ACC 2018 Power Rankings--USA Today

[Deleted member 2897]

We were incredibly unlucky in 2017, however we were incredibly lucky in 2016. Combine these 2 years and we were, what, 14-10. That probably is where we are, about a 7-5 team.

Right. But that's 8-8 in the ACC in the last 2 years, which ranks 6th.

 

[smathis30]

Agree with most of this, but:

1. Virginia Tech only returns 5 on D, and they lost Settle and Motuapaka from the front 7. That would seem to hurt them.

2. Louisville returns 6 starters on offense and 3 on defense. That doesn't align with "...they basically keep everyone but Lamar Jackson..."

3. FSU only returns 4 starters on D.

Link: http://everythingcfb.com/2018-returning-starters-129-fbs-teams/

Thought I caught everyone from the NFL draft!

I'll go update

 

[InsideLB]

Historically we struggle on O when we replace guys up the middle: QB, BB, G-C-G. This year we have QB & BB are more experienced and deeper. With another year and A. Marshall back I like the experience and depth at center. G looks reaonable.

AB are set. WR is a questionmark though Stewart and Camp have a lot of reps...likely will block just fine.

D we will have to wait and see. Likely we will get torched but can get some stops via turnovers and negative plays.

IMO we have potential. However the ACC is tougher, our SOS is strong, and the football gods are fickle. Just depends on how hard the guys work and catching our share of the breaks.

 

[smathis30]

Alright I updated my preseason rankings thanks to that link @TheTechGuy Provided
Tiers are relatively interchangable, as seen through how close those teams are to eachother.
[Points (which is Offensive Score + Defensive Score, which are both standardized to their respective SOS), National Rank]

Tier 1. Title Contendors
1. [214, 1] Clemson

Tier 2. Top of the Divisions
2. [194, 11] Wake Forest
3. [191, 14] Louisville. A drop, and I really do expect them to drop more. Losing their almost 2x Heisman QB will reflect pretty quick once the season goes, at least for most stats that keep preseason rankings for a little, espsecially as my rankings had them as the #2 offense behind UCF last year
4. [190, 17] Miami
5. [187, 24] Boston College

Tier 3. Bowl elgible, and competitive
6. [179, 33] Syracuse
7. [178, 35] Duke
8. [178, 36] Georgia Tech
9. [178, 38] Florida State
10. [176,39] Virginia Tech
11. [175, 43] NC State

Tier 4. Bottom of the Barrel, Rebuilding coastal
12. [168,49] UVA
13. [166, 51] Pitt
14. [161, 55] UNC

 

[iceeater1969]

Honestly Seem pretty fair to me tbh.

I went ahead and updated my rankings with taking into account how many starters are returning and how teams on average do with that many starters returning and got the following projections. I wills say that at the beginning of the season, with preseason rankings, SOS has a way larger effect than anticipated, so teams with strong schedules and lots of returning pieces are a lot higher than expected. Tiers are rather interchangeable.



Tier 1. Contenders
1. [213 points, 1 overall] Clemson (Duh)

Tier 2. Coastal Contender, and someone has to get second in the Atlantic right?
2. [196,9]Wake Forest. Suprised here, but the gap between 2-4 is tiny. Returns basically everyone from an 8 win team
3. [195,11]Louisville. Surprised here agian, and I expect them to be lower. But they basically keep everyone but Lamar Jackson, who was their everything. Their weakpoint last year was sloppy line play on both sides, and another year of experience should tone that down.
4. [191, 17]Miami . Best defense in the coastal the past 3 years returns a ton of fire power. Say what you want about the rain slowing GT down last year, but rain goes both ways and Miami scored 6 points in 5 red zone trips. Sunny Weather changes that too.

Tier 3. Division Contenders
5. [186, 27]Virginia Tech. Although their secondary takes a beating in graduation and NFL careers, they return almost everyone on an offense that should continue to improve. Keeping a majority of their front 7 will keep the VT Defense being the VT defense we know and hate
6. [185, 29]Florida State. Sloppy beginning of the season, but losing your starting QB game 1 is a game changer. Coach quitting mentally half way through also hurts. They were really good on paper, and a few tough breaks away from an 8 win season (like GT) last year.

Tier 4. Looking at Bowls. As you look at the overall projected ranking, you can see that almost all of this tier is interchangable
7. [179,35]. Syracuse. Dino Barbers finally has enough upper classman that he recruited to make things click.
8. [179, 36] Boston College. Lose a bit on both sides of the ball, but we saw what happened in the second half of the season when the offense clicked
9. [178, 37] NC State Lose a lot of NFL level talent on defense, but they return most of their offense.
10. [178, 38] Georgia Tech. Return a lot of big peices on O, but losing the entirety of the secondary will still show through a new scheme.
11. [179, 39] Duke. Snuck their way into a 7 win season last year. Pretty managable OOC will make them look good again.

