A-Back Rushing Distribution

[stylee]

I've done a little bit of number crunching on A-Back rush attempts in the CPJ era.
The results aren't shocking or anything, but it was interesting to look at.

In 2013, Godhigh accounted for 44% of the rush attempts from the position. This was the highest percentage of A-Back carries since 2008, when Roddy Jones got 53%. In 2013, Days was second in carries and finished with 15%, the lowest total percentage for the second-leading A-Back carrier. Only Cox in 2008 comes close, accounting for only 17% of the carries in that year.

Taking out the 2008 and 2013 seasons, our leading carrier will average 34% of the rushes, with second place getting 28%.

We had 180 carries from the A-Back position in 2013, 3rd most since 2008 (with the highest being 2009 [191] and 2011 [185]).


What does this mean?

In most years, the top A-back is getting a third of the total A-back carries, and the second place guy is not too far behind that. In 2013, Godhigh got a much higher proportion of carries - owing to the fact that he was by far the best threat at the A-Back position. Days' second place finish is likely due more to the fact that his blocking ability kept him on the field more than the remaining guys, rather than his being a better runner (as well as all of Hill's missed games).

That makes 2013 a lot like 2008, when Roddy was far and away the best runner at A-Back.

In 2014, Godhigh is gone. I'd expect the numbers to fall back to around where they were in 09-12. In fact, I think the A-Backs now are much closer than the A-Backs in those years, and so the leading carrier may even have less of the pie.

For now, I'll make a wild guess:

Deon Hill: 30%
Perkins: 25%
Everyone else: 45%


Data from ESPN. Had to make a few guesses. I think Lucas Cox was back as a backup BB in 2010, so I didn't include his 20+ carries from that year. I know he was doing both in 09. Everything rounded to nearest whole - I don't have a Tech degree, so someone smarter can me can do better with the numbers.
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2013:
Godhigh – 79
Andrews – 12
Hill – 13
Bostic – 16
Perkins – 13
Days – 27
Zenon – 14
Willis- 2
McClellan – 2
McNearny - 2
Total: 180
Godhigh: 44%
Days: 15%

2012:
Godhigh: 54
Bostic: 34
Zenon: 31
Days: 23
Hill: 6
Paige: 3
Total: 151
Godhigh: 36%
Bostic: 23%

2011:
Smith: 61
Peebles: 47
Jones: 57
Zenon: 15
Godhigh: 2
J. Thomas?: 2
Hill: 1
Total: 185
Smith: 33%
Jones: 31%

2010:
Smith: 53
Jones: 52
Peebles: 46
Bostic: 13
Wright: 6
Paige: 1
Total: 171
Smith: 31%
Jones: 30%

2009:
Allen: 64
Jones: 53
Wright: 33
Peebles: 31
Malone: 1
Cox: 9
Total: 191
Allen: 34%
Jones: 28%

2008:
Jones: 81
Cox: 26
Smith: 13
Peebles: 14
Q. Kelly: 14
Wright: 4
Total: 152
Jones: 53%
Cox: 17%

 

[presjacket]

I do believe that you left off Orwin Smith's 79 carries in 2012.
If I recall correctly, Quincy Kelly was the backup B-back in 2008.
And it is Peeples, not Peebles.

I had previously put together the following information about our featured A-back each year, so I thought I would post it here.

2013
Featured A-back Robbie Godhigh
Rushing
79 attempts (11.1% of team attempts)
744 yards (19.1% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
23 catches (25.0% of team catches)
471 yards (27.8% of team receiving yards)

2012
Featured A-back Orwin Smith
Rushing
79 attempts (9.8% of team attempts)
682 yards (15.7% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
18 catches (17.6% of team catches)
288 yards (15.8% of team receiving yards)

2011
Featured A-back Orwin Smith
Rushing
61 attempts (8.5% of team attempts)
615 yards (15.0% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
13 catches (15.9% of team catches)
306 yards (16.5% of team receiving yards)

2010
Featured A-back Orwin Smith
Rushing
53 attempts (7.0% of team attempts)
516 yards (12.3% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
12 catches (18.8% of team catches)
195 yards (17.9% of team receiving yards)

2009
Featured A-back Anthony Allen
Rushing
64 attempts (8.1% of team attempts)
618 yards (14.9% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
5 catches (6.4% of team catches)
78 yards (6.3% of team receiving yards)

2008
Featured A-back Roddy Jones
Rushing
81 attempts (12.7% of team attempts)
690 yards (19.4% of team rushing yards)
Receiving
8 catches (10.8% of team catches)
155 yards (12.0% of team receiving yards)

 

[stylee]

How did I whiff on Orwin in 2012???? Thanks for the save

 

[AE 87]

Nice analysis guys! I think the increased use of the rocket toss, lacking the option option may have been a big part of the increase in RG's rushing attempts in 2013.

We also had 7 guys with more than 10 carries from the A-Back position last year. We need some guys to step up and claim the starting jobs, imo.

 

[Rodney Kent]

It seems like a normal distribution if you consider the most dependable back gets the most carries. Since you have the information for the team carries, could you include the total carries in percentages of the total B Back carries per year with the A Back carries per year. I am wondering if this percentage would give the defenses an edge in guessing the defense to use.

 

[ATL1]

Bostic's touches dropped CONSIDERABLY .

 

[txsting]

Godhigh's rushing and receiving yardage in 2013 are both the top marks for all A-backs in the CPJ era.

Knew he was good, but didn't realize he was the best.

 

[stylee]

@Eric , is there any way to edit my post to correct my errors?

 

[Eric]

@Eric , is there any way to edit my post to correct my errors?

There should be a edit button in the under your post..if not let me know.

