2024 non-GT games thread

[orientalnc]

No.The five highest ranked champions get automatic bids.

 

[stinger78]

No.The five highest ranked champions get automatic bids.

Yes. The teams at risk there are Clemson, Boise St, and Indiana. Clem plays USCe, Indiana plays Purdue. If Clem wins, it moves up at least to Boise’s spot, maybe Indiana’s (assuming all others win this week). ASU might move past Indiana or Boise.

Indiana would make sense, leaving 3 B1G, 3 ACC, 3 SEC, 1 B12, Indy, and G5 each. Perfect distribution based on current rankings.

 

[slugboy]

Here is the AP Poll (CFP ranking comes out tomorrow)

NCAA College Football Rankings: AP Top 25 Football Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 college football poll, a tradition since 1936. Keep up to date and view the latest ranking updates each week.

apnews.com

Indiana plays Purdue, so Clemson needs to win and have UGA and Tennessee lose, and even then it's not happening. SMU and Miami have a shot to both get in, but the cards have to fall in the right way.

The ACC does have a chance to make noise during rivalry week.

Lots of G5 possibilities, but probably Boise State. Big 12 is down to one slot (for now). Alabama is still in the top 15

RK	TEAM	REC	PTS	TREND
1	Oregon(61)	11-0	1525	-
2	Ohio State	10-1	1463	-
3	Texas	10-1	1395	-
4	Penn State	10-1	1301	-
5	Notre Dame	10-1	1278	1
6	Georgia	9-2	1242	2
7	Tennessee	9-2	1110	3
8	Miami	10-1	1096	3
9	SMU	10-1	1001	4
10	Indiana	10-1	998	5
11	Boise State	10-1	984	1
12	Clemson	9-2	789	5
13	Alabama	8-3	739	6
14	Arizona State	9-2	727	7
15	Ole Miss	8-3	661	6
16	South Carolina	8-3	639	3
17	Iowa State	9-2	498	5
18	Tulane	9-2	446	2
19	BYU	9-2	445	5
20	Texas A&M	8-3	399	5
21	UNLV	9-2	231	2
22	Illinois	8-3	188	2
23	Colorado	8-3	161	7
24	Missouri	8-3	142	NR
25	Army	9-1	133	7

 

[RamblinRed]

Pat Forde's Forty Yard Dash, talking about the CFP.
Basically uses the March Madness bubble as his template.
Says that through all the chaos the CFP has largely cleared with 13 teams for 12 spots and 1 potential bid stealer - Clemson is his bubble team and TX A&M the potential bid stealer.
1 G5 bid
1 B12 Bid
ND
1-3 ACC Bids
3-4 SEC bids
4 B1G bids

Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

www.si.com

IMO,
From the B1G - OR, OSU and PSU are locks at this point.
IN has to beat Purdue to become a lock.
ND is probably in win or lose, but losing to USC would tempt fate a little.
SEC will get a least 3 bids, possibly 4. TX is the only lock imo. UGA needs to win one of their last 2 games and they are in. TN has to beat Vandy to be a lock. (If they lose and Clemson wins then Clemson should move ahead of them).
B12 is a 1 bid league - whoever wins their championship game.
There will be one G5 bid - likely one of Boise, UNLV, Tulane or Army. That all depends upon how the next 2 weeks play out.
A&M is the potential bid stealer. They are out unless they beat TX and UGA back to back. But if they do that then someone else gets knocked out.
Clemson is interesting. They don't control their destiny but they are still alive. If Miami loses to Syracuse then they would play in the ACC CG and have a shot at getting the automatic bid. If Miami wins and SMU were to lose to both Cal and Miami and Clemson beats SCe then could Clemson move ahead of SMU - pretty likely. If Clemson beats SCe and either TN, ND or especially IN loses then could they jump one of those 2.

Still some funky scenarios out there.
If Clemson loses to SCe then ND, TN and IN all likely become locks.

 

[slugboy]

Pat Forde's Forty Yard Dash, talking about the CFP.
Basically uses the March Madness bubble as his template.
Says that through all the chaos the CFP has largely cleared with 13 teams for 12 spots and 1 potential bid stealer - Clemson is his bubble team and TX A&M the potential bid stealer.
1 G5 bid
1 B12 Bid
ND
1-3 ACC Bids
3-4 SEC bids
4 B1G bids

Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

www.si.com

IMO,
From the B1G - OR, OSU and PSU are locks at this point.
IN has to beat Purdue to become a lock.
ND is probably in win or lose, but losing to USC would tempt fate a little.
SEC will get a least 3 bids, possibly 4. TX is the only lock imo. UGA needs to win one of their last 2 games and they are in. TN has to beat Vandy to be a lock. (If they lose and Clemson wins then Clemson should move ahead of them).
B12 is a 1 bid league - whoever wins their championship game.
There will be one G5 bid - likely one of Boise, UNLV, Tulane or Army. That all depends upon how the next 2 weeks play out.
A&M is the potential bid stealer. They are out unless they beat TX and UGA back to back. But if they do that then someone else gets knocked out.
Clemson is interesting. They don't control their destiny but they are still alive. If Miami loses to Syracuse then they would play in the ACC CG and have a shot at getting the automatic bid. If Miami wins and SMU were to lose to both Cal and Miami and Clemson beats SCe then could Clemson move ahead of SMU - pretty likely. If Clemson beats SCe and either TN, ND or especially IN loses then could they jump one of those 2.

