ACC Preseason Prediction Thread

Peacone36

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1-UNC
2-Puke
3-Virginia
4-FSU
5-ND
6-Miami
7-NC State
8-Louisville
9-Wake
10-Cuse
11-VT
12-Pitt
13-GT
14-Clemson
15-BC

1st Team-M. Paige, M. Brogdon, D. Jackson, XRM, Brice Johnson

2nd Team- B. Ingram, J. Blossomgame, Cat Barber, Kennedy Meeks, D. Thomas

3rd Team- A. Gill, M. Gbinije, J. Artis, MGH, Angel Rodriguez

All-Rookie Team- B. Ingram, D. Bacon, C. Clarke, D. Moore, C. Jeter

POTY- Marcus Paige
ROTY-Brandon Ingram
COTY- Leonard Hamilton
 

orientalnc

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At this point I could see us anywhere from 6 to 15. We have some nice pieces and I think we could surprise this year. But, I need to see how all these pieces fit together when the opposition is more talented than the Bahamian guys. We should be more athletic than last year and I think we will be better shooters. Of course, maybe we won't be any better at either of those and be just as frustrating as last season.
 

dtm1997

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Not sure I can really slot the teams, but I think there's a clear top 3 of UNC, UVA, & dook. Then, a close tier of Miami (based on experience), FSU (major influx of talent plus some experience), & ND (a couple of very strong pieces, but lost some strong pieces). After that you have everyone else except BC (I think Louisville & Pitt will be overrated this year; Ville because of youth & controversy, Pitt because of weakening talent). Finally, you have BC who are incredibly young and have (on paper) fairly marginal talent outside of grad transfer Eli Carter & senior Denis Clifford.

Could we finish 7th? We could if things break our way and we execute well. Could we finish 14th? We could if coaching carries the day at Cuse, Pitt, Ville and improved talent carries it at Wake & VT.
 

orientalnc

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Not sure I can really slot the teams, but I think there's a clear top 3 of UNC, UVA, & dook. Then, a close tier of Miami (based on experience), FSU (major influx of talent plus some experience), & ND (a couple of very strong pieces, but lost some strong pieces). After that you have everyone else except BC (I think Louisville & Pitt will be overrated this year; Ville because of youth & controversy, Pitt because of weakening talent). Finally, you have BC who are incredibly young and have (on paper) fairly marginal talent outside of grad transfer Eli Carter & senior Denis Clifford.

Could we finish 7th? We could if things break our way and we execute well. Could we finish 14th? We could if coaching carries the day at Cuse, Pitt, Ville and improved talent carries it at Wake & VT.
I want to see how the trio of Miami, FSU, and ND adjust to their roster changes. ND, especially had a nice mix of guys and Jerian Grant was a key player for them. Miami is only as good as Rodrigues and McClelland. FSU has some good players on paper, but they were not really much better than us last year.

But I also need to see how our guys play in the OOC games. We are also a huge unknown. White and Jacobs and Smith may be a lot better than the guys who left, or maybe we will still have "not quite enough to compete" in the ACC and finish well down in the standings. I am hopeful and cautiously optimistic.
 

Peacone36

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We are a better, well rounded team this year in my opinion.

Jacobs >Cox
Smith >>>>>>Bolden

I am also one of the few who thought Robert Sampson hurt us on offense more than he helped us on defense and hopefully Lammers can take those minutes.
 

Ramblingon

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Being incredibly optimistic as I usually am before we've played a few games I'm shooting for 9th, 10th or 11th and maybe the NIT. This would probably keep CBG for another year. The whole thing depends on how well he takes the players on paper and translates them into a cohesive squad that can finish games.
 

orientalnc

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@Peacone36 I agree with the two comparisons you made. Not so sure I agree about Sampson. He was second on the team in rpg and committed fewer turnovers than Cox or Mitchell, neither of whom could play defense as well. I am not praising Robert, but he was an asset versus liability. My complaint about him was the ball never came back out once he got a feed from a guard or wing.

Looking at this year's lineup, I see this:

PG play needs to improve. Jorgenson, Heath, and Heyward averaged ~10 ppg as a group. Their assist/turnover ration was almost 2/1. That needs to improve if they are only scoring 10 points. Hopefully a fully recovered Jorgy will show marked improvement over last year. The question I have is why Heyward gets the minutes he does. Granted, he is a better defensive player than Heath or Jorgy, but he seems reluctant to shoot and only had 10 assists all season. Of the guys who played significant minutes, he was dead last in assists and scoring.

Wing play also needs to improve, but mostly needs more consistency. MGH is clearly our leader, but will likely spend more time this season tilting toward the #4 rather than the #2, as we will not have as much heft inside. Also, Smith should remove some of the pressure for him to take the last shot or to beat the clock on so many possessions. If Smith can give us 14 ppg, that will be huge, but he will be taking minutes away from Tadric, who was showing up at the end of last season like we hoped. Unless Q has gained some weight during off season, he may be the loser here. I would not be surprised for us to use a small lineup more this season, with MGH moving to #4 while Tadric and Smith played #2 and #3.

Inside last year we dominated the boards, but were also a highly automated turnover machine. Cox/Sampson/Mitchell/MGH turned the ball over more than 200 times. I am sure there could be a metric that shows how many rebounds were negated by subsequent turnovers, and, if there is, we may have won the ACC title for that stat. I agree that Jacobs should be better than Cox and hopefully White will be an improvement over Sampson. But, I hope Mitchell2015>Mitchell2014.

