2024 non-GT games thread

Oldgoldandwhite

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,834
slugboy said:
It wouldn’t surprise me if they win their first game, or even made the championship. I don’t think they’ll win, but I also don’t think they’ll make any mistakes
Click to expand...
I don’t think there is a team, that you can point to, and say they’re going to the CG. Weird year. Usually there are 3-4 teams that are a cut above the rest.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,289
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
RamblinRed said:
I doubt it.
Clemson doesn't have much on its bones. The only team it has beaten that has won more than 5 games this season is Pitt. It got to play mostly the worst teams in the ACC.
Also, they have multiple shared opponents and ND beat every one by a larger score and beat L'ville where Clemson lost by double digits. I think the L'ville results would keep Clemson behind ND.

I did a deep dive on the one loss teams yesterday and a quicker look at 2 loss teams. My rankings looking at that - and really looking at their schedule and results and trying to ignore names and conference logos leads me to a fairly different outcome than what the committee is currently doing.
1. OR (undefeated power conference gets #1 overall)
2. OSU (only loss is to #1 by 1 point on road. 2 wins over teams with 10 wins, no FCS opponent)
3. ND (has a wtf loss, but otherwise has alot of beatdowns and wins over 6 teams with 7+ wins including A&M on road, no FCS opponent)
4. SMU (sneaky good record, 5 wins over teams with at least 7 wins, only loss is to BYU and that is with a different QB, 8-0 with Jennings - ACC and SMU should be playing that up)
5. PSU (Only loss being to a 10-1 team and a win over 8 win ILL)
6. UGA (no bad losses and some very good wins - could talk me into putting them higher - sometimes looks like the best team in the country, other times not even Top 25)
7. Miami (loss is to a 7-win GT, solid wins over Duke and L'ville, but otherwise a little light)
8. Az St (wins over teams with 7, 8, and 9 wins respectively)
9. BYU (similar to Az ST, Slots here due to loss to Az St, win over SMU - though that was pre-Jennings)
10. TX (way overranked due to name and conference. Has no wins over a P4 team with more than 6 wins, no wins over teams with a winning conference record, 6 wins over bottom 7 SEC teams)
11. IND (Similar to TX, but even worse, only 3 wins over teams with winning records - 6 win Neb, Wash, and MI)
12. TN (good win over AL, but not much else on the schedule - no other wins over teams with more than 6 wins, loss to ARK)
13. Boise (good loss to OR, solid win against Wash St and UNLV, could argue for them to be ahead of TN)


Texas ended up with a golden ticket from the SEC this year. Their 6 SEC wins come over teams with a combined 13-31 conference record.
In this new age of superconferences they are less conferences and more federations due to their size. SEC may be the best overall conference, but it has plenty of mediocre to weak teams so if you get the right schedule you actually have a relatively easy path. This applies to all the conferences - Clemson had the same in the ACC, basically lost to the only good conference team it played. AZ St had a much more difficult schedule in the B12 than Iowa St or Col who mostly got to play the weaker teams in the conference. Indiana and to a lesser extent PSU in the B1G.

You can't just say they played an SEC schedule, or they played a B1G schedule. There is no such thing anymore since you are basically only going to play half your league. The schedules vary widely.
Click to expand...
Excellent work!
Season isn't over... Clemson still plays USCe. A win there suddenly gives Clemson cred with the committee. It's a narrow path but 3 ACC teams in the field is in play. Need ND to lose [at] USCw (not too too crazy) &/or Indiana to lose to Purdue (that's in crazy land).

The egg the SEC laid this past weekend is pretty epic.

Miami better be prepared going up to Syracuse.
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
5,901
EVen if ND loses I would be shocked if Clemson moved in front of them.
Clemson's resume is as soft as sharmin. They do not have a win over a team with more than 5 wins on the season.
They arguably have the worst resume of any 2 loss team in the country. Beating SCe would help that a ton but I still doubt they would pass a 2-loss ND.
They would pass a 2-loss IND. They would also pass a 3 loss TN.
 
Lil G

Lil G

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
730
RamblinRed said:
2 teams that out to be a little upset with the CFP rankings
Duke and Syracuse.
They are the only P4 teams with 3 losses who are not ranked.
Click to expand...
Duke having one ranked loss (against a GT team tied for fourth in ACC), and then losses against currently #6 Miami and #9 SMU,
Not even in top 25 is INSANE.
Meanwhile SEC teams are losing BAD left and right to dogsh$t and still fighting to be in the CFP.

They made the Bias obvious with the FSU snub
But Bama at 13 is just a blatant middle finger to everyone “sorry we need the money”
 
Last edited:
orientalnc

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,028
Location
Oriental, NC
Lil G said:
Duke having one ranked loss (against a GT team tied for fourth in ACC), and then losses against currently #6 Miami and #9 SMU,
Not even in top 25 is INSANE.
Meanwhile SEC teams are losing BAD left and right to dogsh$t and still fighting to be in the CFP.

They made the Bias obvious with the FSU snub
But Bama at 13 is just a blatant middle finger to everyone “sorry we need the money”
Click to expand...
The problem for Duke is their woefully weak schedule. And how they fared. UNC is their only win against a team with a positive record. Actually, their best game is a loss to to SMU in OT. Otherwise, it's trash.

