ACC Spring Overreactions

[ibeattetris]

I didn't see if this was posted anywhere else, but I feel like it fits in the "overreaction" portion of this thread. Despite the click bait title, it seems like a solid video from an outside perspective.

 

[g0lftime]

I continue to be shocked about how people in the sports press are looking at Wake. Did they not watch them last year? Are they simply ignoring what they have coming back? Or is it, as I suspect, the expectation that players who were mainly low three stars can't compete with the "loaded" teams in the ACC?

I repeat: I expect them to fight it out with Clemson for Atlantic champ and I won't be surprised if they come out on top. Dave Clawson knows what he is doing.

Excellent coaching for starters and he has had good quarterback play. There is some "no respect" attitude that motivates them as well.

 

[Eli]

You aren’t even reading or considering to think critically about the situation. So that’s fine. Enjoy your day

College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) | WarrenNolan.com

2021 College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

Would you consider Oklahoma a powerhouse? Wake ranks just 9 spots lower in SOS for 2021 and 10 spots higher than the ACC champs

 

[JacketOff]

College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) | WarrenNolan.com

2021 College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

Would you consider Oklahoma a powerhouse? Wake ranks just 9 spots lower in SOS for 2021 and 10 spots higher than the ACC champs

Celebrating the 71st ranked SOS is weird. Playing Pitt in the ACCCG bumped up Wake’s SOS significantly. Singling out Oklahoma in their worst season since 2015 is also weird.

I’m not even sure what your argument is. Wake’s schedule was trash. I mean, good for them for winning 10 games, but acting like it’s some kind of surprise they aren’t getting any respect is weird. Supporting GT going to a schedule model like what Wake plays would be detrimental to the program.

 

[candrewk]

Oof.



(Is it possible to put the whole cbs on the list?)

They’re unfortunately probably right though. This schedule is virtually identical to 2017. If CPJ couldn’t pull it off then, Collins won’t be able to now.

 

[takethepoints]

College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) | WarrenNolan.com

2021 College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

Would you consider Oklahoma a powerhouse? Wake ranks just 9 spots lower in SOS for 2021 and 10 spots higher than the ACC champs

Yessss. There are two problems here. First, as the link shows, Tech has scheduled to loose and for multiple years. I know Off thinks that having a tough schedule is sorta cool. I suppose he also thinks that wining 3 - 4 games against it shows grit and toughness or something. What I think it shows, again, is the strength of the myths people have built up about Tech football. We need to disenchant ourselves from those ot make any progress at all. Second, it shows that good programs do not - repeat not - go out looking for loses when they schedule. Our conference schedule is tough enough. Why, in the name of all that's holy, did we go out and schedule Ole Miss and USF as out of conference games? Stupidity? Masochism? Visions of sugar plums? My vote is for the last.

Final word: nobody cares who you beat as long as you beat them. Wake does play a fairly weak schedule. They were also 11 - 3 overall and 7 - 2 in conference. That's what people will remember a year from now. Just like they will remember three straight seasons with 3 wins at Tech.

 

[CEB]

We had six common opponents with wake. They went 3-3 against them, we were 2-4.
Assuming they play our schedule and are 3-3 after those six, I think wake beats NIU and Kennesaw. They get frog stomped by ND and UGAg. That puts them at 5- 5 with a road game at Miami and VT at home. They’re fighting to be bowl eligible with our schedule.
That said, I don’t find 11 wins for us on their schedule. they beat beat the people in front of them. We’ve had harder schedules but haven’t proven we can beat the people on front of us...

 

[Pointer]

very true but also a bit short sighted. We were Wake or better under Gailey and Johnson but in the era of the 4 team playoffs not really many people care whether you are 3 or 6th in the ACC Coastal or the SEC West or the B10 whatever they call their divisions. It would seen euphoric (momentarily) to get back to the 7 win average under the previous two coaches but that is not sustainable (imo). fans were upset with both at the end of their tenure. Whether that is right or wrong is the topic of another debate but I think we would agree that many people were ready for change near the end of the previous coach's tenure.Some might argue that our perception has been altered by the horror of the last 5-6 years but I think that scarring isn't permanent.

