71 Years of GT Football - A Comparison

[GTNavyNuke]

What a difference from last year when CPJ needed to win to be able to stay. Now basically he’s at GT till he wants to leave.

That’s what a good year will do. And this last year was the best one (barely) since our last National Championship when measured by J Howell Power Ranking. (*For background on Power Ranking and SOS see last year post of https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/ )

Comparing all coaches since Dodd, CPJ is now essentially tied with O’Leary now. Dodd will remain the best, but that was a different time. While CPJ has a slightly higher average Power Ranking (66%) than O’Leary (64%), O’Leary had a slightly win % at 64% (53-30) while CPJ is at 62% (58-35). And the reason CPJ’s Power Ranking is higher is because the average Strength of Schedule of teams CPJ has faced has been 61% versus 58% for O’Leary.

Last year I talked about the odds of getting a better coach than CPJ. I think the question is moot now. (Here was last year’s post the odds of getting a better coach: https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-odds-of-getting-a-better-coach-than-cpj.2524/)

Now as far as anyone getting confident about next year, continued high performance at GT has not happened since Dodd. Looking at the history for the years we have had a power ranking of 75% or better since Dodd:
CPJ 2009 79.0% followed by 51.3%
O’Leary 1998 76.5% followed by 70.4%
Ross 1990 88.1% followed by 67.2%
Curry 1985 76.9% followed by 55.4%
Carson 1970 79.9% followed by 62.8%.

That’s an average drop of 18.7% drop the last five times GT has been above 75% Power Ranking. The smallest drop was by O’Leary with only the 6.1% drop.

Hopefully this time will be different.

 

[orientalnc]

This year we had a "team" like we have not had for a long time. I just finished reading "The Boys In The Boat" by Daniel James Brown. Read it. You will have a fine experience and also understand why the concept of team is so important.

 

[Fatmike91]

Dodd's second group of six years (year 7 though 12) was his best.

/

 

[DC Bee]

What a difference from last year when CPJ needed to win to be able to stay. Now basically he’s at GT till he wants to leave. That’s what a good year will do. Last year I talked about the odds of getting a better coach than CPJ. I think the question is moot now.

The 2014 season clearly demonstrated how the offense should be run to succeed at the highest level. Aside from the obvious blocking, aggressiveness and timing is crucial. CPJ always knew and would say "we just didn't execute," which grated on many after 6 seasons. Many of us didn't know exactly what was the problem. Then came 2014, the Lucky #7, and we all saw and now we know so the matter is settled.

Now as far as anyone getting confident about next year, continued high performance at GT has not happened since Dodd. Looking at the history for the years we have had a power ranking of 75% or better since Dodd.....That’s an average drop of 18.7% drop the last five times GT has been above 75% Power Ranking. The smallest drop was by O’Leary with only the 6.1% drop.

Hopefully this time will be different.

I think it will for the very reason 2014 was successful. JT5 pushes the offense into warp speed. It's what he does. And we have him for 2 more years. The defense should improve on paper, I hope CPJ and CTR can get the defense to play with the fundamentals & intensity that we saw in the 2nd half of the season. The bar is set pretty darn high and the schedule is one of the toughest in the land, but I'd like to see a minimum of 9 wins next year.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

A couple of observations:

1. I found it interesting that you commented that Dodd's success was in a different time than O'Leary's and Johnson's. I agree and I'd add that even O'Leary's time was very different than now. It is much more difficult to bring in and keep borderline academic students to GT now than in the 90's. A little thing called APR happened.

Ironically, along with ensuring a quality academic opportunity for SA's, it was supposed to help level the playing field between the factories and everybody else. It fails miserably on both counts and actually widens the divide in talent dispersal. Academic schools (can't believe I just typed that) with no place to "hide" SA's can no longer keep non-academically interested students in developmental studies till their eligibility expires.

2. JT is, indeed, the magic elixir that makes this engine perform at peak levels. The machine is a good design, but requires high quality parts to work well. The good news is that we can make it work with parts that other schools looked out the window on. Even though it is true that JT was wanted by a handful of factory schools, it is certain they did not want him at quarterback. That is a very important distinction that should not be lost or glossed over.

 

[Skeptic]

The 2014 season clearly demonstrated how the offense should be run to succeed at the highest level. Aside from the obvious blocking, aggressiveness and timing is crucial. CPJ always knew and would say "we just didn't execute," which grated on many after 6 seasons. Many of us didn't know exactly what was the problem. Then came 2014, the Lucky #7, and we all saw and now we know so the matter is settled.




