ACC - Odds to Win Conference 2021

[FlatsLander]

That's just unnecessarily negative. There are certainly plenty of bad stats to point out from last year - defensive efficiency, penalties, turnovers, kicking.

But there's also a lot of positives:
Points: Up 50%
Offensive Yardage: Up 35%
QB comp %: Up 22%
QB yards: Up 27%
QB total TDs: Up 40%
Yards per rush: Up 15%

We return the top 5 rushers.
We return 5 of the top 7 receivers.
We return 14 of the top 17 tacklers on defense.

We filled tremendous areas of need in the transfer portal, including:
1) The #2 receiver from Northwestern with 4 years of experience.
2) 2 talented offensive linemen in Devin Cochran (32 games played and pre-season all-SEC in 2019) and Nick Pendley
3) One of the nations leaders in tackles-for-loss in Keion White
4) High 3-star LB Ayinde Eley from Maryland, who with 79 tackles would have been 1 tackle out of 2nd place on Georgia Tech's team.
5) 4-star LB Kevin Harris from Alabama
6) High 4-star DB Kenyatta Watson from Texas
7) 4-year Kicker Brent Cimaglia from Tennessee - a career 74% kicker. Never missed a kick under 30 yards. 85% career inside 40 yards.

The title of the article is all the small things. It's only about fixing the small things, which the coaches have also said need to be heavily improved.

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

When you are 95th in the NCAA in PPG, then offensive scoring up 50% isn't really much to crow about. Those offensive stats, other than yards per rush, had nowhere to go but up anyways.

Returning the top rushers is huge, but the top receivers stat is still questionable. Gibbs was our second best receiver in terms of yds (and our top returning receiver) and having him back is a plus, but it speaks to the fact that we need a WR to step up and claim that #1 spot. As for defense, I'd like to believe we will be better. We can't get much worse there.

Your bottom paragraph I largely agree with. There are some good players coming in. Hopefully they can assimilate quickly and their production can push us over the hump this year.

We have got to stop saying this haha. It can always be worse. We know this.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We have got to stop saying this haha. It can always be worse. We know this.

Yep, but intellectual honesty/accuracy/fairness aren't in his wheel house. The truth is that the offense put ourselves in a position to score more than the 24 points per game that we did. We lost 20 direct points from missed kicks. We lost many more points from being too afraid to kick, so we were going for it on 4th and long and crap like that. There's nothing wrong with averaging 400 points per game, especially considering we played 4 of the top 25 defenses in the country in our 9 games. georgia's offense averaged 424 yards per game by comparison.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Yep, but intellectual honesty/accuracy/fairness aren't in his wheel house. The truth is that the offense put ourselves in a position to score more than the 24 points per game that we did. We lost 20 direct points from missed kicks. We lost many more points from being too afraid to kick, so we were going for it on 4th and long and crap like that. There's nothing wrong with averaging 400 points per game, especially considering we played 4 of the top 25 defenses in the country in our 9 games.

How has anything I said been intellectually dishonest, unfair, or inaccurate? Everything I posted was 100% accurate and fair. We have been a bad team for two years now. That was largely to be expected based on the type of personnel change we are going through based on the scheme change. I have lobbied hard for our fan base to give CGC time to get his guys in the system before judging him, including giving him this season.

If anyone here is being intellectually dishonest/inaccurate/unfair it's the poster who keeps expecting every sports writer to publish columns talking about how great we are going to be and creating gripe threads when they don't...

 

[forensicbuzz]

Ok, so question. Purely hypothetical, Let's say we win 5 this year, jump to 7 in year 4 win 8 in year 5 and drop back to 7 or 6 in year 6. During this period we do not beat either Clemson or UGA. What happens in year 7? is it time to change coaches? We will have not achieved what CPJ did but basically did what Chan did.

I know this is a new response to an older post, but I've been thinking about this scenario since you wrote it.

To me, the answer is "it depends." It depends on what the team "looks" like, how they're playing, how they're developing, how the coaching looks, how...a lot of things. If our opponents are at the same level they were in 2001 to 2007, then 7 wins isn't good enough. If they're better, like they are now, then it will depend on how we play.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

That's just unnecessarily negative. There are certainly plenty of bad stats to point out from last year - defensive efficiency, penalties, turnovers, kicking.

But there's also a lot of positives:
Points: Up 50%
Offensive Yardage: Up 35%
QB comp %: Up 22%
QB yards: Up 27%
QB total TDs: Up 40%
Yards per rush: Up 15%

We return the top 5 rushers.
We return 5 of the top 7 receivers.
We return 14 of the top 17 tacklers on defense.

