2024 Season

[FredJacket]

I do bash RPI... & I stand by that. It is flawed & some tweaks would improve it. Namely more emphasis on a team's actual record & significantly lower weighting to the home/road factors.

However... by this time of the year... it is not complete nonsense. The better teams who managed to do ok against tougher opponents are ranked higher than those who aren't that good... generally.

The problem is how it appears (nobody really knows) it is used by the committee when it gets down to figuring out the last 5-10 teams who "deserve" to be in the 64 team field over those few who don't deserve it. Ga Tech appears to be one such [bubble] team. I believe they deserve it. AND I believe IF they are left out, the only thing the committee can point to is RPI... which, in GTs case, is deflated because of the flawed math. [this assumes Ga Tech will go at least 2-3 over final 5 games]

ETA... I don't keep track of the committee membership. But I seem to recall a Podcaster saying the ACC "finally" has a rep on the committee this year. Not sure how long the ACC hasn't been represented. The problem there is the rep is from FSU. FSU & the ACC are literally suing each other right now. Can't make this stuff up.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

We agree 90%. Pretty good since if two people agree 100%, one of them is unnecessary.

I agree that RPI has flaws that should be tweaked. The Warren Nolan has ELO which makes some tweaks. I don't "bash" it since it is numeric and not the eyeball test which would be SEC heavy in my conspiracy mind.

Figuring out the last 10% of the teams to make an NCAAT in any sport will always be hard given the number of teams and limited number of games and development of the teams during the season. I honestly can't say how much we "deserve" it since I have followed very little college baseball outside of GT and UVa. I think if we end up after the ACCT >=500, we "deserve" it. If we are 1 or 2 below, then I think RPI can be used to keep us out if other teams have a stronger resume based on RPI but we'll make it at -1 but definitely not -3. We have strong points in our resume and weak points like every bubble team. I will say again that RPI is a known methodology and we scheduled ourselves into the RPI position we are in. The 3 series we played against typically >200 RPI teams (and 4 games against 290 killed us as games count the same regardless of when they are played).

If I were on the committee, I'd look for reasons to put ACC teams in and take SEC teams out. That's the way it should be!

 

[FredJacket]

My predicted final ACC standings/seeds for the ACCT. Check back Sat for my 'grade'
(final weekend predicted results in parenthesis)

1 - UNC 22-8 (win 2 at Duke)
2 - Clemson 19-11 (win 2 v BC)
3 - UVA 18-12 (sweep VT)
4 - Wake 17-13 (win 2 at NCST)
5 - NCST 16-13 (win 1 v WF)
6 - FSU 16-13 (win 1 v GT)
7 - Ga Tech 16-14 (win 2 at FSU)
8 - Duke 16-14 (win 1 v UNC)
9 - Louisville 15-15 (win 2 v ND)
10 - Va Tech 14-16 (lose 3 at UVA)
11 - Miami 11-19 (win 1 v Pitt)
12 - ND 10-20 (win 1 at Louisville)
----------
13 - Pitt 10-20 (win 2 at Miami)
14 - BC 9-21 (win 1 at Clemson)

This would place us in pool with Clemson & Miami in the ACCT.

NCST gets tiebreak over FSU with better winning percentage in division
Ga Tech gets tiebreak over Duke with head to head winning %
ND gets tiebreak over Pitt with head to head winning %

 

[GTNavyNuke]

My predicted final ACC standings/seeds for the ACCT. Check back Sat for my 'grade'
(final weekend predicted results in parenthesis)

1 - UNC 22-8 (win 2 at Duke)
2 - Clemson 19-11 (win 2 v BC)
3 - UVA 18-12 (sweep VT)
4 - Wake 17-13 (win 2 at NCST)
5 - NCST 16-13 (win 1 v WF)
6 - FSU 16-13 (win 1 v GT)
7 - Ga Tech 16-14 (win 2 at FSU)
8 - Duke 16-14 (win 1 v UNC)
9 - Louisville 15-15 (win 2 v ND)
10 - Va Tech 14-16 (lose 3 at UVA)
11 - Miami 11-19 (win 1 v Pitt)
12 - ND 10-20 (win 1 at Louisville)
----------
13 - Pitt 10-20 (win 2 at Miami)
14 - BC 9-21 (win 1 at Clemson)

This would place us in pool with Clemson & Miami in the ACCT.