The bottom line is that I do not think a BG team at GT has averaged more that 67 ppg. That needs to improve unless our defense improves, or we will be in the same place again next year. In ACC games last year we averaged 61 ppg and gave up 66 ppg. Our style of play contributes to both those numbers, but we need to have a net improvement on 3 or more possession per game this season. Those turnovers, as well as improved shooting (and better shot selection), will have to make up for fewer rebounds and maybe a less effective defense.

But, to put some this into perspective, when we traveled to Durham to play Duke in February, we were 1-8 in the ACC. Except for the UVA game, if we replace, at most, three positive possessions for three negative ones in the other games we lost, we would have been 7-2. Duke, UNC, and UVA were clearly better teams and had far more talent than us, but we had a chance to win all but three of our ACC games. Including both ND, Louisville , and NC State.

We have to learn how to finish games. That means elevating our play in the final four minutes, but also not getting ourselves in the position of having to.
 

natureboy

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When you think about Tech basketball, you(well you use to)think about the great point guards we had. ..Mark, Kenny, Stephon, Jarrett, they were the "engines " that guided the train, sprinkled in some solid talent around them. Until Tech gets back to recruiting top notch point guards, and some solid recruiting classes, we are never going to compete. That's why if Coach BG doesn't get us to the tournament, we have to move on and try to convince Dayton coach Archie Miller to take over. I know some of you might ask ,"where's the money gonna come from ",don't worry they will find it. Like Apollo Creed said "no matter what ".
 

Peacone36

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I have been saying since his sophomore year that MGH should have plays run for him on the block. He has massive upper body strength for a 3 compared to the rest of the long athletic 3's in the ACC. I think he bull those guys down low. 3-4 times a game he should get that opportunity.

On Smith, after a little bit of math, if he shot 3's at the same rate per game CB did, at his career % and minutes per game, as a team we would have made 18 more 3s last season. Now that is very rough math because I didn't take into account minutes lost by others as Smith got almost 9mpg more than CB but that impact is quite substantial.

Also career wise:

CB- 1997 mins played, 100 TOs 102 Assists
Smith-2286 mins played 93 turnovers 109 assists

So we are getting a player who turns the ball over less while playing more minutes and scores more and more efficiently. Adam Smiths addition alone is probably worth 1.5-2.5 wins.
 

McCamish Maniacs

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I have been saying since his sophomore year that MGH should have plays run for him on the block. He has massive upper body strength for a 3 compared to the rest of the long athletic 3's in the ACC. I think he bull those guys down low. 3-4 times a game he should get that opportunity.

On Smith, after a little bit of math, if he shot 3's at the same rate per game CB did, at his career % and minutes per game, as a team we would have made 18 more 3s last season. Now that is very rough math because I didn't take into account minutes lost by others as Smith got almost 9mpg more than CB but that impact is quite substantial.

Also career wise:

CB- 1997 mins played, 100 TOs 102 Assists
Smith-2286 mins played 93 turnovers 109 assists

So we are getting a player who turns the ball over less while playing more minutes and scores more and more efficiently. Adam Smiths addition alone is probably worth 1.5-2.5 wins.

This is without factoring in the impact he could have on how defense's play us. Even though CB was the only player on the team with any semblance of a three point shot, I don't think he stretched the defense nearly as much as Adam will. Will open up the interior for Jacobs and Chuck to go to work
 

LibertyTurns

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Put me down for no lower than #11. We finish ahead of Pitt, VT, Wake & BC. Maybe we end up #9 if we get on a run and edge out Clemson & Cuse. Go Jackets!!!!
 

alagold

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My biggest concern is that all these key new guys have got to mesh new with old to be successful.There is more talent but PG has not shown the coaching ability to make a team win esp in close games. I think the PGuard play will be better MARGINALLY.The other guys are better too.So I see 3 more ACC wins at least but may not enough to get us to NIT.
 

Peacone36

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There are a few players throughout the land like that.

Caris Levert for Michigan
Denzel Valentine at MSU
Katin Reinhardt for USC

Are Mike Moser and Trey Zeigler suiting up this year too? (Tic)
 

Peacone36

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players I expect to have nice years nobody is talking about

Eli Carter at BC
Matt Jones at Puke
Kamari Murphy at Miami
Abdul Malik-Abu at NC State <-----big time breakout
Cornelius Hudson at Wake
 

bke1984

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@Peacone36 I agree with the two comparisons you made. Not so sure I agree about Sampson. He was second on the team in rpg and committed fewer turnovers than Cox or Mitchell, neither of whom could play defense as well. I am not praising Robert, but he was an asset versus liability. My complaint about him was the ball never came back out once he got a feed from a guard or wing.

I would say he was a non-factor on offense, but that's not true...you could always count on him to chuck up an ill-advised three once or twice a game...

He was definitely a liability on the offensive end of the court.
 

slugboy

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I'm counting about 8-9 months since the last time I saw the Jackets play basketball, and last season is getting hazy for me. I remember poor shooting, especially outside, a lot of turnovers, and 4/5ths of a good defense (with one guy on defense flaking out and leaving an easy basket open). I remember poor ball movement mainly because I could contrast it with what the other team was doing. My memory might need a lot of correcting.
We've had a lot of changes (White, Jacobs, and Smith). I only see Ogbonda as a freshman. So, we should be better in talent and more mature, and hopefully healthier.
Will we play any different? Will it look like last year, with slightly better players, or will some of the holes in our offense and defense get fixed?
 
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