We filled tremendous areas of need in the transfer portal, including:
1) The #2 receiver from Northwestern with 4 years of experience.
2) 2 talented offensive linemen in Devin Cochran (32 games played and pre-season all-SEC in 2019) and Nick Pendley
3) One of the nations leaders in tackles-for-loss in Keion White
4) High 3-star LB Ayinde Eley from Maryland, who with 79 tackles would have been 1 tackle out of 2nd place on Georgia Tech's team.
5) 4-star LB Kevin Harris from Alabama
6) High 4-star DB Kenyatta Watson from Texas
7) 4-year Kicker Brent Cimaglia from Tennessee - a career 74% kicker. Never missed a kick under 30 yards. 85% career inside 40 yards.

Thanks for all that. The off season is always a time for optimism. But I’m 50 years old so I’m way past the point I was in my 20’s and 30’s where I’d convince myself of how we would win the ACC every year or how every GT player would improve year to year. I’m at the point where I’ve seen it all so I fully realize it all comes down to the plays in the game. Does my gold colored side think we can be very solid? Heck yes. Sims looks like a body chiseled for football and Gibbs looks like the best RB in the nation to my gold colored self. But, I’ve also seen a fluke broken arm by a QB making a tackle lose us the Coastal. I’ve seen a slap to the head cost us the Coastal. I’ve seen the last best RB we’ve had not properly prepare his body after we all thought he’d be a Heisman candidate. And I haven’t see any semblance of a GT defense for a consistent season since I was in my 30’s.

I truly believe the methodology being used by Collins is the only way to build up GT. But it’s a long process and may not net the program we all want until the the 2nd or 3rd generation of the process. But this process will attract the players to win because the players exist within this state. Somewhere is a middle school skinny QB who could be our Trevor Lawrence. While this current RB group is good to great maybe their true talent is showing the next Bo/Herschel that GT is now a destination. I am always optimistic but the Clemson game will be the first true test of Collins as GT head coach. I don’t care about anything that happened the past two seasons other than recruiting. But if Collins gets run off the field in Clemson then that will speak volumes. I’m pulling for him because if he doesn’t succeed then where do we go from there?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

How has anything I said been intellectually dishonest, unfair, or inaccurate? Everything I posted was 100% accurate and fair. We have been a bad team for two years now. That was largely to be expected based on the type of personnel change we are going through based on the scheme change. I have lobbied hard for our fan base to give CGC time to get his guys in the system before judging him, including giving him this season.

If anyone here is being intellectually dishonest/inaccurate/unfair it's the poster who keeps expecting every sports writer to publish columns talking about how great we are going to be and creating gripe threads when they don't...

Because of the words out of your mouth. I never stated what you said I did and I haven't implied it either. In fact in my post up above, I noted several things we were bad about last year. Being only 1-sided and only on the negative side is not accurate nor fair.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Because of the words out of your mouth. I never stated what you said I did and I haven't implied it either. In fact in my post up above, I noted several things we were bad about last year. Being only 1-sided and only on the negative side is not accurate nor fair.

I've had plenty of positives to say. I just tend to think the fairest assessment of this team right now doesn't lend well to gold colored glasses. I also don't factor in the "almosts" when assessing a team. Regardless, I'll be in my seats this year cheering on my team. I just don't think trying to make a 23 point per game average (that just happened to be improved over probably the worst GT football season in a generation) and the associated "improved" offensive stats into some kind of saving grace is honest, accurate or fair.

To me, what would be honest, accurate, and fair is to simply say we sucked as a football team for the last two years. We will most likely be bad, though much improved, this year as well. However, with Sims and Gibbs returning, several quality transfers, and a couple of solid recruiting classes churning the roster, the prognosis for a return to good football isn't long in the making. Maybe that happens this season. Probably it does not. Our team will most likely at least play like a real team this year, without the stupid mistakes so prevalent over the last two seasons.