NCST gets tiebreak over FSU with better winning percentage in division
Ga Tech gets tiebreak over Duke with head to head winning %
ND gets tiebreak over Pitt with head to head winning %

How did you do last year@Fredstrodamus?

When I go back and look at my season prediction (14-16 ACC and 19-6 OOC). We did worse in OOC where we are 16-6. May do between 14-16 ACC to 17-13.


{See below for earlier post. Note I missed the BC series and I would have guessed we'd go 2-1 in that one. Should have realized we had 10 ACC series, poor quality control.}

Busse is #57 starting pitcher by D1 and Cam Hill is #123. No "top" GT relief pitchers by D1.

Anyway, here's my guess for our record this year. 12-15 ACC regular season but winning season at 31-21. That's because I guess we'll go 19-6 OOC. I've read the D1 reviews and other ACC teams have improved with the portal too with the exception of Miami. (I bumped up our wins versus NC State and UNC with their injuries.) So we'll see. We have to prove it on the field; ad nauseum we'll go as far as our pitching takes us.

Date	Number Games	OOC	ACC	College	D1 2024 Preseason Ranking	2023 RPI	2024 Expected Wins	Ranking better / worse than 2023 RPI?
Friday, February 16, 2024​	3​	3​		Radford		298​	2.9​
Tuesday, February 20, 2024​	1​	1​		@ Ga Southern		104​	0.6​
Friday, February 23, 2024​	3​	3​		Cornell		281​	2.9​
Tuesday, February 27, 2024​	1​	1​		Ga State		100​	0.8​
Friday, March 1, 2024​	3​	3​		uGag		41​	1.5​
Tuesday, March 5, 2024​	1​	1​		Northeastern	23​	34​	0.45​	+
Friday, March 8, 2024​	4​	4​		Youngstown State		255​	3.9​
Tuesday, March 12, 2024​	1​	1​		@Mercer		121​	0.5​
Friday, March 15, 2024​	3​		3​	NC State	13​	28​	1.5​	+
Tuesday, March 19, 2024​	1​	1​		@Ga State		100​	0.5​
Friday, March 22, 2024​	3​		3​	@UNC	15​	33​	1.4​	+
Thursday, March 28, 2024​	1​	1​		@Kennesaw St		164​	0.8​
Tuesday, April 2, 2024​	1​	1​		Presbyterian		200​	0.85​
Friday, April 5, 2024​	3​		3​	@Pitt		79​	1.5​
Tuesday, April 9, 2024​	1​	1​		@ Ga Southern		104​	0.5​
Friday, April 12, 2024​	3​		3​	VT		48​	1.5​
Tuesday, April 16, 2024​	1​	1​		@Auburn	26-40	29​	0.35​	~
Friday, April 19, 2024​	3​		3​	@UVa	14​	11​	1.05​	~
Tuesday, April 23, 2024​	1​	1​		Kennesaw St		164​	0.8​
Friday, April 26, 2024​	3​		3​	Miami	26-40	14​	1.4​	-
Friday, May 3, 2024​	3​		3​	@Clempy	10​	8​	1.2​	~
Tuesday, May 7, 2024​	1​	1​		Auburn	26-40	29​	0.45​	~
Friday, May 10, 2024​	3​		3​	Duke	12​	20​	1.4​	~
Tuesday, May 14, 2024​	1​	1​		Mercer		121​	0.75​
Friday, May 17, 2024​	3​		3​	@FSU	26-40	60​	1.2​	+
Total Games	52​	25​	27​				31​	21​	Wins- Losses Total
							12​	15​	Wins ACC

 

[gtbeak]

My predicted final ACC standings/seeds for the ACCT. Check back Sat for my 'grade'
(final weekend predicted results in parenthesis)

I'll play (I love these kind of exercises!!!)

