A ? re: turnovers

[4shotB]

I looked up the following stats regarding turnovers (giveaways by the offense, not defensive) after a whopping two games for a few teams that we might play or benchmark against for one reason or another:

Team Off. TO
Duke 1
VT 1
Clemson 0
Syracuse 2
OSU 2
Army 2
Navy 1
Uga 2
GT 5

Questions - is this sample too small to even discuss? Are turnovers a function of coaching (or lack thereof)? A function of athleticism (or lack thereof)? A byproduct of the style of offense you run? Simply random chance and all teams will have about the same over a long enough period of time?
I know some may dismiss this out of hand because I did not include any teams with more TO's than GT. I did not do it intentionally to skew the results but the data is difficult to find this early in the season. I am more interested in the bigger questions that I have listed to gather some input on this topic.

 

[lv20gt]

http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort04.html

Here is the list of all teams sorted by turnovers lost. We actually have 6 and are tied for 120th. IMO the bigger issue is that we have 3 INTs thrown on just 36 attempts. Losing 3 fumbles while rushing it 111 times isn't that bad but throwing an INT once every 12 passes is terrible. It's also a bad indicator, although on a small sample size. We should be about 1 INT every 30 or so, as we were in both 2016, 2014, 2009, and 2008. Last year we were 1 in every 24. 2015 we were 1 in 19.

 

[tech_wreck47]

http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort04.html

Here is the list of all teams sorted by turnovers lost. We actually have 6 and are tied for 120th. IMO the bigger issue is that we have 3 INTs thrown on just 36 attempts. Losing 3 fumbles while rushing it 111 times isn't that bad but throwing an INT once every 12 passes is terrible. It's also a bad indicator, although on a small sample size. We should be about 1 INT every 30 or so, as we were in both 2016, 2014, 2009, and 2008. Last year we were 1 in every 24. 2015 we were 1 in 19.

1 of those INT’s were just wrong imo. There was Ofensive pass interference when it should have been called on the D. Even then,we’ve had to many imo.

 

[lv20gt]

1 of those INT’s were just wrong imo. There was Ofensive pass interference when it should have been called on the D. Even then,we’ve had to many imo.

I don't really agree. Not all contact is PI, and while the defender puts his hands on the WR he doesn't really push off and the reason our WR went to his knees was just his own footwork got messed up as he went for more of a full stride when he should have cut it off to turn around. Looks like he tried to correct it late with his left foot but couldn't get his right one down enough to stop his momentum. The level of contact there was by the DB happens on pretty much every contested ball by both sides. I think what was called was the obvious grab of the left arm our WR did. I think this is one of those cases where if the WR acts out a little more, throws arms out, then he might be able to get the call, but by trying to salvage the play and grabbing the WR he put himself in a situation where his contact was a lot more egregious than that of the DB, even if the db's came first. I still think it should have been a no call, as neither's contact really impeded the others ability to catch the ball, and the biggest factor was slipping more than anything.

 

[jgtengineer]

On our interest we had one bad call and one caused by a hit. So we really only have on traditional wtf interception

 

[tech_wreck47]

I don't really agree. Not all contact is PI, and while the defender puts his hands on the WR he doesn't really push off and the reason our WR went to his knees was just his own footwork got messed up as he went for more of a full stride when he should have cut it off to turn around. Looks like he tried to correct it late with his left foot but couldn't get his right one down enough to stop his momentum. The level of contact there was by the DB happens on pretty much every contested ball by both sides. I think what was called was the obvious grab of the left arm our WR did. I think this is one of those cases where if the WR acts out a little more, throws arms out, then he might be able to get the call, but by trying to salvage the play and grabbing the WR he put himself in a situation where his contact was a lot more egregious than that of the DB, even if the db's came first. I still think it should have been a no call, as neither's contact really impeded the others ability to catch the ball, and the biggest factor was slipping more than anything.