There is a reason that the press hasn't turned on CGC yet. Every expert out there knew what GT was going to go through when CPJ left. I said on these very boards a few years ago that when he left it would take at least 5 years to rebuild this team. That was before the loosening of the transfer rules, however. I now believe we will go bowling again in 2022. Throwing a fit because the press doesn't respect us is a bad look for GT fans. I'd much rather we just accept where we are and work on fixing it. CGC is doing so and so far seems to be doing a good job of it.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Thanks for all that. The off season is always a time for optimism. But I’m 50 years old so I’m way past the point I was in my 20’s and 30’s where I’d convince myself of how we would win the ACC every year or how every GT player would improve year to year. I’m at the point where I’ve seen it all so I fully realize it all comes down to the plays in the game. Does my gold colored side think we can be very solid? Heck yes. Sims looks like a body chiseled for football and Gibbs looks like the best RB in the nation to my gold colored self. But, I’ve also seen a fluke broken arm by a QB making a tackle lose us the Coastal. I’ve seen a slap to the head cost us the Coastal. I’ve seen the last best RB we’ve had not properly prepare his body after we all thought he’d be a Heisman candidate. And I haven’t see any semblance of a GT defense for a consistent season since I was in my 30’s.

I truly believe the methodology being used by Collins is the only way to build up GT. But it’s a long process and may not net the program we all want until the the 2nd or 3rd generation of the process. But this process will attract the players to win because the players exist within this state. Somewhere is a middle school skinny QB who could be our Trevor Lawrence. While this current RB group is good to great maybe their true talent is showing the next Bo/Herschel that GT is now a destination. I am always optimistic but the Clemson game will be the first true test of Collins as GT head coach. I don’t care about anything that happened the past two seasons other than recruiting. But if Collins gets run off the field in Clemson then that will speak volumes. I’m pulling for him because if he doesn’t succeed then where do we go from there?

I'm almost in total agreement with you here. I'd only hedge to say that the CGC method isn't the only way, but it might well be the very best way.

 

[Pointer]

Only place to go is up.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we ended up having a special season next year, purely based on the fact that this is Tech and you should expect the unexpected.

 

[GTpdm]

Dammit man, So now we will only win 2? How about predicting 12 wins instead?

Why stop at twelve? I’d rather see him predict thirty wins...

 

[GTpdm]

Yep, but intellectual honesty/accuracy/fairness aren't in his wheel house. The truth is that the offense put ourselves in a position to score more than the 24 points per game that we did. We lost 20 direct points from missed kicks. We lost many more points from being too afraid to kick, so we were going for it on 4th and long and crap like that. There's nothing wrong with averaging 400 points per game, especially considering we played 4 of the top 25 defenses in the country in our 9 games. georgia's offense averaged 424 yards per game by comparison.

400 points per game? I’ll have some of that, please!

 

[Coloradojacket]

Thanks for all that. The off season is always a time for optimism. But I’m 50 years old so I’m way past the point I was in my 20’s and 30’s where I’d convince myself of how we would win the ACC every year or how every GT player would improve year to year. I’m at the point where I’ve seen it all so I fully realize it all comes down to the plays in the game. Does my gold colored side think we can be very solid? Heck yes. Sims looks like a body chiseled for football and Gibbs looks like the best RB in the nation to my gold colored self. But, I’ve also seen a fluke broken arm by a QB making a tackle lose us the Coastal. I’ve seen a slap to the head cost us the Coastal. I’ve seen the last best RB we’ve had not properly prepare his body after we all thought he’d be a Heisman candidate. And I haven’t see any semblance of a GT defense for a consistent season since I was in my 30’s.

I truly believe the methodology being used by Collins is the only way to build up GT. But it’s a long process and may not net the program we all want until the the 2nd or 3rd generation of the process. But this process will attract the players to win because the players exist within this state. Somewhere is a middle school skinny QB who could be our Trevor Lawrence. While this current RB group is good to great maybe their true talent is showing the next Bo/Herschel that GT is now a destination. I am always optimistic but the Clemson game will be the first true test of Collins as GT head coach. I don’t care about anything that happened the past two seasons other than recruiting. But if Collins gets run off the field in Clemson then that will speak volumes. I’m pulling for him because if he doesn’t succeed then where do we go from there?

I like the positivity but there is something that seems to be forgotten on this site. Trevor Lawrence could not have gotten in Tech or stayed there. Words directly from his parents mouth. Sat behind them at the Clemson game. Bo nor Herschel could get in Tech either. Maybe we should say another Jerry Mays or Robert Lavette. So we will always need to out scheme most of our schedule as has been proven many times. And right now I am not seeing that. Maybe this year CDP will change things up.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Dammit man, So now we will only win 2? How about predicting 12 wins instead?

Well, we are more likely to win only 2 than to win 12 but the probability of either coming true is still very small.

 

[ugacdawg]

There's nothing wrong with averaging 400 points per game, especially considering we played 4 of the top 25 defenses in the country in our 9 games. georgia's offense averaged 424 yards per game by comparison.