Tier 5. ~~ReBuildInG~~
12. [168,47] Pitt. Still got a ways to go, but looking at sharing the 3 way title to being the armpit of the coastal
13. [166, 48] UVA-still program building
14. [158, 60] UNC- Feodra gets fired?

Thanks for posting a detailed opinion.
When u are looking at the ACC in 18, whats your take on returning QB s?

Will S cuse have an experienced qb? I thought their coach was trying to be a very pass oriented program.

With our new defense i hope we face a lot of new qb s! (Having a defense that doesn't give the qb 7 seconds to throw a dump pass will be quite a change. ).

My review indicates we only face talented and experienced qb at uga, mia, duke, vt.

Your ideas would be appreciated.

 

[smathis30]

When u are looking at the ACC in 18, whats your take on returning QB s?
Top Tier:
NCSU, Clemson, FSU if Frenchy is healthy, upper middle if its blackman

Upper Middle:
Syracuse (If healthy), Miami,

Lower Middle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Pitt, UNC, Wake forest (he started last year, before an injury)

Newbie
Wake Forest, Louisville, Duke, BC, UVA


Will S cuse have an experienced qb? I thought their coach was trying to be a very pass oriented program.
Its Eric Dungy's Senior year, and he's led the team every single year so far. He's gotten injured every year IIRC, and they did lose 2 WR, but they still return a bit of depth on both sides of the ball this year. 7 Senior Starters, including QB, 2 WR, and 2 O-lineman.

With our new defense i hope we face a lot of new qb s! (Having a defense that doesn't give the qb 7 seconds to throw a dump pass will be quite a change. ).

My review indicates we only face talented and experienced qb at uga, mia, duke, vt.
this is true for the most part, and experienced QB's can take advantadge of that. However, with the switch from a nickle to a 3-4 package, there are going to be some growing pains with the front 7 more or less having to have to learn a new position. In situations like that, you want to rely on a strong secondary, at least until some of the kinks get knocked out. Unfortunately, GT lost the entirety of its starting secondary this offseason to graduation/injuries, (and with returning snaps in the secondary being the singlehanded highest indicator of success on D in an upcoming season) I think this will be a very long season on defense again. Our front 7 should hopefully take some of that pressure off of the fresh off the boat backfield with the new scheme, but they are definitely going to struggle against expereinced QBs

As for the schedule for FBS opponents
USF- new QB
Pitt-after rotating through 3 QBs last season, one starter will be nice. Some experience here
Clemson- Bryant tore us a new one last year
BGSU- split QBs last season. both are young,
UL- New QB. Jawon Pass looked respectable in garbage time
Duke- Daniel Jones played very well against us last year. Losing Shaun Williams is a bigger loss to their Offense.
VT- Josh Jackson started hot, then went back to average. I expect the same this year
UNC- Also had a QB carosell, so its hard to pin them down. Everyone saw snaps last year though
Miami- Malik was very incosistent. One of the tops in Interceptions, but they still went 10-3. He had to carry once they lost Walton against FSU
UVA- Transfer QB from Arizona State. Haven't seen much
UGA- Jake From State Farm should have another great season. Their Defense carried them last year, and won't do the same this year. Should easily win their division, but Florida and Mizzou might make things interesting.



Your ideas would be appreciated.

 

[JacketFromUGA]

I read Phil Steele’s write up on Tech in his magazine the other day.

He expects ‘18 to be “pointing up like it was in ‘16”

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Alright I updated my preseason rankings thanks to that link @TheTechGuy Provided
Tiers are relatively interchangable, as seen through how close those teams are to eachother.
[Points (which is Offensive Score + Defensive Score, which are both standardized to their respective SOS), National Rank]

Tier 1. Title Contendors
1. [214, 1] Clemson

Tier 2. Top of the Divisions
2. [194, 11] Wake Forest
3. [191, 14] Louisville. A drop, and I really do expect them to drop more. Losing their almost 2x Heisman QB will reflect pretty quick once the season goes, at least for most stats that keep preseason rankings for a little, espsecially as my rankings had them as the #2 offense behind UCF last year
4. [190, 17] Miami
5. [187, 24] Boston College

Tier 3. Bowl elgible, and competitive
6. [179, 33] Syracuse
7. [178, 35] Duke
8. [178, 36] Georgia Tech
9. [178, 38] Florida State
10. [176,39] Virginia Tech
11. [175, 43] NC State

