We should consider a metric called Ease of Schedule as opposed to Strength of Schedule. From Dave Barton of CFB Matrix:
“Ease of schedule, ease of schedule. Well, for so long, strength of schedule always drove me nuts, right? Because strength of schedule, number one, strength of schedule, there's no correlation to how good or tough your schedule is and the quality of the team, right?
I mean, no matter what 12 teams you are playing on your college football schedule, your team is only as good as the team. The schedule has nothing to do with it. And I don't know why we have these contests over who has the toughest schedule overall, because to me, it never had any meaning.
So I'm always trying to derive meaning from the data. And so the next step that I took is I calculate, and I've been doing this for over a decade, is I calculate ease of schedule. And the ease of schedule is the 12 teams a team is playing relative to their talent, right?
So let me give you an example, okay? Right there in the backyard, you got Georgia, Georgia State. They each play the same 12 teams on the road and at home.
Their strength of schedule is identical, right? You know, it has to be identical, because they play the same road and home schedule as one another. So that is an equal strength of schedule.
But the ease of schedule, now we're taking a look at that strength of the schedule, and then our denominator is the talent of the team. So the ease of schedule of Georgia with the same 12 teams as Georgia State, well, you and I both know, Georgia is going to have a easier schedule.”
The link to the show is below and the conversation begins at the 29:40 mark.