Still some funky scenarios out there.
If Clemson loses to SCe then ND, TN and IN all likely become locks.

This edges towards conspiracy theory territory, but I think SEC refs will be biased against Vandy and Auburn and to some degree Texas A&M. I wonder if Sankey has made it clear who is supposed to win?

I believe we have an SEC crew this year; we won’t get the benefit of the doubt in Athens

 

[orientalnc]

Pat Forde's Forty Yard Dash, talking about the CFP.
Basically uses the March Madness bubble as his template.
Says that through all the chaos the CFP has largely cleared with 13 teams for 12 spots and 1 potential bid stealer - Clemson is his bubble team and TX A&M the potential bid stealer.
1 G5 bid
1 B12 Bid
ND
1-3 ACC Bids
3-4 SEC bids
4 B1G bids

Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

www.si.com

IMO,
From the B1G - OR, OSU and PSU are locks at this point.
IN has to beat Purdue to become a lock.
ND is probably in win or lose, but losing to USC would tempt fate a little.
SEC will get a least 3 bids, possibly 4. TX is the only lock imo. UGA needs to win one of their last 2 games and they are in. TN has to beat Vandy to be a lock. (If they lose and Clemson wins then Clemson should move ahead of them).
B12 is a 1 bid league - whoever wins their championship game.
There will be one G5 bid - likely one of Boise, UNLV, Tulane or Army. That all depends upon how the next 2 weeks play out.
A&M is the potential bid stealer. They are out unless they beat TX and UGA back to back. But if they do that then someone else gets knocked out.
Clemson is interesting. They don't control their destiny but they are still alive. If Miami loses to Syracuse then they would play in the ACC CG and have a shot at getting the automatic bid. If Miami wins and SMU were to lose to both Cal and Miami and Clemson beats SCe then could Clemson move ahead of SMU - pretty likely. If Clemson beats SCe and either TN, ND or especially IN loses then could they jump one of those 2.

Still some funky scenarios out there.
If Clemson loses to SCe then ND, TN and IN all likely become locks.

I agree with almost all of your take. A couple of quibbles at the edges.

Purdue is a bad team. If Indiana struggles and edges out a 10-14 point win, their weak schedule could finally bite them.
I wonder if uga will be safe if they lose to A&M by more than a TD. They would have 3 losses and no other three loss team, save the SEC champ, would be in the CFP.
The Tennessee game with Vandy is interesting. Beating Tennessee makes the season for Vandy while a Tennessee win merely maintains the status quo. Emotions mean a lot in these rivalry games and it's more of a rivalry to Vandy.
Also, I don't think ND can squeak through with an exciting win that keeps viewers engaged. A lot of people still look at that schedule an think its not really as tough as the one Indiana played.

 

[stinger78]

This edges towards conspiracy theory territory, but I think SEC refs will be biased against Vandy and Auburn and to some degree Texas A&M. I wonder if Sankey has made it clear who is supposed to win?

I believe we have an SEC crew this year; we won’t get the benefit of the doubt in Athens

Conspiracy is not conspiracy if it’s true.

We do have an SECheat crew. The old arrangement changed after we beat UGAg 3 of 4 in Athens under CPJ (2008-16).

 

[MWBATL]

Conspiracy is not conspiracy if it’s true.

We do have an SECheat crew. The old arrangement changed after we beat UGAg 3 of 4 in Athens under CPJ (2008-16).

Funny how that happened. I recall SEC crews helping them out considerably in a few games in Atlanta prior to that….

 

[orientalnc]

Conspiracy is not conspiracy if it’s true.

We do have an SECheat crew. The old arrangement changed after we beat UGAg 3 of 4 in Athens under CPJ (2008-16).

I don't disagree with the premise that an SEC crew might tilt toward uga, but the officiating has not been a meaningful part of any of those games since our win in 2016.

 

[MWBATL]

I don't disagree with the premise that an SEC crew might tilt toward uga, but the officiating has not been a meaning part of any of those games since our win in 2016.

I recent years they haven’t needed the help. Especially when TFG was coaching…I’m sorry, he never did that…when he was in charge here.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Actually kind of happy to see posters pulling for rival ACC teams to make it to CFP. This is how you do it. SEC has known for decades that anything good for a fellow member is good for the conference is good for you.

