) is that since we are -2 right now, if we go 4-2 in our remaining ACC games we will finish at 0, not +2. I don't think that guarantees us a spot in the top 6, and would have had us in the play-in last year as well as (likely) this year.

I am just still very disturbed by this team. Something seems very wrong to me, and I can't quite put my finger on it. That Pitts is still starting ACC games is baffling to me. I guess that Schneiderjens must be injured, we just haven't seen him in ages. Sophomore pitchers are getting tons of innings, freshmen not so much. When Pabst is not behind the plate, we are very iffy defensively. Kel Johnson is obviously still working his way back into hitting shape, and without him (or with him as an auto whiff in the lineup) we are very weak offensively. We have managed only 15 runs in our last 7 ACC games (in regulation). We laud the team (rightfully so) for having grit and never giving up and having 14 come-from-behind wins, but the problem is we have trailed in nearly 75% of our games.....it's hard to come from behind ALL the time!

But mostly, I am just very disturbed by the pitching. Mostly because nothing has really changed much. We just keep trotting the same guys out there and somehow expecting different results? I am just baffled as to why? Or maybe we just don't have any decent pitchers beyond this thin line of 2 decent starters and 2 decent relievers.

Sorry, but there is just no way I see this team doing anything in the post-season. maybe, just maybe if everything breaks just right, we can get Pabst and Kel back, and we can scrape by with 2 starters and 2 relievers.....but I am not counting on any of that. This is the second year in a row that we may finish with a below 0.500 record in the ACC, with VERY disappointing series sweeps up north (Pitt last year and BC this year) that leave me really wondering about the state of our program.

LSU we are not.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yup, if we go 4-2 we are at 500 on the year. Largely because we got swept by BC IMHO. And we will be 6th or 7th likely depending on the tie breakers. Since Clemson and ND are currently #5 & #6 and we have the tie breaker that is an advantage. #7 is NC State who we didn't play. So we may get lucky at 500 and in the top 6.

I'm not happy wither since we were playing better to start the year and mid-year.

I rationalize the Pitts continuing to pitch this way. First, Parr or anyone else available isn't that much better. Second, Hall is giving Pitts one last chance to get drafted. I think pitching Pitts on the weekends and him succeeding is the only way he will get drafted. Pitts did a lot of good stuff for us 2 and 3 years ago so I kind of see Pitt's interests being put ahead of the teams. I think Hall is very much a player's coach who helps his players as much as he can. The big benefit is that if Pitt's control does come back in the next few weeks, we have a chance to go deeper in the ACC tourney and a bit deeper in the NCAAs. If it doesn't, we are screwed and haven't developed talent for next year. That is what bothers me. Just like I would have play more backup QBs, to develop for the future, I'd probably develop more FR and SO than we are.

Pabst is back and seemed ok from what I heard on Sunday. Kel is an enigma but I guess the ankle is a big deal even for hitting. Since I can't hit 75 mph balls out of a pitching machine, I can't say I understand what it takes to be able to hit live and faster.

I was hesitant to write in other posts that I thought we'd be better next year. But I really do, largely because the pitching will be better and we'll have a fine O and D. Last year's team I liked a lot since they got a lot better as the year went on. This year's team has not; but the season isn't over.

We aren't an elite team and generally don't get elite talent. Elite teams get the players who are drafted high and choose instead to go to college. They have elite pitchers who come in as Fr and start on weekends. If we got one a year, we'd be set too. But to do that we have to go outside of Georgia more. Not that there isn't talent in Georgia, just that there is a lot of competition for it. It's not like UVa who gets who they want in the state and adjoining states. (Or Texas or Vandy or LSU).

FWIW, I was out of town for both the Louisville and BC series. I'm going to ATL but should be home by Saturday so hopefully the jinx doesn't continue. Presbyterian, Mercer, Pitt and UGAg won't do much for our RPI or coaches rankings because they are so weak. Miami and the ACC tourney will decide how we are seeded if we haven't screwed the pooch before Miami.