I saw it differently, he definitely had his path to the ball taken away and you can’t do that as a DB. He actually doesn’t even put his hands on the DB, the DB extended both arms though. Go to 1:25 seconds left in the 2nd quarter and watch the replay in slow motion. He’s turned to find the ball, CB cuts his path off and extends both arms, that’s not hand checking which I’m fine with if both guys are doing it. Looks to me as if the coach and even player thought he committed PI by their body language and the coach coming to talk to him right away.

 

[lv20gt]

I saw it differently, he definitely had his path to the ball taken away and you can’t do that as a DB. He actually doesn’t even put his hands on the DB, the DB extended both arms though. Go to 1:25 seconds left in the 2nd quarter and watch the replay in slow motion. He’s turned to find the ball, CB cuts his path off and extends both arms, that’s not hand checking which I’m fine with if both guys are doing it. Looks to me as if the coach and even player thought he committed PI by their body language and the coach coming to talk to him right away.

His path wasn't taken away though. The defender beat him to the spot and turned around to find the ball himself. The defender has the right to go after the ball just as much as the WR does and the contact made by the db isn't any more than what you see receivers do all the time. The most blatant interference was the grab of the arm by our WR after he slipped, although I still think it was light for a PI call. Now you could argue that the contact made him slip but it doesn't appear to be that way to me. Looks more like a no call than anything.

Also, I think the DBs reaction was assumption that he was called for a PI even though he thought it was clean rather than knowing he did something wrong. I think what sets the mood even worse is the commentator flat out calling it DPI when it happened but you could hear even him cut himself off on the replay.

 

[4shotB]

So, are turnovers random chance or bad luck? or a function of coaching? an indicator of athletic ability? Anyone have an opinion on root causes? averaging 3 per game, if that continues, is going to be a real issue no matter what other offensive stats we produce.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Of our 6 turn overs, 3 were the number that actually mattered. The early Fumble with Acorn, the Fumble by Searcy and the Int with 5 to go. The other three, a bogus call, a pitch problem late in the game with a 3rd string A back and a pass right at the half on last Saturday.

 

[tech_wreck47]

His path wasn't taken away though. The defender beat him to the spot and turned around to find the ball himself. The defender has the right to go after the ball just as much as the WR does and the contact made by the db isn't any more than what you see receivers do all the time. The most blatant interference was the grab of the arm by our WR after he slipped, although I still think it was light for a PI call. Now you could argue that the contact made him slip but it doesn't appear to be that way to me. Looks more like a no call than anything.

Also, I think the DBs reaction was assumption that he was called for a PI even though he thought it was clean rather than knowing he did something wrong. I think what sets the mood even worse is the commentator flat out calling it DPI when it happened but you could hear even him cut himself off on the replay.

Of course you both have the right to go up for the ball but that’s not what I’m talking about. The DB without a doubt (in my mind) pushed and extended his arms and Camp didn’t grab until going to the ground after the DB had his hands on him. This sequence looks pretty clear to me. Of course Camp was slipping some, but that doesn’t take away from the DB having his hands on Camp extending the arms, if he didn’t extend his arms I would be fine.

 

[4shotB]

Just curious if anyone has an opinion on the root causes of turnovers? Are they preventable? or would all teams average approximately the same if the sample sizes (games played) were much larger? Bueller? Bueller? anyone?

 

[g0lftime]

Still shots sure look like PI could be called. Those were AAC refs according to the ajc.

 

[alagold]

http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort04.html

Here is the list of all teams sorted by turnovers lost. We actually have 6 and are tied for 120th. IMO the bigger issue is that we have 3 INTs thrown on just 36 attempts. Losing 3 fumbles while rushing it 111 times isn't that bad but throwing an INT once every 12 passes is terrible. It's also a bad indicator, although on a small sample size. We should be about 1 INT every 30 or so, as we were in both 2016, 2014, 2009, and 2008. Last year we were 1 in every 24. 2015 we were 1 in 19.