1 - UNC 21-9 (win 1 at Duke)
2 - Clemson 20-10 (sweep BC)
3 - Wake 18-12 (sweep at NCST)
4 - FSU 17-12 (win 2 v GT)
5 - Duke 17-13 (win 2 v UNC)
6 - UVA 17-13 (win 2 v VT)
7 - NCST 15-14 (swept v WF)
8 - Ga Tech 15-15 (win 1 at FSU)
9 - Va Tech 15-15 (win 1 at UVA)
10 - Louisville 15-15 (win 2 v ND)
11 - Miami 12-18 (win 2 v Pitt)
12 - ND 10-20 (win 1 at Louisville)
----------
13 - Pitt 9-21 (win 1 at Miami)
14 - BC 8-22 (swept at Clemson)

This would place us in pool with UNC & ND in the ACCT.

Duke gets tiebreak over Virginia with better head to head winning %
*** Georgia Tech gets tiebreak over Va Tech and Louisville due to better head to head winning %
*** Va Tech gets tiebreak over Louisville due to better head to head winning %

*** Note that I could have this 3-way tie breaker wrong. 1st is head-to-head winning %, which would go to us, but since all 3 teams didn't play each other the head-to-head may get bypassed.

 

[gtbeak]

How did you do last year@Fredstrodamus?

When I go back and look at my season prediction (14-16 ACC and 19-6 OOC). We did worse in OOC where we are 16-6. May do between 14-16 ACC to 17-13.


{See below for earlier post. Note I missed the BC series and I would have guessed we'd go 2-1 in that one. Should have realized we had 10 ACC series, poor quality control.}

We've already beaten my conference prediction, which was 13-17. I didn't do an OOC prediction.

 

[gtbeak]

D1 Baseball has their latest bracket prediction out (note, this is just for fun, everyone knows their is still a good bit of ball to be played). We have graduated away from the "Last Four In" line. However, they still have us as a 3-seed. They also have us in Starkville, similar to another site's projection that was posted earlier today. They have us matched with Louisiana as the #2 seed (I think this is the school that used to be called U La-La, as in Louisiana-Lafayette).

Interestingly, and the main reason I post this, they have Virginia Tech, Louisville, Ole Miss, LSU, and Florida all out, meaning only 9 SEC schools and only 8 ACC schools.

My prediction, if things stay as they are right now (fat chance, right?), we would get sent to Athens and the SEC will get 10 schools into the tourney.

 

[FredJacket]

D1 Baseball has their latest bracket prediction out (note, this is just for fun, everyone knows their is still a good bit of ball to be played). We have graduated away from the "Last Four In" line. However, they still have us as a 3-seed. They also have us in Starkville, similar to another site's projection that was posted earlier today. They have us matched with Louisiana as the #2 seed (I think this is the school that used to be called U La-La, as in Louisiana-Lafayette).

Interestingly, and the main reason I post this, they have Virginia Tech, Louisville, Ole Miss, LSU, and Florida all out, meaning only 9 SEC schools and only 8 ACC schools.

My prediction, if things stay as they are right now (fat chance, right?), we would get sent to Athens and the SEC will get 10 schools into the tourney.

Assuming 8 ACC teams are in based on regular season performance.... buuuuut....
The 9-seed or higher wins ACCT getting an auto bid... do they replace the 8th team or are they added as 9th ACC participant. Pretty hypothetical as other conference outcomes could play into it. Bottom line... & not news... Ga Tech can not afford a bunch of stolen bids via conference champion auto bids.

 

[gtbeak]

Assuming 8 ACC teams are in based on regular season performance.... buuuuut....
The 9-seed or higher wins ACCT getting an auto bid... do they replace the 8th team or are they added as 9th ACC participant. Pretty hypothetical as other conference outcomes could play into it. Bottom line... & not news... Ga Tech can not afford a bunch of stolen bids via conference champion auto bids.

Very good point, Fred, about stolen bids. I have been planning to spend some time Sunday putting together a list of teams who we need to root for in the conference tourneys next week. We definitely want to see as many "at-large birth" teams win their conference tourneys as possible in order to limit the stolen bids.

 

[senoiajacket]

Assuming 8 ACC teams are in based on regular season performance.... buuuuut....
The 9-seed or higher wins ACCT getting an auto bid... do they replace the 8th team or are they added as 9th ACC participant. Pretty hypothetical as other conference outcomes could play into it. Bottom line... & not news... Ga Tech can not afford a bunch of stolen bids via conference champion auto bids.

