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Absurdly Early 2024 Predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="link3945" data-source="post: 978852" data-attributes="member: 1004"><p>What exactly are we arguing here? We're around 100th in points per game, 93rd in SP+, 86th in FEI. All of them are in broad agreement over how good our defense was: not very. SP+ is likely to be more predictive going forward, since it attempts to adjust for opponent, situation, and pace of play. Points per game is a fine metric, but misses a lot of context. </p><p></p><p>EPA is probably an even better metric: EPA/play has us as the 90th best defense. Not bad against the pass, awful against the run. Awful on success rate, but limited explosive plays.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="link3945, post: 978852, member: 1004"] What exactly are we arguing here? We're around 100th in points per game, 93rd in SP+, 86th in FEI. All of them are in broad agreement over how good our defense was: not very. SP+ is likely to be more predictive going forward, since it attempts to adjust for opponent, situation, and pace of play. Points per game is a fine metric, but misses a lot of context. EPA is probably an even better metric: EPA/play has us as the 90th best defense. Not bad against the pass, awful against the run. Awful on success rate, but limited explosive plays. [/QUOTE]
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