 

[AE 87]

There should be a edit button in the under your post..if not let me know.

I think there used to be, but I don't see it noe for my old posts.

EDIT: It's there before another post in thread.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Great numbers. I'm surprised that AA didn't do better.

It also shows that Godhigh's replacements have big shoes to fill. {:emphasis on big}

I think CPJ uses a lot of ABs to run the plays in. Godhigh obviously wasn't one of those but in previous years CPJ alternated more. I think with a more option oriented QB this year, either Bylerly or JT, there will be more use of the AB and more diverse use too. Vad got locked into plays and it was Godhigh since he was money.

 

[stylee]

I think there used to be, but I don't see it noe for my old posts.

EDIT: It's there before another post in thread.

Yeah, what he said.

No biggie. Just feel dumb for leaving Orwin out of last year's analysis.

How about this for crazy: Zenon had more carries than Godhigh in 2011.

 

[presjacket]

It seems like a normal distribution if you consider the most dependable back gets the most carries. Since you have the information for the team carries, could you include the total carries in percentages of the total B Back carries per year with the A Back carries per year. I am wondering if this percentage would give the defenses an edge in guessing the defense to use.

Is this the info you are wanting to see?

PERCENTAGE OF RUSHING ATTEMPTS
SeasonB-Back QB A-Back Others Total
2013 39.97% 32.68% 25.25% 2.10% 100.00%
2012 36.51% 33.79% 28.47% 1.24% 100.00%
2011 31.20% 40.95% 25.49% 2.37% 100.00%
2010 37.98% 38.38% 22.71% 0.93% 100.00%
2009 34.60% 37.50% 24.75% 3.16% 100.00%
2008 33.59% 42.34% 21.56% 2.50% 100.00%
Average 35.64% 37.61% 24.70% 2.05% 100.00%

 

[Rodney Kent]

presjacket: Thanks for the information. It appeared to me that we were loading up on the BBack and quarterback to much. This may be the reason we were getting stuffed in the middle too much. I know the philosophy is to make the defense bunch up in the middle so the A Backs will have a more open field, but it can backfire it the defenses have been following the statistics, and play their defenses accordingly.

It is fairly safe for a defense to go with the odds. And when the offense does not pass efficiently, plus producing fumbles, it obviously gives the defense an edge in the guessing game.

 

[forensicbuzz]

It appeared to me that we were loading up on the BBack and quarterback to[o] much. This may be the reason we were getting stuffed in the middle too much. I know the philosophy is to make the defense bunch up in the middle so the A Backs will have a more open field, but it can backfire it the defenses have been following the statistics, and play their defenses accordingly.

Maybe the reason we're running BB and QB so much is this is what the defense is giving us. Remember, the AB is the 3rd choice in progression, so if we choose 1 or 2, we'll never get to 3. I think 3rd read in any progression will almost always have less touches.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Maybe the reason we're running BB and QB so much is this is what the defense is giving us. Remember, the AB is the 3rd choice in progression, so if we choose 1 or 2, we'll never get to 3. I think 3rd read in any progression will almost always have less touches.

We don't run triple option every play. Infact, it's way under 50% of the time.

 

[forensicbuzz]

We don't run triple option every play. Infact, it's way under 50% of the time.

yes, I agree, but only one play, the rocket toss, is a direct give to the AB. Many more plays run to through the BB and the QB. Unless it's the rocket toss, the AB is always the last option. I used the 3-o as an example.

 

[Rodney Kent]

forensicbuzz: The objective of the defense is to make the offense run the plays you would like for them to run and when you want them to run them. If you know the odds and trends of an offense, such as Tech's trends, then you stuff the middle until they get frustrated or have long yardage after the third down, then you play the A Back sweeps and options along with a slightly accelerated watch for the long pass.

Smart coaches play the odds. Of course, they also watch for things that might give the play away, such as some have suggested in the VT game.

It is not all predicated on the offense, the defense also has its tricks when it knows the odds of the offense from past history. The old adage is true, if you know the history of anything, you can better foretell the future.

 

[forensicbuzz]

forensicbuzz: The objective of the defense is to make the offense run the plays you would like for them to run and when you want them to run them. If you know the odds and trends of an offense, such as Tech's trends, then you stuff the middle until they get frustrated or have long yardage after the third down, then you play the A Back sweeps and options along with a slightly accelerated watch for the long pass.

Smart coaches play the odds. Of course, they also watch for things that might give the play away, such as some have suggested in the VT game.

It is not all predicated on the offense, the defense also has its tricks when it knows the odds of the offense from past history. The old adage is true, if you know the history of anything, you can better foretell the future.

And the objective of our offense is to identify what the defense is taking away and exploit, with numbers or misdirection, what is left. Any defense that can take away all of the options (be it 2-O or 3-O or 4-O), will stiffle any offense. Unless the defense is able to totally overwhelm the offense physically, there will be situations the offense can exploit. That's the whole purpose of our "gimmicky" offense: take advantage of the opportunities the defense gives us.

As for percentages, that's either a what the defense is giving us or the QB is making the wrong read or the coach is calling straight plays. I think 2013 is the only year the CPJ has called an inordinate amount of straight plays. I know there have been bad reads, but I don't know how much that would really affect those percentages.

PS: Please be careful how you word your posts. I feel confident you didn't intend to come across as condescending.

 

[forensicbuzz]

If you know the odds and trends of an offense, such as Tech's trends, then you stuff the middle until they get frustrated or have long yardage after the third down, then you play the A Back sweeps and options along with a slightly accelerated watch for the long pass.

If it were that simple, we wouldn't be Top 5 rushing every year that CPJ has been here.