But at least we aren't UGAg! Where talent goes to die.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Looks like we are pretty good for NCAAs (barring a collapse) since we are at 24th right now. Here I read that top 45 RPI last year all made it and even down to 60 ..... "This year I noticed that the seeding was very straightforward. Every one of the teams in the top 3 seeds came from that group of top-60 RPI teams. The #4 seeds were all filled by the usual set of conference champions with lower RPI scores, and there were only two instances where a team with a top-45 pRPI was knocked out of a possible #3 seed, as noted below." http://www.nettally.com/jcarr/Baseball/region/2014.html

I couldn't figure out the exact RPI calculations becasue they are "secret"?! From http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/faq.html

"What are the RPI's?

The Ratings Power Index is the official NCAA formula designed to aid the selection committee for each sport in choosing the tournament field. It is based on a combination of a team's winning percentage, their opponents' winning percentage, and their opponents' opponents' winning percentage, with bonuses and penalties involved for road wins against top teams or home losses to lower-ranked teams. The official RPI document for baseball is http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi.doc in Microsoft Word format.

What are the pseudo-RPI's?

The pseudo-RPI's are my best effort at a simulation of the RPI's. The full formula is not released, but my best guess is that the sizes of the bonuses are .001 for wins over teams between 51 and 75, .0035 for wins over teams between 26 and 50, and .006 for wins over teams between 1 and 25. The winning percentages are not the full winning percentage but rather the average of each opponent's winning percentage. I'm still uncertain about the handling of neutral site games.

How closely does the selection committee follow the RPI's?

It varies from year to year -- generally they seem to use it for justification more than guidance. Jim Carr has done a good bit of analysis on this."

For fun, Jim Carr keeps track of how well conferences do. Turns out that both SEC and ACC are over rated in terms of NCAA results the last few years. Here are the 2014 results:
http://www.nettally.com/jcarr/Baseball/rank/2014.html

 

[MWBATL]

I know that losses to weak teams, especially home losses, just kill a team's RPI. Ergo, to remain in the top 45, we must, MUST sweep Pitt. If we lose one game to them we probably from to the middle to lower 30's all at once. If we drop a road game versus Mercer (#126) or the neutral site game vs UGa (#100) we will likely be in the mid 40's (along with a Pitt loss). That would put us in the danger zone big time heading into Miami, not a good place to be.

We can't afford any more games like that Kennesaw game, or the BC series. I will not believe we are OK for the NCAA's unless we remain in the mid 20's heading into Miami, because losses on the road to top ranked teams don't hurt much at all.

The, we MUST NOT blow game sin the ACC Tournament against lower ranked teams.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I know that losses to weak teams, especially home losses, just kill a team's RPI. Ergo, to remain in the top 45, we must, MUST sweep Pitt. If we lose one game to them we probably from to the middle to lower 30's all at once. If we drop a road game versus Mercer (#126) or the neutral site game vs UGa (#100) we will likely be in the mid 40's (along with a Pitt loss). That would put us in the danger zone big time heading into Miami, not a good place to be.

We can't afford any more games like that Kennesaw game, or the BC series. I will not believe we are OK for the NCAA's unless we remain in the mid 20's heading into Miami, because losses on the road to top ranked teams don't hurt much at all.

The, we MUST NOT blow game sin the ACC Tournament against lower ranked teams.

Our RPI / standing is a volatile thing. We can't afford losses to weak teams. To show how volatile the RPI is, tonight after all the games this weekend, our RPI is .5755 and we are 26th. The ironic thing is this RPI (.5755) is exactly what it was before our last game which we won. Right after our last game on Sunday, our RPI went up to .5762 (24th). It isn't far to the 45th seed with an RPI of .5573. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/rpi

Bracketology has us as a 3 seed ...... but we bounce around as to where we are projected to play. I don't think our seeding at third will be firm till after the Miami series. And our location will get bounced around till after the conference championships. http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

Here are the ACC standings in games over 500 after Clemson lost to Louisville tonight:
+18 Louisville
+8 FSU, Miami
+3 UNC
0 ND, Clemson
-1 NC State
-2 Wake, GT, VT
-4 UVa
-8 BC
-9 Fluke
-12 Pitt

So we are tied for 8th to 10th with VT and Wake. VT only has 3 games left with Pitt and swept BC this weekend so they could well end up +1 and in the top 6. Wake took 2 of 3 this weekend from ND and has NC State and Duke left. They both have an easier road than us with Pitt and @Miami.

