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70 Years of GT Football – Comparing Teams Under Different Coaches

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by GTNavyNuke, May 7, 2014.

  1. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    In the post on Strength of Schedule http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/ , I discussed the J Howell Power Rankings. There are other ways teams and coaches are compared, most notably the winning percentage. But I don’t like winning percentage that well since some coaches get easier schedules (cupcakes and killers) than others. To evaluate coaches, you can also look at National Ranking, which is a better metric since it is based on who you play and how you win or lose. The National Ranking I use here is the one from J Howell so it is related to their system of Power Ranking. Here is a graph comparing GT coaches on the basis of the average national ranking of the team, the winning % and Power Ranking.

    [​IMG]

    Dodd will be the best no matter how the statistics are tortured. Out teams under him were phenomenal. Next is O’Leary.

    Then the following three coaches need some more thought – Gailey, Johnson and Ross. Finally there are five more coaches whose teams didn’t do as well.

    On the chart, I sorted them by average National Finish. You can see that Johnson has a higher winning % than Gailey. But Gailey’s teams were ranked higher. That’s because Gailey had a tougher Strength of Schedule. Here’s the data for coaches again sorted chronologically:

    [​IMG]
    But there is more to it than averages. I also like to look at how a coach was trending through his time at Tech.
    [​IMG]
    O’Leary and Ross were on an upswing when the left with both going on to what they hoped were more lucrative positions. Ross took over a poor performing program and turned it into a national champion for a brief shining moment (fortune smiled on us that season). Gailey was kind of flat to down his last year and CPJ as we have seen was trending downward then had an uptick last year.

    So, if I rank the program performance under coaches here’s my order:
    · Dodd in a class by himself.
    · Then O’Leary.
    · Then out of the next three think they are all about the same with Gailey overcoming the tough schedule, Ross for winning a NC and improving from a dismal start and then CPJ being fairly solid for the level of football since Dodd left.
    · After that, the next five are moot.

    Any thoughts on these historical rankings?

    Next I’ll look to the future since the CPJ story isn’t over. Things can change. CPJ has been here as long as anyone since Dodd going into 2014. So he is on a historically short leash. And he totally owns the team’s performance. Let's discuss CPJ's future in the next post ......
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2014
    cyptomcat and CuseJacket like this.
  2. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    I like the first chart as it is, but could you also post the same chart in chronological order rather than average power rating?
     
  3. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Like this?
    [​IMG]
     
    AE 87 likes this.
  4. dressedcheeseside

    dressedcheeseside Helluva Engineer

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    Ross and O'leary did not leave on an upswing. Both left after years that were worse than the previous year.

    Ross: 11-0-1 ('90), 8-5 ('91)
    O'Leary: 9-3 (2000), 7-5 (2001)

    CPJ is a work in progress. His final place in history (and on the chart) is still yet to be determined.
     
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  5. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Depends on how you define upswing. I was looking at the 4 year average not each year. It is easy to have a ****ty year, so I like an average. Both Ross and O'Leary did a lot better in their last few years, including last year, than what they started with. (Somehow the coaches blocks for years coached don't match the years .... but the printed years are right. Damn, they did in another format.)

    As for CPJ, it is what it is. In this post I'm only judging him based on his first 6 years. Only O'Leary and Curry were here longer at 7 years (other than Dodd of course.) Six
    years is more than enough time for me to judge him. The next post gets into what may happen .....
     
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  6. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    So, over the last 3 coaches, our average power ratings have been the best since Dodd. I expect that after next year gets rid of the 2010 data, we'll see a significant increase for CPJ's 4yr average.

    If our D steps up, we should be cool.
     
  7. dressedcheeseside

    dressedcheeseside Helluva Engineer

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    Except then it will then become a 5 year average.
     
  8. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    LOL. We can make statistics show whatever we want. The hard part is being unbiased and trying to get at the "truth". But the truth is an elusive thing.

    But to your point, here is the 3 year average power ranking which gets rid of the 2010 season in CPJ's latest average. Only a modest bump up. It doesn't change my conclusion that we only had a minor improvement last year or that Gailey and Ross went out with a substantially better program than CPJ for the last three years.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Most recently, who is the GT coach to consistently beat UGA, VT, FSU and Clemson?
     
  10. Buzz1965

    Buzz1965 Jolly Good Fellow

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    No question Bobby Dodd was a special one and you just don't have many come along like him.
     
  11. Ramblinwreck1991

    Ramblinwreck1991 Jolly Good Fellow

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    Dodd the best.. But Oleary really did a great job as well... I loved watching curry play but was just not the coach that he was a player
     
  12. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    OK, Dodd would be the answer if you limit to football. But I asked this before the Clemson baseball game. I was fishing for Danny Hall ....... :love::rolleyes: The trick was I also had FSU and VT in there and I don't think Dodd played FSU and VT .....

    But back to football, this entire exercise made me appreciate CPJ more than I did after we lost to UGAg and the bowl game. Dodd was the master
     
  13. Whiskey_Clear

    Whiskey_Clear Banned

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    Dodd was a treasure. That being said, he ruled the single platoon football era. Even as great as he was (and I think he was a better overall coach than even the Bear), he would have struggled with the shift to two platoon football. He almost always competed with a talent deficit against the factories even in single platoon football. But that talent gap became wider for GT in the two platoon era. It's harder to compete with the factories with the numbers needed for two platoon football. Would have been interesting to see how he would have done if he had taken that Texas job. Pretty certain he would have been very successful in two platoon ball there. They have never struggled to bring in lots of top flight talent.
     
  14. Mack

    Mack Helluva Engineer

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    Upswing is questionable.Remember Ross was one year away from a NC and of course the Bell Book issue did split the team.He still had Jones and ton of athletes left that would be red shirt seniors and GOL left lsome very good players for Chan.Now we are just dreaming but Ross had the players to get back to higher heights after a 8-5 season and GOL could have done teh same thing.THE cup was not empty when the guys left.The won loss was not that great but we were on the track to do well.
     
  15. Mack

    Mack Helluva Engineer

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    Yep there was sadly ..only one Dodd..............we still miss him today .
     
  16. Ramblinwreck1991

    Ramblinwreck1991 Jolly Good Fellow

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    I didn't really realize how bad we were under Curry
     
  17. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    In '84 and '85, we were pretty good. But outside of that, not really. The sad thing is that the three times (Fulcher, Rodgers, Curry) we have tried GT players as our HC, it hasn't worked out too well. I'd like nothing better than a GT player to really succeed as GT HC.
     
  18. Buzz1965

    Buzz1965 Jolly Good Fellow

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    Bobby Dodd is more than a treasurer... He is an icon that and had the charisma that made everyone respect him
     
  19. Mack

    Mack Helluva Engineer

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    Or my friend if the stats are not as good.......the excuses will flow .
     
  20. Mack

    Mack Helluva Engineer

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    You are spot on Nuke...if one goes back and looks at the talent Rodgers had and he has a ton.......Eddie Lee,Hill,Kent Hill,Don B,etc its clear coaching must have had something to do with our won loss record.Curry to me is good guy but was woefully inept at the start of his career at Tech and Fulcher was ready to thorwo in the towel after only year so yeah.......maybe a Goose or Ken W but we need to get the best not just the best TECH players turned coach.
     

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