Lol Wake was no where near as good as the levels under Johnson. Not even close. We beat top rated blue bloods under Johnson. To the poster's point above, wake had a good record because they didn't beat anyone who was any good.
I would even say Gailey was more impressive than Wake's recent success as well.

 

[stech81]

Lol Wake was no where near as good as the levels under Johnson. Not even close. We beat top rated blue bloods under Johnson. To the poster's point above, wake had a good record because they didn't beat anyone who was any good.
I would even say Gailey was more impressive than Wake's recent success as well.

Wake had a good offense but I would have to say a poor defense. IMO

 

[takethepoints]

We had six common opponents with wake. They went 3-3 against them, we were 2-4.
Assuming they play our schedule and are 3-3 after those six, I think wake beats NIU and Kennesaw. They get frog stomped by ND and UGAg. That puts them at 5- 5 with a road game at Miami and VT at home. They’re fighting to be bowl eligible with our schedule.
That said, I don’t find 11 wins for us on their schedule. they beat beat the people in front of them. We’ve had harder schedules but haven’t proven we can beat the people on front of us...

I think they could have beat ND last year. I watched Cinny curb stomp ND and Wake is a very similar team. They could have whipped both Miami and VT as well. They easily beat UVA, a team that beat Miami and barely lost to VT. Well, we'll never settle this.

I will say, again, that I expect Wake to be just as good as they were last year, though their record may not be as spectacular. We'll see. And I repeat: if they can do it, Tech can do it. We might even do it with the same coach.

 

[slugboy]

If you’re a numbers person, Wake ended the season ranked #22 in FEI (opponent adjusted). Notre Dame was 6th, Pitt was 25th, Clemson was 27th, Army was 43rd, FSU was 46th, Coastal Carolina was 47th, and we were 97th (higher than I expected). Duke was 124th. UMass was last at 130.

So, Wake seems to have been a pretty good team.

2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders

As of July 2023, all FEI ratings and supporting data have been revised and republished here.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[gtrower]

I will say this (and I liked P-node as a person), our offensive scheming has no where to go but up. Look at this play from the UNC game last year, 6:29 in the video



We run a play with Gibbs to the left. Have the QB and the running back shift to the left, while all of the linemen pull to the right. I may just be ignorant, but shouldn't Gibbs be to the left of Yates and go the right when the play commences? That would allow Yates to read the free defender and give Gibbs additional blockers. Instead, both the QB and RB pretty much get tackled by the defender and kill the play.

You’re optimism is something. But we’re fielding basically an entirely new OL (again) and Gibbs Is gone. We’re going to be worse on offense. It’s inevitable.

You don’t subtract the likely Heisman from a bad offense and get better.

 

[cthenrys]

If you’re a numbers person, Wake ended the season ranked #22 in FEI (opponent adjusted). Notre Dame was 6th, Pitt was 25th, Clemson was 27th, Army was 43rd, FSU was 46th, Coastal Carolina was 47th, and we were 97th (higher than I expected). Duke was 124th. UMass was last at 130.

So, Wake seems to have been a pretty good team.

2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders

As of July 2023, all FEI ratings and supporting data have been revised and republished here.

www.footballoutsiders.com

That’s dumb. You’re obviously not following critical thinking. That 11-3 team is terrible.

 

[Billygoat91]

You’re optimism is something. But we’re fielding basically an entirely new OL (again) and Gibbs Is gone. We’re going to be worse on offense. It’s inevitable.

You don’t subtract the likely Heisman from a bad offense and get better.

I am not saying we will not miss Gibbs, just that the scheme will be better, or I am at least hoping it will be. Just because I am looking for a silver lining doesn't mean I think we have reason for to expect a great year. I fully expect another 3-9 year and a new head coach and AD a year from now.

There are many facets that can lead to improvement for an offense besides star power. CPJ's teams were an example of that just about every year. With our schedule, we can still improve and not have a better record.

I think the jury is out on Weinke, but at least Sims will have a dedicated QB coach this year. In all, the staff shake up is reason for some optimism. We have a more traditional qb coach and separate offensive coordinator (that have a history with each other), and united the db's under one coach which I hope helps the communication issues we had last year.