I think it will for the very reason 2014 was successful. JT5 pushes the offense into warp speed. It's what he does. And we have him for 2 more years. The defense should improve on paper, I hope CPJ and CTR can get the defense to play with the fundamentals & intensity that we saw in the 2nd half of the season. The bar is set pretty darn high and the schedule is one of the toughest in the land, but I'd like to see a minimum of 9 wins next year.

No question, or few questions anyway, that the offense will get better. And not just from Thomas. But even in the Orange Bowl blowout of MSU there were numerous missed blocks and the plays still resulted in big gains. A couple of them were Thomas's TD runs.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Good information, gives one perspective.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Dodd was no doubt one of the greatest coaches that ever lived, but he had a ton of advantages that we will never have again. There is more parity today than ever before.

 

[iceeater1969]

What a difference from last year when CPJ needed to win to be able to stay. Now basically he’s at GT till he wants to leave.

That’s what a good year will do. And this last year was the best one (barely) since our last National Championship when measured by J Howell Power Ranking. (*For background on Power Ranking and SOS see last year post of https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/ )

Comparing all coaches since Dodd, CPJ is now essentially tied with O’Leary now. Dodd will remain the best, but that was a different time. While CPJ has a slightly higher average Power Ranking (66%) than O’Leary (64%), O’Leary had a slightly win % at 64% (53-30) while CPJ is at 62% (58-35). And the reason CPJ’s Power Ranking is higher is because the average Strength of Schedule of teams CPJ has faced has been 61% versus 58% for O’Leary.

Last year I talked about the odds of getting a better coach than CPJ. I think the question is moot now. (Here was last year’s post the odds of getting a better coach: https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-odds-of-getting-a-better-coach-than-cpj.2524/)

Now as far as anyone getting confident about next year, continued high performance at GT has not happened since Dodd. Looking at the history for the years we have had a power ranking of 75% or better since Dodd:
CPJ 2009 79.0% followed by 51.3%
O’Leary 1998 76.5% followed by 70.4%
Ross 1990 88.1% followed by 67.2%
Curry 1985 76.9% followed by 55.4%
Carson 1970 79.9% followed by 62.8%.

That’s an average drop of 18.7% drop the last five times GT has been above 75% Power Ranking. The smallest drop was by O’Leary with only the 6.1% drop.

Hopefully this time will be different.

Remember us discussing this last spring. It was very clear that no coaching change decision was warranted till end of year. Either more of the same or worse and decision would be obvious. I realized how far I am in the minority of we should expect and demand success (9 win) and how large the percentage of base is that embraces - that's all we can do - see Lewis, Rodgers, fuel her, - look at the base.

I argued that even if we have sucess this year we would not win over the " can't expect to win more than 7-8 games crowd " unless we kept winning into 2015 with a new cast on offense. I felt we should wait till mid season to decide on "is this the system and staff " ? - if we do great in 15 (freshman AB are fine in offense and we don't need 5th year AB who can perfectly block) would cement even guys like atomic.

Well we did way beyond expectations (ol and jt) and we now know the system is what we need on offense.
Sure we will have some problems this year but what will the signs be that coach is cementing us at this higher level and working get us to the next level ( example - midseason coach got involved in change of defensive strategy, recent one-- coach heavy into and more visible in recruiting)?
We can't expect to always have JT, to play major competition when they have new DC msu,fsu,uga.
Yours and and other moderators thoughts in a proper thread would be interesting.

One thing I would like to see early is some package plays for the younger ab that give them plays to just run or go out for long pass verses " become perfect blockers then you get to run" - this is a long term help in recruiting quality backs .
How bout an even more agressive blitz package that shows off young players skills and seeking to get defensive scores - this is a long term help in recruiting

 

[GTRX7]

I argued that even if we have sucess this year we would not win over the " can't expect to win more than 7-8 games crowd " unless we kept winning into 2015 with a new cast on offense.

Is there anybody who believes that we "can't expect to win more than 7-8 games?" I have never heard anybody ever say that. Like me, I suspect there are a number of fans who actually think D. Brain was correct that we cannot expect to win 10 games every year (even though he should never have publicly said that). That said, I think we all, even the most pessimistic of us, agree that we can expect 7-8 wins a year, with certain years being 10-11, and maybe certain others being 5-6 (and even the possibility of a crazy, everything- comes-together year like 1990). It is just unfair in my mind to expect 9-10 every year. It just doesn't make sense mathematically. If you look at all the programs with the same or better history/resources/money as Tech and expect them to all win 9-10 every year, it just can't happen.

I love CPJ, think he is a great fit, and am hopeful that now that he has his system and his recruiting running like a machine, we can experience a consistent stretch of greatness. We will see. There were certainly some growing pains to get to this point.