Tier 4. Bottom of the Barrel, Rebuilding coastal
12. [168,49] UVA
13. [166, 51] Pitt
14. [161, 55] UNC

OK that is better. Now you need to go back and tweak it one more time to reflect that Bud is still the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech and as long as that remains the case and until proven otherwise that fact alone will get the Hokies into the top half. Is this hyperbole? Yep, but with more than a little truth. Down through the years, his defense has kept them competitive all through bad offensive lines (generally most of the time) sometimes good sometimes not so good quarterbacking, sometimes great but not always running backs and a general up and down offense. Having Wake and BC in the second tier? I will believe it when I see it. Ditto Louisville. They will always be able to pass and have good athletes but that can only go so far. Right now, the only teams in the ACC that are truly legit are Clemson and Miami. FSU and Virginia Tech are semi legit based on past performance but they may be on a slippery slope. By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with where you put GT. Seems about right after last year but make no mistake this team is dangerous and can ruin a frontrunner's season in one afternoon. Question is are the Jackets more dangerous to opponents or themselves?

 

[Jacket in Dairyland]

We were incredibly unlucky in 2017, however we were incredibly lucky in 2016. Combine these 2 years and we were, what, 14-10. That probably is where we are, about a 7-5 team.

+++++ As much as we want it to be otherwise, it is what it is. Let's hope that this team will play with a chip on their shoulder and go out and earn some respect. Excuses are for losers !!

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

OK that is better. Now you need to go back and tweak it one more time to reflect that Bud is still the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech and as long as that remains the case and until proven otherwise that fact alone will get the Hokies into the top half. Is this hyperbole? Yep, but with more than a little truth. Down through the years, his defense has kept them competitive all through bad offensive lines (generally most of the time) sometimes good sometimes not so good quarterbacking, sometimes great but not always running backs and a general up and down offense. Having Wake and BC in the second tier? I will believe it when I see it. Ditto Louisville. They will always be able to pass and have good athletes but that can only go so far. Right now, the only teams in the ACC that are truly legit are Clemson and Miami. FSU and Virginia Tech are semi legit based on past performance but they may be on a slippery slope. By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with where you put GT. Seems about right after last year but make no mistake this team is dangerous and can ruin a frontrunner's season in one afternoon. Question is are the Jackets more dangerous to opponents or themselves?

Not sure why you say Miami is legit, but FSU is only semi-legit. Miami may be on an upswing, but they really haven't shown me anything yet. But for 5 bubble-screens and a freak tipped ball, Tech would have beat them last year, and I think we will this year. FSU may be somewhat down right now, but I still consider them legit, and unfortunately, I look for them to return to the top very soon.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Not sure why you say Miami is legit, but FSU is only semi-legit. Miami may be on an upswing, but they really haven't shown me anything yet. But for 5 bubble-screens and a freak tipped ball, Tech would have beat them last year, and I think we will this year. FSU may be somewhat down right now, but I still consider them legit, and unfortunately, I look for them to return to the top very soon.

And that's being nice. It took a miracle to beat one of the worst FSU teams in the history of their program. It took a miracle to beat a 5-6 Georgia Tech team. It took until the last drive to come back and beat a Syracuse team who has been at the bottom of the ACC for some time. A horrible UNC team beset by injuries basically gave the game away on a horrible fumble in the last couple minutes - Miami won by 5. They lost to one of the worst Pittsburgh teams we've seen in some time and got throttled by Clemson, losing by more than any other of Clemson's 12 FBS opponents.

 

[smathis30]

OK that is better. Now you need to go back and tweak it one more time to reflect that Bud is still the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech and as long as that remains the case and until proven otherwise that fact alone will get the Hokies into the top half. Is this hyperbole? Yep, but with more than a little truth. Down through the years, his defense has kept them competitive all through bad offensive lines (generally most of the time) sometimes good sometimes not so good quarterbacking, sometimes great but not always running backs and a general up and down offense. Having Wake and BC in the second tier? I will believe it when I see it. Ditto Louisville. They will always be able to pass and have good athletes but that can only go so far. Right now, the only teams in the ACC that are truly legit are Clemson and Miami. FSU and Virginia Tech are semi legit based on past performance but they may be on a slippery slope. By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with where you put GT. Seems about right after last year but make no mistake this team is dangerous and can ruin a frontrunner's season in one afternoon. Question is are the Jackets more dangerous to opponents or themselves?

oh i agree. Every team between 6-11 is neck and neck, with all them teams jumping from 11 to 6 simply if they outperform what my computer expectations were by 1% on both offense and defense. Its a very, very, small gap.