I still think we are playing in if we finish 3-3. But I am less sure we go if we go to the ACC (or even NCAA) tourney if we end at 2-4 (end at -4) because of how well VT and Wake did this last weekend. If we go 4-2 we could make 6th, but I doubt it given the remaining schedules for other teams. As you said, we "must" sweep Pitt ..... or face going to the last series of the season (again) having to win to make it into the tourney.

 

[Squints]

Ergo, to remain in the top 45, we must, MUST sweep Pitt.

Yea that's not accurate. We don't have to sweep them just to avoid dropping 20 spots. That's absurd. We could probably get swept by Pitt and remain in the top 50.

I will not believe we are OK for the NCAA's unless we remain in the mid 20's heading into Miami, because losses on the road to top ranked teams don't hurt much at all.

You worry too much. We'll be fine. I vaguely remember you guys doing something similar towards the end of last year while getting into regionals was not in doubt at any point. It's the same thing this year. Teams ranked in the 70s are considered on the bubble. We're not dropping 50 spots with 8 games to play unless we lose every single one. If we're in the top 40 or 50 going into that series we probably don't have anything to worry about.

The, we MUST NOT blow game sin the ACC Tournament against lower ranked teams.

Unless we bomb out in the regular season our ACC tourney results are unlikely to affect our regional situation.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

..........
You worry too much. We'll be fine. I vaguely remember you guys doing something similar towards the end of last year while getting into regionals was not in doubt at any point. It's the same thing this year. Teams ranked in the 70s are considered on the bubble. We're not dropping 50 spots with 8 games to play unless we lose every single one. If we're in the top 40 or 50 going into that series we probably don't have anything to worry about.

Unless we bomb out in the regular season our ACC tourney results are unlikely to affect our regional situation.

It's a lot harder to get in than 70 RPI since of the 64 teams, 31 are from conference champions many of whom have poor RPIs. Last year I believe we were on the bubble of the NCAAs till we won the ACC tourney. Regardless, here's a really neat compilation of what it takes to get into the NCAAs from an RPI point of view and even more interesting, how conferences do once they get in. But focusing on getting in:

2014 ..... you could miss with a 40 RPI and make it with a 54 RPI. "The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was West Virginia (40), but they had a record barely over 0.500 and were 6th of 9 in conference with a conference record below 0.400. The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was Cal State Fullerton (54) along with Clemson (50)." http://www.nettally.com/jcarr/Baseball/region/2014.html

2013 ...... you could miss with a 30 RPI and make it with a 57 RPI. "The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Nebraska (30). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was UC Santa Barbara (57), followed by Oklahoma State (52), New Mexico (51), and San Francisco (50). http://www.nettally.com/jcarr/Baseball/region/2013.html

Thus my rule of thumb was if we stay above 45th, we are probably in. As I pointed out earlier, for us to drop to 45th, our RPI ranking would have to decrease from .5766 today to .5560. I think that could happen with multiple home losses to Pitt. Just playing and beating Pitt at home is probably going to drop our RPI based on the formula. But just playing Miami @ Miami we should see an increase in our RPI even if we lose. I think that's because the RPI is heavily weighted to SOS, but I'm not sure which is why I'm watching the RPI so close.....

Adm Rickover once admonished his staff, "All you guys do is sit around and think." I guess I add worry to that!

 

[MWBATL]

Yea that's not accurate. We don't have to sweep them just to avoid dropping 20 spots. That's absurd. We could probably get swept by Pitt and remain in the top 50.
.........................
Unless we bomb out in the regular season our ACC tourney results are unlikely to affect our regional situation.

Um, we dropped almost 10 spots in the RPI with a single loss to Kennesaw State. The way the RPI works is that you get virtually no benefit from winning a home game against a weak team, but a huge penalty for losing such a game. You conversely get almost no penalty for losing on the road against a strong team (our final series vs Miami) but a good lift from winning such a game. So, losing a game to Pitt would easily drop us 10 spots or so. And if you re-read my earlier email, I put it into context that if we lost a game against Pitt AND lost one of the games vs Mercer or Georgia, that we would be in the mid 40's (or worse) in RPI....I still believe that. If we lost all 8 of our remaining games I would bet we would wind up with an RPI in the 60's or 70's and out of post-season play.

And Nuke is right, you need to be in the mid 40's to feel good about your chances....we don't have many signature series wins (swept by Louisville, lost series vs UNC) and a couple of ugly losses (the series sweep at BC being notable in that regard) which hurt our resume. Our SOS helps us, which is reflected heavily in the RPI.