It is just flat hard to pass out of the TO.(somewhat balanced by the fact it is VERY hard to stop the running attack) .but--We were NEXT to LAST in '17 in US in ratio of passes to sacks.We have been under 50 % on passing for most yrs , going down to 37% last yr . We threw 2 ints out of 18? vs usf which is terrible.
We are just having too many TOs to win.Just like last yr with Tenn an Aback fumbled just when we were close to closing the door.(just luck? or is the "system") hmmm

 

[Jmonty71]

I looked up the following stats regarding turnovers (giveaways by the offense, not defensive) after a whopping two games for a few teams that we might play or benchmark against for one reason or another:

Team Off. TO
Duke 1
VT 1
Clemson 0
Syracuse 2
OSU 2
Army 2
Navy 1
Uga 2
GT 5

Questions - is this sample too small to even discuss? Are turnovers a function of coaching (or lack thereof)? A function of athleticism (or lack thereof)? A byproduct of the style of offense you run? Simply random chance and all teams will have about the same over a long enough period of time?
I know some may dismiss this out of hand because I did not include any teams with more TO's than GT. I did not do it intentionally to skew the results but the data is difficult to find this early in the season. I am more interested in the bigger questions that I have listed to gather some input on this topic.

Turnovers... That's a great question. Some turnovers happen from sloppy play... (see GT). Some turnovers come from bone jarring hits. Some turnovers are from mistakes and bad throws (also see GT) Some turnovers come from great reads. And....yes, some turnovers come from the pure and simple athleticism. I'm not sure there is one simple answer to this question.

When CTR was running the show, we hoped for the sloppy play and/or bad decisions. Very rarely was a turnover from some great play. They happened, but not often.

The best way to generate turnovers is simple. Pressure... The more pressure, you add, the higher chance for the mistake. It also can lead to ball handling issues, which allows big hits to generate them.

 

[4shotB]

The best way to generate turnovers is simple. Pressure... The more pressure, you add, the higher chance for the mistake. It also can lead to ball handling issues, which allows big hits to generate them.

JMonty, just curious...do you or have you coached? I like you answer but what about the converse...how do you coach to reduce turnovers from your own team? As a coach, do you view them as preventable? or just as random chance?

 

[Jmonty71]

JMonty, just curious...do you or have you coached? I like you answer but what about the converse...how do you coach to reduce turnovers from your own team? As a coach, do you view them as preventable? or just as random chance?

I played and coached some. Neither high level. I grew up on the defensive side of football. However; for the O, most of our problem is just bad choices and poor mechanics, while throwing. With the triple option, turnovers are more common, just because every one HAS to be on the same page. But, I think we run the TO just as well, as anyone. I would like to see some high percentage pass plays, to boost TM's confidence. That may help with those more difficult 30+yard passes, down the road. There is no really easy answer .

 

[TampaBuzz]

The best way to generate turnovers is simple. Pressure... The more pressure, you add, the higher chance for the mistake. It also can lead to ball handling issues, which allows big hits to generate them.

This is so true....I think about that last fumble against USF. I am operating off of memory....haven't watched the game replay after stumbling out of the stadium in a daze mumbling, "we did it again...we did it again...etc." Good thing my 6-year old was there to guide me back to the car. On that play, the Defensive End/Tackle pressured the QB, who made a low pitch (I think it was around the knees) and our AB was still trying to get the ball fully secured when he was stripped. Pressure at the QB and at the AB by USF produced that fumble.

 

[senoiajacket]

This is so true....I think about that last fumble against USF. I am operating off of memory....haven't watched the game replay after stumbling out of the stadium in a daze mumbling, "we did it again...we did it again...etc." Good thing my 6-year old was there to guide me back to the car. On that play, the Defensive End/Tackle pressured the QB, who made a low pitch (I think it was around the knees) and our AB was still trying to get the ball fully secured when he was stripped. Pressure at the QB and at the AB by USF produced that fumble.

I dont think you are remembering the play correctly. You were probably too traumatized. I just watched it again on Youtube. There was no pressure on the QB. The pitch was fine. Our guy just didnt secure the ball and their guy poked it out. You can either look at it as a good play/great play by their guy, or our guy not doing what he was supposed to do. To the original question, this seems to me like it could be put in the catagory of a player failing to execute what he was coached. I have to beleive over 4 years, he has heard how to secure the ball hundreds of times. He just lost concentration at a critical time and it cost us.