Just win all you can, jackets!

 

[bensaysitathome]

Very good point, Fred, about stolen bids. I have been planning to spend some time Sunday putting together a list of teams who we need to root for in the conference tourneys next week. We definitely want to see as many "at-large birth" teams win their conference tourneys as possible in order to limit the stolen bids.

I'd appreciate this list. I generally keep up with the ACC and SEC.

 

[gtbeak]

I'd appreciate this list. I generally keep up with the ACC and SEC.

Assuming we don't sweep or get swept in Tallahassee I'll try to work on it Sunday. If a sweep happens in either direction it would likely be a moot point.

 

[78pike]

I'd appreciate this list. I generally keep up with the ACC and SEC.

I use D1baseball.com to monitor all the scores each weekend. They break down their scores by Top 25 and then by each individual conference across all of baseball. That way you can see if there are any upsets in some of those smaller conferences and if there is a chance of bids getting stolen as they say.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

8 - Ga Tech 15-15 (win 1 at FSU)
9 - Va Tech 15-15 (win 1 at UVA)
10 - Louisville 15-15 (win 2 v ND)

Duke gets tiebreak over Virginia with better head to head winning %
*** Georgia Tech gets tiebreak over Va Tech and Louisville due to better head to head winning %
*** Va Tech gets tiebreak over Louisville due to better head to head winning %

*** Note that I could have this 3-way tie breaker wrong. 1st is head-to-head winning %, which would go to us, but since all 3 teams didn't play each other the head-to-head may get bypassed.

gtbeak, I believe your last sentence is correct. I believe all 3 teams would need to have played each other for head to head to matter. After that, I believe it is common opponents between the 3 teams. In the case you note above, by my accounting those would be UNC, Virginia, Miami, and BC. Records against those 4 teams:

GT: 4-8
VT: 5-4 with UVA still to play
LOU: 6-6

So BC is the series that keeps on giving since VT and Louisville were both 3-0 against them.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I use D1baseball.com to monitor all the scores each weekend. They break down their scores by Top 25 and then by each individual conference across all of baseball. That way you can see if there are any upsets in some of those smaller conferences and if there is a chance of bids getting stolen as they say.

Agreed, D1baseball is the best resource out there.

Mostly what I mean is I'm not sure what a stolen bid in the colonial would actually be. Who's presumed to win? If they don't, does the frontrunner get a bid anyway, or was that a conference that only gets their champ in either way?

Whereas we know if LSU goes on a run to win the SEC tourney, or Miami in the ACC, then that's a stolen bid since they're on the wrong side of the bubble. Vandy probably isn't - sure they're out of left field, but likely had a spot anyway so no real change in the overall tournament.

That's a long way of saying that if someone knows which teams winning would probably mean that conference gets an extra bid, that would be helpful, because I don't know.

 

[FredJacket]

Agreed, D1baseball is the best resource out there.

Mostly what I mean is I'm not sure what a stolen bid in the colonial would actually be. Who's presumed to win? If they don't, does the frontrunner get a bid anyway, or was that a conference that only gets their champ in either way?

Whereas we know if LSU goes on a run to win the SEC tourney, or Miami in the ACC, then that's a stolen bid since they're on the wrong side of the bubble. Vandy probably isn't - sure they're out of left field, but likely had a spot anyway so no real change in the overall tournament.

That's a long way of saying that if someone knows which teams winning would probably mean that conference gets an extra bid, that would be helpful, because I don't know.

You're correct that some conferences will only get one bid regardless. Those conferences have no team ranked high enough for an at-large. There are 30 conferences (I think) and all get a bid (I think).

There are quite a few with 1 or 2 teams set up for an at-large if they don't win their conference & should another team win next weekend, that will hurt bubble teams. One example is the AAC. ECU will get in at #12 in RPI. No other team in that conference is top 100 in RPI. There are enough other situations like that.

I'm looking forward to @gtbeak giving us the full list.

 

[senoiajacket]

Agreed, D1baseball is the best resource out there.