I will agree that barring a collapse, what we do from here on out isn't likely to matter a whole lot. Whether you're a 2 seed or a 3 seed in the Regional is pretty much irrelevant, and we seem certain to visit a nearby SEC Regional no matter what. And likely to get knocked out there (especially with Pitts pitching).

As Furman Bisher used to say....selah!

 

[MWBATL]

On an entirely different topic, I wonder why we never made up the home game against UGa this year? We could have played them last night........

Was it us or them who decided against it?

 

[MWBATL]

Stole this from the Boyd's World website, describing what Georgia Tech must do in its remaining games to finish in the RPI Top 45, Top 32 or Top 16. No chance at a Top 8 finish (there go our Super-Regional hosting hopes!) It is interesting to see, and surprised me. Maybe Squints was right that the rest of us are crotchety old geezers who are too negative. :


Georgia Tech

Remaining: 3 home, 3 road, 1 neutral
Current RPI: 19
ROWP: 0.510

Top 45:

0 home wins, 0 road wins, 1 neutral wins
0 home wins, 1 road wins, 0 neutral wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 1 road wins, 1 neutral wins
0 home wins, 2 road wins, 0 neutral wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins, 1 neutral wins
1 home wins, 1 road wins, 0 neutral wins
2 home wins, 0 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 16:

2 home wins, 3 road wins, 1 neutral wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins, 1 neutral wins
3 home wins, 3 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.

So, 6 wins in the next 7 gets us into the Top 16...woo-hoo! Go Jackets! You can do this!

Ok, maybe that's bit optimistic, but apparently only 2 wins will keep us in the Top 32, which all but guarantees us an NCAA bid, imho.

 

[Squints]

Well it's easy to say now but based on our record, conference, RIP, and SoS we had a spot in the tournament locked up after the UVA series. Up until the BC series we had a shot at hosting a regional. That's why that series really sucked. Assuming everything else stayed the same if we found a way to win the series that weekend we'd have a pretty good shot at it.

 

[Stinger90]

On an entirely different topic, I wonder why we never made up the home game against UGa this year? We could have played them last night........

Was it us or them who decided against it?

The previously rained out home games vs. Georgia State (Feb. 25) and Georgia (April 14) will not be rescheduled.

and it was both coaches.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Stole this from the Boyd's World website, describing what Georgia Tech must do in its remaining games to finish in the RPI Top 45, Top 32 or Top 16. No chance at a Top 8 finish (there go our Super-Regional hosting hopes!) It is interesting to see, and surprised me. Maybe Squints was right that the rest of us are crotchety old geezers who are too negative. :


Georgia Tech

Remaining: 3 home, 3 road, 1 neutral
Current RPI: 19
ROWP: 0.510

Top 45:

0 home wins, 0 road wins, 1 neutral wins
0 home wins, 1 road wins, 0 neutral wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 1 road wins, 1 neutral wins
0 home wins, 2 road wins, 0 neutral wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins, 1 neutral wins
1 home wins, 1 road wins, 0 neutral wins
2 home wins, 0 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 16:

2 home wins, 3 road wins, 1 neutral wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins, 1 neutral wins
3 home wins, 3 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.

So, 6 wins in the next 7 gets us into the Top 16...woo-hoo! Go Jackets! You can do this!

Ok, maybe that's bit optimistic, but apparently only 2 wins will keep us in the Top 32, which all but guarantees us an NCAA bid, imho.

Good stuff, I'll have to find it. The away win at Mercer helped a lot. How we won going 3 down into the ninth still has me shaking my head. But as the Bible says, it's a lot better to give than receive ( that pain).

 

[SwarmArmy]

So, we're in the top 45 now. Win tomorrow, and we're in the top 32. I'd be happy with a top 25 rpi finish. Top 16 would be great, but I don't see us taking 2/3 in Miami.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So, we're in the top 45 now. Win tomorrow, and we're in the top 32. I'd be happy with a top 25 rpi finish. Top 16 would be great, but I don't see us taking 2/3 in Miami.

Sorry, we won and dropped from 19 to 21. Our RPI decreased to .5783, had been up to .5808. Just think what would have happened if we lost ..... the coaches poll goes 45 deep and we haven't been in that for two weeks ... see the top section of http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/schedule/Georgia-Tech The RPI is very heavily weighted to the SOS and quality of teams you play (50% is strength of team you play and only get 70% credit at home).