 

[Skeptic]

Is there anybody who believes that we "can't expect to win more than 7-8 games?" I have never heard anybody ever say that. Like me, I suspect there are a number of fans who actually think D. Brain was correct that we cannot expect to win 10 games every year (even though he should never have publicly said that). That said, I think we all, even the most pessimistic of us, agree that we can expect 7-8 wins a year, with certain years being 10-11, and maybe certain others being 5-6 (and even the possibility of a crazy, everything- comes-together year like 1990). It is just unfair in my mind to expect 9-10 every year. It just doesn't make sense mathematically. If you look at all the programs with the same or better history/resources/money as Tech and expect them to all win 9-10 every year, it just can't happen.

I love CPJ, think he is a great fit, and am hopeful that now that he has his system and his recruiting running like a machine, we can experience a consistent stretch of greatness. We will see. There were certainly some growing pains to get to this point.

It might be improbably to expect 9-10 wins every year, but not unfair. No reason it is not doable, but I'm not going to set what's left of my hair afire if we don't. Seems to me the finish of this season -- Clemson, though wounded at the time, Georgia and MSU, closing to within two of FSU, even if they turned out to be the featherweights of the final four -- added a great deal of confidence to those directly within the program. It might take a break here and there but I like to think the ball is in our court, so to speak, to show we can't. GT may have to do it with very limited numbers of blue chippers on offense -- were I they I would look elsewhere, too, if my goal was NFL -- but no reason we can't get them on defense.

 

[GTRX7]

GT may have to do it with very limited numbers of blue chippers on offense -- were I they I would look elsewhere, too, if my goal was NFL -- but no reason we can't get them on defense.

Given our academic restrictions, I have to believe we are at the biggest disadvantage for D lineman of all positions on the field. And that is a pretty important one if you want to have great defenses.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Given our academic restrictions, I have to believe we are at the biggest disadvantage for D lineman of all positions on the field.

Completely agree.
This one position has the smallest number of good recruits who can handle college work of any other position in football.

 

[alaguy]

It is flat out hard to sustain college fball success at a school like GT--we struggle to get AND keep good players esp these days-that stat showing a 18% drop in rating after a great season is sobering--
we had lots of good things happen last yr that may not happen again--leading the list was few injuries ,ESPECIALLY that JT was not really hurt ,except for dook game,er-which we lost
If he is hurt Byerly is good but not JT
we didn't get our biggest weakness ,the DL, ravaged by injuries either (as opposed to vt who were hurting a bunch)
few TOs mostly due to exp'd ball-handlers
also an AMAZING performance by my surprise of the yr- soph Freddie Burden--who not only didn't cause fumbles but also blocked like crazy
also we didn't have the strongest schedule either which upgrades a bunch next yr
if we win 9 reg season this coming yr,I still think we can call it a sustaining yr

 

[GTNavyNuke]

It might be improbably to expect 9-10 wins every year, but not unfair. .........

How many wins depends on the Strength of Schedule to a large degree. If we had the Fluke BC/Wake combo in ACC Atlantic versus our FSU/Clemson, that's an extra 1-1.5 wins right there.

That's why I go off of Power Ranking much more than wins. Plus Power Ranking takes into account the home/away factor.

I agree with what everyone has said about why we SHOULD be better next year. But I bet if you went to every one of those 5 past times since Dodd that we had a great team, there were plenty of good reasons why the team would be better or very good the next year. Same now.

I'm still basking in this last season and will for the next 6 months ........ next I'll post something about Heisman, Alexander and Dodd and how they compare to CPJ.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

....... if we win 9 reg season this coming yr,I still think we can call it a sustaining yr

If we win 9 in the regular season with our schedule, our Power Ranking will probably be close to 75% which is very good.

 

[Skeptic]

Given our academic restrictions, I have to believe we are at the biggest disadvantage for D lineman of all positions on the field. And that is a pretty important one if you want to have great defenses.

Interesting, because one of my oldest friends, himself a GT graduate, told me not far back that he doubted Tech's ability to recruit what he said was needed: mean, overtly aggressive, hard young men who wanted literally to hurt people. I thought it a bit overwrought though I concede he has a certain point.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

also we didn't have the strongest schedule either

It was rated the fifth strongest schedule in the nation among power five teams.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It was rated the fifth strongest schedule in the nation among power five teams.

Our SoS shot up big time when we made the ACCCG and the OB. Our original 12 game slate was not as tough as our upcoming schedule.

If we duplicate last year's post season, we'll likely have the top SoS. We'll have to play FSU twice or Clemson twice depending on who wins the Atlantic. Then we'd have another top ten opponent in the OB or playoff.

 

[alaguy]

It was rated the fifth strongest schedule in the nation among power five teams.

what does "reg seson" mean to you?--to me its the 12 REGULAR season games