Miami is the only team I expect to stay in Tier 2. Louisville is artificially high due to their offense blowing everyone out of the water, so even witha reduction down to 6 starters, they only have an estimated 8% drop off in efficiency with that number, but with Lamar gone, we know common sense will prevail and they will drop harder. Last year, they were 15% higher on Offense than the #25 team, so their offense still looks elite because of that. Them , UCF, and OU were in a league of their own last year.

Wake forest and BC are definitely see-it-to-believe it type teams, but BC has had consistently good Defense, and their offense came alive and gave them a 7 win season last year. Wake was inches away from a 9 win season. BC has a super easy OOC this year, with Umass, Temple, Purdue and a FCS team. Purdue should be a challenge, but Boston college does return the most starters from any ACC team this year, at 18.

Wake foerst takes on Tulane, Notre Dame, Rice, and a FCS school. So ND is the only written up loss. Behind Clemson's 16, they return the third most starers, and they get the 1st string quarterback back from injury last year. Its important to note that BC is a half step above Tier 3, and a bigger half step below tier 2. For Tier 3 teams to jump up, they need a 7% overpeformance from what my cpu-projection is on both sides of the ball, and a 3% to pass BC.

Tier 1-
Tier 2 (-7%, -11% for BC)
Tier 3 (-7%, -3% for BC)
Tier 4 (-5%)

Is how that shakes up to be.

 

[gtrower]

The schedule is a bit easier than last year but still tough. Floor is 5 wins and ceiling is 10 I’d say. 7-8 most likely.

Putting a ceiling at 8 is laughable. We could lose to uga, Clemson, and vt (we won’t) and still be better than the rest of the teams on our schedule.

 

[redmule]

Georgia Tech was put on earth to make fools of high school math hotshots and sports writers. GT will achieve its purpose again this year.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

oh i agree. Every team between 6-11 is neck and neck, with all them teams jumping from 11 to 6 simply if they outperform what my computer expectations were by 1% on both offense and defense. Its a very, very, small gap.

Miami is the only team I expect to stay in Tier 2. Louisville is artificially high due to their offense blowing everyone out of the water, so even witha reduction down to 6 starters, they only have an estimated 8% drop off in efficiency with that number, but with Lamar gone, we know common sense will prevail and they will drop harder. Last year, they were 15% higher on Offense than the #25 team, so their offense still looks elite because of that. Them , UCF, and OU were in a league of their own last year.

Wake forest and BC are definitely see-it-to-believe it type teams, but BC has had consistently good Defense, and their offense came alive and gave them a 7 win season last year. Wake was inches away from a 9 win season. BC has a super easy OOC this year, with Umass, Temple, Purdue and a FCS team. Purdue should be a challenge, but Boston college does return the most starters from any ACC team this year, at 18.

Wake foerst takes on Tulane, Notre Dame, Rice, and a FCS school. So ND is the only written up loss. Behind Clemson's 16, they return the third most starers, and they get the 1st string quarterback back from injury last year. Its important to note that BC is a half step above Tier 3, and a bigger half step below tier 2. For Tier 3 teams to jump up, they need a 7% overpeformance from what my cpu-projection is on both sides of the ball, and a 3% to pass BC.

Tier 1-
Tier 2 (-7%, -11% for BC)
Tier 3 (-7%, -3% for BC)
Tier 4 (-5%)

Is how that shakes up to be.

The math is making my liberal arts head hurt. How about this? Of all the teams I saw play Tech last year, BC had the best tackling overall of everyone except maybe UGA. They are really tough on defense. The problem is that you just can't win on defense and special teams anymore like back in the day. Beginning sometime in the 1990s or so, offense moved to the forefront and its been that way every since. Back in the 60s and 70s, a seven point lead in the fourth quarter was better than a pond full of catfish. But everything changes over time.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The math is making my liberal arts head hurt. How about this? Of all the teams I saw play Tech last year, BC had the best tackling overall of everyone except maybe UGA. They are really tough on defense. The problem is that you just can't win on defense and special teams anymore like back in the day. Beginning sometime in the 1990s or so, offense moved to the forefront and its been that way every since. Back in the 60s and 70s, a seven point lead in the fourth quarter was better than a pond full of catfish. But everything changes over time.