But I think what Stinger posted is correct - we are very close if not assured of getting into the NCAAs now. But I'd rather avoid the ACC playoff game and find 3 more wins in our next 5 ACC games ..... 4 of 5 would be even better ......

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Like a mosquito to a high voltage ultra violet light, I had to check the ACC standings after our loss to Pitt on Saturday:
+18 Louisville
+11 Miami
+8 FSU
+2 ND,
+1 NC State, UNC
0 Clemson
-2 GT, VT
-4 Wake, UVa
-8 BC
-9 Fluke
-12 Pitt

 

[GTNavyNuke]

At the end of the day:
+17 Louisville
+11 Miami
+9 FSU
+3 ND,
+1 NC State
0 Clemson, UNC
-1 GT
-2 VT
-3 UVa
-4 Wake,
-8 BC
-10 Fluke
-13 Pitt

We can end up anywhere from +2 to -4. Most likely -2 IMHO going 1-2 against Miami.

I think UVa loses at least one to UNC next weekend. And Wake will at least one to Fluke. So we control our own destiny either way. Miami will be very very tough since they have such pitching depth.

RPI at 28th (went into the game 27th). But that will move around a spot or two as other games are finished.

 

[MWBATL]

At the end of the day:
+17 Louisville
+11 Miami
+9 FSU
+3 ND,
+1 NC State
0 Clemson, UNC
-1 GT
-2 VT
-3 UVa
-4 Wake,
-8 BC
-10 Fluke
-13 Pitt

We can end up anywhere from +2 to -4. Most likely -2 IMHO going 1-2 against Miami.

I think UVa loses at least one to UNC next weekend. And Wake will at least one to Fluke. So we control our own destiny either way. Miami will be very very tough since they have such pitching depth.

RPI at 28th (went into the game 27th). But that will move around a spot or two as other games are finished.

So, to summarize, it looks like we are definitely in the ACC Tournament, likely in a playoff game. And we likely are also safe for the NCAA Tournament. So, barring a total collapse, none of the games next week or even in the ACC Tourney matter much, our NCAA seeding is likely locked in already (as is our fate). It appears to me we have only two starting pitchers. Honestly, I have no idea who we will start agains the Dawgs this week, and I suppose we trot out either Paar or Pitts next Friday in the middle game against the 'Canes....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The ACC standing is less certain than the RPI qualifying us right now -- our 19-4 out of conference record pretty much has us in the NCAAs. And is a big part of why we have the high 27th RPI. The UGAg game being a neutral site (I would think but am not sure) means there is less RPI impact from the game. So for the UGAg game. I think we start Parr or Pitts, just like always. Maybe only give them 3 innings max..... pitching by staff is probably the way to go and develop future starters.

As far as definitely in the ACC tourney, there are ways we can screw it up. A sweep by Miami (21% see below) puts us at -4. With Wake winning 2-1 over Fluke (60/40 odds), UVa winning 2-1 over UNC (30/70 odds and we have tiebreaker) and VT winning 1 of 3 from Pitt (90+% likely) would keep us out.

OTOH, a sweep of Miami would put us at +2 and in the top 6. That historically and practically would do it ..... for fun here are the odds I see. Miami is winning 70% ACC (19-8) and GT is winning 48% (13-14). So GT probability of winning an individual game is some where in the vicinity of ~41%* (=48%/(48%+70%)). So the odds of GT sweeping are about ~7% (=.41**3). And getting swept is ~21% (=.59**3).

*Realistically only if King or Gold are starting. And yes, I made this methodology up assuming common ACC opponents. No idea what Vegas has as a probability.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

After losing to UGAg, we only dropped to 29th in RPI. I think we have to win a game against Miami to make the ACC. Another respected rating of teams is the end of year coaches poll, where we were 38th before losing to UGAg. So we are already borderline by that measure ..... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/schedule/Georgia-Tech

If we don't make the ACC tournament and I were impartial, I wouldn't put GT in the tournament. A team should be able to finish in the top 10 of 14 in it's conference to deserve to go, even if we are one of the two best conferences in baseball. That considers the ACC and SEC haven't done that well in the past few years.

But I think we will win a game against Miami. Probably in the ninth on Saturday ......