While I’m sure GT‘s offense will continue to get better, I wouldn’t necessarily use UGA last year as the measuring stick - it was the worst offense fielded by a Kirby team yet - and led by a 4th string walk-on QB for the first 3/4 of the season. Against UF the UGA QBs were 9 of 29 for 112 yards and three picks. 3.9 yards per attempt. While Daniels raised that to 10.3 y/a when he started playing, if the UGA offense looks anywhere close to 2020 again someone is getting fired.

 

[Pointer]

While I’m sure GT‘s offense will continue to get better, I wouldn’t necessarily use UGA last year as the measuring stick - it was the worst offense fielded by a Kirby team yet - and led by a 4th string walk-on QB for the first 3/4 of the season. Against UF the UGA QBs were 9 of 29 for 112 yards and three picks. 3.9 yards per attempt. While Daniels raised that to 10.3 y/a when he started playing, if the UGA offense looks anywhere close to 2020 again someone is getting fired.

First of all, how does this make you feel?

Second of all, good point.

 

[ugacdawg]

First of all, how does this make you feel?

Well, I assume you mean the absurd performance at the most important position on the field? Well, that’s a bit tough considering they were bringing in a new offense during a COVID year with no Spring. And then you add that the transfer who took all the snaps for first team bailed with a week to go before the season started. And add to that Fromm leaving early which was probably a mistake and the position was tougher than normal - I give Kirby credit for continually hunting talent - bringing in JT on top of Newman turned out to be brilliant - but having JT on scout team the week of the UF game so he didn’t know any of the strategy when your other QBs cratered was bone-headed at best.

In the end there are zero excuses. Saban, Day, Kelly and Swinney had the same COVID year and they found a way (yeah some paths are easier - is what it is). I don’t care about those other issues - maybe it was a perfect storm of bad luck but that’s what you are paid to navigate. Kirby needs to do better.

However, I’m also not one of those idiots who says it’s do or die for Kirby and it’s natty or bust. The talent is there, so the expectations are too. He has UGA with a chance each year - and there are not many teams who can say that every year - so if they don’t get it done this year, keep tweaking and restocking and restacking talent until it all clicks.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

so WHEN they don’t get it done this year, keep tweaking and restocking and restacking talent until it all clicks.

FIFY. Yea, keep restocking, restacking, and spending $50 million a year on football.

 

[takethepoints]

So we will always need to out scheme most of our schedule as has been proven many times. And right now I am not seeing that. Maybe this year CDP will change things up.

All you have to do is look at the record of Tech coaches and one thing immediately stands out: the ones with innovative offensive schemes tend to have the best chance of consistent winning and hitting the heights. The others can do ok - Chan did - but have problems getting to the upper levels. This is, as was said above, due to recruiting problems. Recruiting consistently in the upper thirties - like Wisconsin - might be possible, though this has not been shown so far.

This is not a knock on Collins; h's a good recruiter and the new transfer scheme might help us. The problem there is that our opponents are also headed by good recruiters and troll successfully for transfers as well. Imho, we really do have to have some kind of equalizer, especially on offense. Whether the present staff can deliver on that is still a question.

 

[4shotB]

All you have to do is look at the record of Tech coaches and one thing immediately stands out: the ones with innovative offensive schemes tend to have the best chance of consistent winning and hitting the heights. The others can do ok - Chan did - but have problems getting to the upper levels. This is, as was said above, due to recruiting problems. Recruiting consistently in the upper thirties - like Wisconsin - might be possible, though this has not been shown so far.

This is not a knock on Collins; h's a good recruiter and the new transfer scheme might help us. The problem there is that our opponents are also headed by good recruiters and troll successfully for transfers as well. Imho, we really do have to have some kind of equalizer, especially on offense. Whether the present staff can deliver on that is still a question.

I would push back just a bit on your premise. GO'L (w/RF), CG and PJ did wonderful things while here and I certainly am not trying to diminish what they achieved. What I am hoping for is for a coach, who while maybe not known as an offensive guru, can field a more balanced and complete team. In other words, the three coaches I mentioned had glaring weaknesses on one side of the ball and/or ST's. Whether that was through bad hires, schemes, budget constraints or recruiting - or a mixture of these- is (and has been) open to debate. I think a head coach (along with AD support) who can field a competent or better unit in all 3 phases simultaneously can take us to our desired level of play consistently without the need for "genius" level of O or D coordinators. I don't know if GC will become that guy but it's way too early for me anyways to say that he can't.