Spring is the time we have to look for positives so we can amp ourselves up for the season. I don't see the point in being a fan if I am just going to depress myself with it all the time.

 

[Eli]

I am not saying we will not miss Gibbs, just that the scheme will be better, or I am at least hoping it will be. Just because I am looking for a silver lining doesn't mean I think we have reason for to expect a great year. I fully expect another 3-9 year and a new head coach and AD a year from now.

There are many facets that can lead to improvement for an offense besides star power. CPJ's teams were an example of that just about every year. With our schedule, we can still improve and not have a better record.

I think the jury is out on Weinke, but at least Sims will have a dedicated QB coach this year. In all, the staff shake up is reason for some optimism. We have a more traditional qb coach and separate offensive coordinator (that have a history with each other), and united the db's under one coach which I hope helps the communication issues we had last year.

Spring is the time we have to look for positives so we can amp ourselves up for the season. I don't see the point in being a fan if I am just going to depress myself with it all the time.

I believe we go 5-7 and Chip Long becomes the next head coach at Tech. I know the guy doesn’t have HC experience but he reminds me so much of a George O’Leary from listening to his interviews

 

[GTBandit22]

You’re optimism is something. But we’re fielding basically an entirely new OL (again) and Gibbs Is gone. We’re going to be worse on offense. It’s inevitable.

You don’t subtract the likely Heisman from a bad offense and get better.

The new OL is the biggest concern, as we still haven’t fielded a competent group and lose 80% of our experience. Spring game did not look good.

That being said, we don’t have to be good on the OL to get better play there. We were historically not good there last year. Football outsiders has our standard down sack rate at 7.2%, good enough to be ranked 110th.

I’m hoping with a competent OC that doesn’t try to push the ball downfield all the time, plays to sims strengths, and TE emphasis, we can sustain drives more often and not get put into obvious pass down/distance constantly.

It sucks to lose a guy like Gibbs, but football is a team sport, and an offense is more than the sum of its parts. We would be better with him for sure, but we could be better than we were on offense even without him. In fact, we must be if we want to win more than 3

 

[GTBandit22]

.

That being said, we don’t have to be good on the OL to get better play there. We were historically not good there last year. Football outsiders has our standard down sack rate at 7.2%, good enough to be ranked 110th.

And it’s even worse than I thought: We were 120th at 8.4% sack rate. That is with two pretty mobile guys in Yates and Sims. Imagine if we had a pocket passer back there.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

None of us have any clue because Collins is still here and we all watched him bring Choice and Key down to his level instead of them pulling him up. Someone said the jury is still out on Weinke. He hasn’t coached a down yet so we have no clue if he’s a savant or a PNode. Everyone expects Long to be a magic man. The guy hasn’t called one game yet for GT and he didn’t set the world on fire at Tulane. When our OC is mainly known for his use of TE’s that makes me a little nervous. And the topper is that Collins is still the calling the shots. So, we have a proven failure at shot caller, an unproven QB coach, and an OC in reputation rebuild mode and a returning DC who has been the worst in GT history. I‘m still convinced it is impossible to be as bad as last year so I’m thinking 4-5 wins but if Collins becomes a known lame duck by the end of September these fragile kids of today will mentally quit and will be portal bound in their mind.

 

[Eli]

None of us have any clue because Collins is still here and we all watched him bring Choice and Key down to his level instead of them pulling him up. Someone said the jury is still out on Weinke. He hasn’t coached a down yet so we have no clue if he’s a savant or a PNode. Everyone expects Long to be a magic man. The guy hasn’t called one game yet for GT and he didn’t set the world on fire at Tulane. When our OC is mainly known for his use of TE’s that makes me a little nervous. And the topper is that Collins is still the calling the shots. So, we have a proven failure at shot caller, an unproven QB coach, and an OC in reputation rebuild mode and a returning DC who has been the worst in GT history. I‘m still convinced it is impossible to be as bad as last year so I’m thinking 4-5 wins but if Collins becomes a known lame duck by the end of September these fragile kids of today will mentally quit and will be portal bound in their mind.

Long has been solid everywhere.

 

[g0lftime]

There is verity in the CBS statement (That didn't go down well.). We do need a lighter schedule.

Can we trade with Wake?