5dimes futures: Odds to win NCAA championship

[iggymcfly]

As far as sports betting goes, futures aren't exactly an efficient market, but it still gives at least some idea what the oddsmakers think about the championship race.

Alabama: +155
Oregon: +230
TCU: +425
Baylor: +800
Florida State: +900
Ohio State: +1200
Missouri: +3300
Arizona: +10000
Georgia Tech: +10000
Mississippi State: +20000

Takeaways:
-Passing Michigan State and Wisconsin should not be an issue as neither is even listed in the playoff odds. Note also that Mississippi State has twice as bad odds as us with no games left, and they have a significantly better chance if we lose, so in the special case where we beat Florida State, we would be a huge favorite to get in over the Bulldogs since all of our chances are included in that scenario while Mississippi State's chances are reduced when we win.

-Missouri has significantly better odds than us. That means that they're probably a very legitimate threat to pass us if they beat Alabama. The head-to-head works in our favor, but with our extremely negligible chance of passing Alabama, we should definitely be rooting for the Tide on Saturday.

 

[proace360]

Does the fact that Baylor and TCU are ahead of Florida State mean that if Baylor wins they pass TCU and take the 4th spot or that they think we'll knock FSU out?

 

[iggymcfly]

Pretty sure it's a combination of a very good chance of Georgia Tech knocking out Florida State, and the fact that Florida State would likely be a significant underdog in their playoff games if they did beat us.

 

[Blumpkin Souffle]

Not sure why they would have Mizzou with better odds than is, I thought the committee was going to factor common opponents into their rankings. If so our win against Georgia looks a whole lot better than their 34-0 shutout.