Mostly what I mean is I'm not sure what a stolen bid in the colonial would actually be. Who's presumed to win? If they don't, does the frontrunner get a bid anyway, or was that a conference that only gets their champ in either way?

Whereas we know if LSU goes on a run to win the SEC tourney, or Miami in the ACC, then that's a stolen bid since they're on the wrong side of the bubble. Vandy probably isn't - sure they're out of left field, but likely had a spot anyway so no real change in the overall tournament.

That's a long way of saying that if someone knows which teams winning would probably mean that conference gets an extra bid, that would be helpful, because I don't know.

I listened to a bit of the D1 podcast (most recent, weekend 14) and they discussed exactly what you’re talking about for some of the lesser known conferences. I only listened to the first 19 minutes. I don’t think they went through all the conferences.

 

[FredJacket]

Finished regular season at .500 in the ACC and #46 RPI. I've felt all along that .500 in ACC play was good enough to get in the tournament. Still do. Would be good (for many reasons) to get 1-2 more wins next week; but I think we're good. There is another team that is .500 in conference play not concerned at all about making the tournament.

Here's a fun game. Compare Ga Tech and Wake Forest

Ga Tech #46 RPI
Wake Forest #10 RPI

Overall Records:
Ga Tech 31-21
Wake 36-19

Conference Records:
Ga Tech 15-15
Wake 15-15

RPI Quad Records
Q1: GT 9-12 / WF 7-13
Q2: GT 5-3 / WF 9-4
Q3: GT 6-5 / WF 7-2
Q4: GT 11-1 / WF 13-0

Home: GT 22-9 / WF 25-7
Road: GT 9-11 / WF 10-11

I am not suggesting Ga Tech and Wake resumes are the same. Wake's is better; but not THAT much better.

 

[gtbeak]

Finished regular season at .500 in the ACC and #46 RPI. I've felt all along that .500 in ACC play was good enough to get in the tournament. Still do. Would be good (for many reasons) to get 1-2 more wins next week; but I think we're good. There is another team that is .500 in conference play not concerned at all about making the tournament.

Here's a fun game. Compare Ga Tech and Wake Forest

Ga Tech #46 RPI
Wake Forest #10 RPI

Overall Records:
Ga Tech 31-21
Wake 36-19

Conference Records:
Ga Tech 15-15
Wake 15-15

RPI Quad Records
Q1: GT 9-12 / WF 7-13
Q2: GT 5-3 / WF 9-4
Q3: GT 6-5 / WF 7-2
Q4: GT 11-1 / WF 13-0

Home: GT 22-9 / WF 25-7
Road: GT 9-11 / WF 10-11

I am not suggesting Ga Tech and Wake resumes are the same. Wake's is better; but not THAT much better.

Main difference (and I hate to continue beating this drum) is that in their 4 non-conference weekends they played two "tournaments" that did include Akron and Binghamton, but also included Illinois, and then they also played Dayton and Western Carolina. A total of only 4 games against schools 200 or below, and only 6 against schools 150 or below. We played UGa (advantage to us) but otherwise we played the 3 schools below 200 (Cornell, Radford, Youngstown St.) A total of 10 games against schools 200 or below, and also the mid-week Presbyterian game.

Please, Danny or whomever is coach next year, please consider carefully how you put together the non-conference weekend schedule.

 

[78pike]

For further comparison here is a list of Wake's out of conference games:
Fordham
Illinois
Akron
UNC Greensboro (L)
Dayton (3)
NC A&T
Binghamton (2)
Elon
Georgetown
Coastal (L)
High Point
Liberty
UNC Greensboro
Coastal
UNCW (L)
Elon (L)
App State
High Point
Western Carolina (3)
NC A&T

No SEC teams on that list. Heck only one Power 5 team on the list and Illinois is not a powerhouse. Granted a couple games against Coastal but this OOC schedule isn't a murder's row.

In conference we played the same teams except they had Notre Dame and Louisville while we had Pitt and Miami. So we faced all tournament teams other than BC while they faced the two teams that didn't make the tournament. Granted they swept BC but that just means that three of our wins were against better teams. I have to admit I'm scratching my head to understand why we are a bubble team and they aren't?