 

[Lil G]

Imagine how wiped from the top 25 Clemson would be if they had 3 losses, 2 of them against unranked opponents.

And scored 3 points in one of those unranked losses. Forget about it.

 

[MWBATL]

Actually kind of happy to see posters pulling for rival ACC teams to make it to CFP. This is how you do it. SEC has known for decades that anything good for a fellow member is good for the conference is good for you.

Selfishly, doesn’t GT get a cut of the revenues from the CPF system that the ACC takes in? It is in our financial best interest to hope we can get 4 teams in one day...

 

[stinger78]

I don't disagree with the premise that an SEC crew might tilt toward uga, but the officiating has not been a meaningful part of any of those games since our win in 2016.

It hasn’t needed to since 2016.

 

[RamblinRed]

You won't see this type of article on ESPN.
I'm not saying TX doesn't deserve to be in the CFP, but if they are in, so is IN. The SEC teams TX has beaten this year are a combined 13-31 in conference and include 6 of the 7 worst teams (FL is the only one that is .500 or better in the conference, the other 5 all have losing conference records). Actually would not shock me if A&M won this week.

College football Week 13 overreactions: The SEC has been painfully average, Indiana remains CFP lock

Week 13 was disastrous for the SEC, which is seeing its multi-bid hopes slip

www.cbssports.com

Regardless of how it may have performed in recent years, the SEC looks painfully average this season, with Week 13 outcomes stripping away any mystique it still had.

This is a year when the SEC's soft scheduling philosophy really hurts. Georgia's Week 1 win over Clemson is the highlight of the nonconference results. Otherwise, Oklahoma's win over Tulane may be the next best. Certainly not befitting of a league that fashions itself as head and shoulders above all others.

Don't read this and think I'm saying the SEC is a bad conference. There's an absurd amount of talent spread among its 16 teams. But it hasn't performed like a league that deserves significantly more playoff spots than any other power conference.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Using the AP rankings published yesterday, the only team that would jump over Clemson is AZ State as the B12 champ. If Boise falls out of the top 12, why do you think a 3-loss SEC team would jump over Clemson? The key for Clemson is to keep winning and hope for more chaos higher in the rankings. Unless Clemson loses Saturday, Bama is not going to jump them by beating Auburn. Neither will Ole Miss if they beat Miss St.

I wouldn't my hold my breath. It’s the rankings that come out on Tuesday that matter. I could easily see them jumping Alabama above Clemson because of the head-to-head with uga for each of them. There's no associative property in football, but that hasn't stopped the committee in the past.

Yes. The teams at risk there are Clemson, Boise St, and Indiana. Clem plays USCe, Indiana plays Purdue. If Clem wins, it moves up at least to Boise’s spot, maybe Indiana’s (assuming all others win this week). ASU might move past Indiana or Boise.

Indiana would make sense, leaving 3 B1G, 3 ACC, 3 SEC, 1 B12, Indy, and G5 each. Perfect distribution based on current rankings.

And what happens if Michigan beats tOSU? Indiana plays Oregon in the B1G CG. Hard to put Clemson in above a B1G CG participant. It's just best for Indiana and Notre Dame to lose and for Clemson, SMU, and Miami to win big. GT beats uga and then Texas beats uga. Auburn beats Alabama, Vandy beats UTK, UTA curbstomps a&m.

 

[stinger78]

I would my hold my breath. It’s the rankings that come out on Tuesday that matter. I could easily see them jumping Alabama above Clemson because of the head-to-head with uga for each of them. There's no associative property in football, but that hasn't stopped the committee in the past.

And what happens if Michigan beats tOSU? Indiana plays Oregon in the B1G CG. Hard to put Clemson in above a B1G CG participant. It's just best for Indiana and Notre Dame to lose and for Clemson, SMU, and Miami to win big. GT beats uga and then Texas beats uga. Auburn beats Alabama, Vandy beats UTK, UTA curbstomps a&m.

Well, if you make a snow globe scenario, who knows?

 

[forensicbuzz]

You won't see this type of article on ESPN.
I'm not saying TX doesn't deserve to be in the CFP, but if they are in, so is IN. The SEC teams TX has beaten this year are a combined 13-31 in conference and include 6 of the 7 worst teams (FL is the only one that is .500 or better in the conference, the other 5 all have losing conference records). Actually would not shock me if A&M won this week.

The difference is if Texas beats a&m, they're playing in their league championship game. IN isn't unless UM beats tOSU.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Well, if you make a snow globe scenario, who knows?

What's the snow globe scenario? UM rising up from mediocrity to beat their arch-rival? Nothing snow-globy about that. The committee raising Alabama over Clemson if both win on Saturday? That's an easy one to imagine. They did it last year in the final week.

The rest was just for fun.

 

[stinger78]

What's the snow globe scenario?

The rest was just for fun.

The rest.