Your head must really be hurting bad, since we didn't play BC last year; that was 2016....LOL

 

[Skeptic]

And that's being nice. It took a miracle to beat one of the worst FSU teams in the history of their program. It took a miracle to beat a 5-6 Georgia Tech team. It took until the last drive to come back and beat a Syracuse team who has been at the bottom of the ACC for some time. A horrible UNC team beset by injuries basically gave the game away on a horrible fumble in the last couple minutes - Miami won by 5. They lost to one of the worst Pittsburgh teams we've seen in some time and got throttled by Clemson, losing by more than any other of Clemson's 12 FBS opponents.

I particularly enjoyed that Clemson-Miami game. A Miami fan writing on this board indicated he stood in no fear of the Clemson secondary and figured their passing game would have a very good day. In the first place that secondary was better than advertised, but played second fiddle all year to a fearsome defensive line and strong set of LBs turned loose by Venables at both predictable and unpredictable times. Hard to challenge a secondary under that kind of assault. I think they are the class of the league again, but sometimes 18-year-olds remember their age at awkward moments. It has happened to us. And going in as big favorites to get back and odds-on to win it all is a different kind of pressure for Dabo to navigate through. Their season will be interesting to watch.

 

[iceeater1969]

When u are looking at the ACC in 18, whats your take on returning QB s?
Top Tier:
NCSU, Clemson, FSU if Frenchy is healthy, upper middle if its blackman

Upper Middle:
Syracuse (If healthy), Miami,

Lower Middle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Pitt, UNC, Wake forest (he started last year, before an injury)

Newbie
Wake Forest, Louisville, Duke, BC, UVA


Will S cuse have an experienced qb? I thought their coach was trying to be a very pass oriented program.
Its Eric Dungy's Senior year, and he's led the team every single year so far. He's gotten injured every year IIRC, and they did lose 2 WR, but they still return a bit of depth on both sides of the ball this year. 7 Senior Starters, including QB, 2 WR, and 2 O-lineman.

With our new defense i hope we face a lot of new qb s! (Having a defense that doesn't give the qb 7 seconds to throw a dump pass will be quite a change. ).

My review indicates we only face talented and experienced qb at uga, mia, duke, vt.
this is true for the most part, and experienced QB's can take advantadge of that. However, with the switch from a nickle to a 3-4 package, there are going to be some growing pains with the front 7 more or less having to have to learn a new position. In situations like that, you want to rely on a strong secondary, at least until some of the kinks get knocked out. Unfortunately, GT lost the entirety of its starting secondary this offseason to graduation/injuries, (and with returning snaps in the secondary being the singlehanded highest indicator of success on D in an upcoming season) I think this will be a very long season on defense again. Our front 7 should hopefully take some of that pressure off of the fresh off the boat backfield with the new scheme, but they are definitely going to struggle against expereinced QBs

As for the schedule for FBS opponents
USF- new QB
Pitt-after rotating through 3 QBs last season, one starter will be nice. Some experience here
Clemson- Bryant tore us a new one last year
BGSU- split QBs last season. both are young,
UL- New QB. Jawon Pass looked respectable in garbage time
Duke- Daniel Jones played very well against us last year. Losing Shaun Williams is a bigger loss to their Offense.
VT- Josh Jackson started hot, then went back to average. I expect the same this year
UNC- Also had a QB carosell, so its hard to pin them down. Everyone saw snaps last year though
Miami- Malik was very incosistent. One of the tops in Interceptions, but they still went 10-3. He had to carry once they lost Walton against FSU
UVA- Transfer QB from Arizona State. Haven't seen much
UGA- Jake From State Farm should have another great season. Their Defense carried them last year, and won't do the same this year. Should easily win their division, but Florida and Mizzou might make things interesting.



Your ideas would be appreciated.

Thanks for adding info - we could be a big suprise on defense.
i casually know andy mac. he is pretty pumped about his young recruits and the mlb s he is coaching.
i hope that we are going to come in waves on defense to help the young db !




I have no more insight.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Your head must really be hurting bad, since we didn't play BC last year; that was 2016....LOL

Like you said dude. The math is so bad I can't even keep the years straight. I was watching it on youtube and that one thing stood out about their team.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

And that's being nice. It took a miracle to beat one of the worst FSU teams in the history of their program. It took a miracle to beat a 5-6 Georgia Tech team. It took until the last drive to come back and beat a Syracuse team who has been at the bottom of the ACC for some time. A horrible UNC team beset by injuries basically gave the game away on a horrible fumble in the last couple minutes - Miami won by 5. They lost to one of the worst Pittsburgh teams we've seen in some time and got throttled by Clemson, losing by more than any other of Clemson's 12 FBS opponents.

That is all very true but a team with the kind of talent Miami has is to be respected. What would be really nice is a good old fashioned quarterback controversy to break out with the Hurricanes split down the middle. That would keep Mark occupied for most of the season.