Syracuse is in a similar situation. Their best game happened when they beat us by three back in September.

Maybe they should be pissed, but who do you see in the top 25 that you absolutely know Duke or Cuse would beat? No one that I see would be an underdog to either.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,024
Location
North Shore, Chicago
orientalnc said:
The problem for Duke is their woefully weak schedule. And how they fared. UNC is their only win against a team with a positive record. Actually, their best game is a loss to to SMU in OT. Otherwise, it's trash.

Syracuse is in a similar situation. Their best game happened when they beat us by three back in September.

Maybe they should be pissed, but who do you see in the top 25 that you absolutely know Duke or Cuse would beat? No one that I see would be an underdog to either.
Click to expand...
There goes that bias...I think both of those teams could be many of the teams currently in the Top25. As you said yourself, Duke lost to SMU in OT and they're a Top10 team. Alabama is hot garbage. a&m is hot garbage. South Carolina. Those are just the SEC teams that are more than beatable. I"m not going to look at the Top25 to add more teams, but Texas has only played 1 team, and they lost to them, so it's not like Duke and Syracuse are not in good company with their schedule.
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,028
Location
Oriental, NC
forensicbuzz said:
There goes that bias...I think both of those teams could be many of the teams currently in the Top25. As you said yourself, Duke lost to SMU in OT and they're a Top10 team. Alabama is hot garbage. a&m is hot garbage. South Carolina. Those are just the SEC teams that are more than beatable. I"m not going to look at the Top25 to add more teams, but Texas has only played 1 team, and they lost to them, so it's not like Duke and Syracuse are not in good company with their schedule.
Click to expand...
You make good points. There's SEC bias in the top 25. But I don't doubt that they are a stronger conference than the ACC. If Duke were playing SC this weekend they would be an underdog. Maybe by more than ten points.
 
4shotB

4shotB

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
5,116
orientalnc said:
You make good points. There's SEC bias in the top 25. But I don't doubt that they are a stronger conference than the ACC. If Duke were playing SC this weekend they would be an underdog. Maybe by more than ten points.
Click to expand...
Quite frankly, I am not sure that Clemson, one of our top 3 teams, will beat USCe this year. The 4 rivalry games will shed a lot of light on our conference and CBK has said so as well. Sadly, I think FSU has been going through the motions for a long time and UF seeems to be getting better. So that game is probably lost before kickoff.
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,028
Location
Oriental, NC
4shotB said:
Quite frankly, I am not sure that Clemson, one of our top 3 teams, will beat USCe this year. The 4 rivalry games will shed a lot of light on our conference and CBK has said so as well. Sadly, I think FSU has been going through the motions for a long time and UF seeems to be getting better. So that game is probably lost before kickoff.
Click to expand...
Agree. We need for Louisville and Clemson to win and hope our guys acquit themselves well Friday night.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,024
Location
North Shore, Chicago
orientalnc said:
You make good points. There's SEC bias in the top 25. But I don't doubt that they are a stronger conference than the ACC. If Duke were playing SC this weekend they would be an underdog. Maybe by more than ten points.
Click to expand...
But the point is why? They shouldn't be an underdog. It's bias. Duke could easily trounce South Carolina. It could go the other way too. Both teams have flaws. I think Syracuse lives and dies with how McCord performs.
 
Thwg777

Thwg777

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
813
I saw this on social media. This guy makes a good point. We need to let these bums (ND) loose. It’s really dragging down the ACC.

IMG_5747.jpeg
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,028
Location
Oriental, NC
forensicbuzz said:
But the point is why? They shouldn't be an underdog. It's bias. Duke could easily trounce South Carolina. It could go the other way too. Both teams have flaws. I think Syracuse lives and dies with how McCord performs.
Click to expand...

I don't doubt there is an SEC bias when setting the odds, but Vegas is trying to balance the betting. They are not necessarily saying team A will win by a certain number of points, but they believe the betting public, in aggregate, thinks they will. They do a decent job of setting the odds at pretty close to how the games will turn out. They have a lot of experience with that. Remember, Clemson is only a 2-point favorite over SC this weekend.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,024
Location
North Shore, Chicago
orientalnc said:
I don't doubt there is an SEC bias when setting the odds, but Vegas is trying to balance the betting. They are not necessarily saying team A will win by a certain number of points, but they believe the betting public, in aggregate, thinks they will. They do a decent job of setting the odds at pretty close to how the games will turn out. They have a lot of experience with that. Remember, Clemson is only a 2-point favorite over SC this weekend.
Click to expand...
You've proven my point. The line isn't about which team is better, it's about getting the action even on both sides of the bet. That shows the public perception bias because SC isn't better than any of those 3 teams (and actually may be worse on most days). But, because the public is biased towards SC (due to the constant media barrage promulgating the message that the ACC is weak and other conferences are strong), Vegas has to make the line what it is to get the right balance. I'd take Clemson laying the points and I'd take Duke straight up. I could lose, but I think 8 of 10 times I'd win (just my gut feeling). I've watched every single South Carolina game this year.
 
Top