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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 313545" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>I'll play the odds in all cases (and be wrong). L'Ville wins all, top seeds (UNC, Wake, UVa) win their divisions.</p><p></p><p>Not only are the top seeds the best but while it is 100% single elimination for the second and third tier of each bracket, it is sort of 65% elimination for the top seed. Logic:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Say the top seed loses to the middle seed, then the middle seed is favored probably 60/40 to beat the lower seed and finish the sweep. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Say the top seed loses to the lowest seed, the the lowest seed is the 40/60 underdog. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Kind of averages out to a 50/50 chance that the two lower seed will do the sweep. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The top seed has to win their second game, which they are like 70% likely to do.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">So given a top seed loss, they are still ~35% likely to advance (=50%*70%).</li> </ul><p>Here's who I'd like to win it all:</p><p>1) GT</p><p>2) UVa</p><p>3) Wake</p><p>4) NC State</p><p>5) BC</p><p>6) None of the above will be a fitting end for me for a crappy year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 313545, member: 322"] I'll play the odds in all cases (and be wrong). L'Ville wins all, top seeds (UNC, Wake, UVa) win their divisions. Not only are the top seeds the best but while it is 100% single elimination for the second and third tier of each bracket, it is sort of 65% elimination for the top seed. Logic: [LIST] [*]Say the top seed loses to the middle seed, then the middle seed is favored probably 60/40 to beat the lower seed and finish the sweep. [*]Say the top seed loses to the lowest seed, the the lowest seed is the 40/60 underdog. [*]Kind of averages out to a 50/50 chance that the two lower seed will do the sweep. [*]The top seed has to win their second game, which they are like 70% likely to do. [*]So given a top seed loss, they are still ~35% likely to advance (=50%*70%). [/LIST] Here's who I'd like to win it all: 1) GT 2) UVa 3) Wake 4) NC State 5) BC 6) None of the above will be a fitting end for me for a crappy year. [/QUOTE]
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