2024 CFB Playoffs

[FredJacket]

Twelve teams get in. We're to halfway point of the season. Not too early to chatter about how this may play out, right?

This is intended to kickoff the conversation / debate / SEC bashing (tic) / Committee bashing

This week's AP poll has 3 x B1G teams in the top 4.
The top 10 has:
4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
1 B12

The current ESPN FPI has 4 x SEC in the top 5.
The top 10 has:
5 SEC
3 B1G
1 ACC
Notre Dame

As for the playoff field, my "guess" is it will look like this:
4 x SEC (of these... Texas*, UGA*, Alabama*, LSU, A&M*, Tennessee)
3 x B1G (of these.... Oregon*, OSU*, Penn St*, Indiana)
3 x ACC (of these... Clemson*, Miami*, SMU*, Pitt)
1 x B12 (of these... Iowa St*, BYU, Kansas St)
G5 (likely Boise St... but if Army* and/or Navy beats Notre Dame... they have a shot)

*My current picks

I started to have 2 ACC and Notre Dame. ND controls its own destiny. Win and in... a loss to USC might not kill them depending on other outcomes. But I just think they'll lose to a team that will kill their chances (Ga Tech?, Army?, Navy?).

My playoff field:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Clemson
#4 Iowa St

#5/#12 UGA v Army
#6/#11 OSU v Miami
#7/#10 Penn St v Alabama
#8/#9 A&M v SMU

Mods... I did a quick look. If there is already a playoff thread for this season... please merge this with that. Thanks much.

 

[CEB]

Twelve teams get in. We're to halfway point of the season. Not too early to chatter about how this may play out, right?

This is intended to kickoff the conversation / debate / SEC bashing (tic) / Committee bashing

This week's AP poll has 3 x B1G teams in the top 4.
The top 10 has:
4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
1 B12

The current ESPN FPI has 4 x SEC in the top 5.
The top 10 has:
5 SEC
3 B1G
1 ACC
Notre Dame

As for the playoff field, my "guess" is it will look like this:
4 x SEC (of these... Texas*, UGA*, Alabama*, LSU, A&M*, Tennessee)
3 x B1G (of these.... Oregon*, OSU*, Penn St*, Indiana)
3 x ACC (of these... Clemson*, Miami*, SMU*, Pitt)
1 x B12 (of these... Iowa St*, BYU, Kansas St)
G5 (likely Boise St... but if Army* and/or Navy beats Notre Dame... they have a shot)

*My current picks

I started to have 2 ACC and Notre Dame. ND controls its own destiny. Win and in... a loss to USC might not kill them depending on other outcomes. But I just think they'll lose to a team that will kill their chances (Ga Tech?, Army?, Navy?).

My playoff field:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Clemson
#4 Iowa St

#5/#12 UGA v Army
#6/#11 OSU v Miami
#7/#10 Penn St v Alabama
#8/#9 A&M v SMU

Mods... I did a quick look. If there is already a playoff thread for this season... please merge this with that. Thanks much.

I would be pretty happy with this. Totally ecstatic if GT replaced Miami or SMU. Cynic in me says there is no way only 7 spots go to SEC and BIG teams.
There’s a decent chance that Miami and Clemson both get there, but I’d be shocked if a third ACC team sneaks in.
Let’s hope we knock ND out of the discussion this weekend…. but I suspect that just opens the door for another BIG / SEC team.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

Twelve teams get in. We're to halfway point of the season. Not too early to chatter about how this may play out, right?

This is intended to kickoff the conversation / debate / SEC bashing (tic) / Committee bashing

This week's AP poll has 3 x B1G teams in the top 4.
The top 10 has:
4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
1 B12

The current ESPN FPI has 4 x SEC in the top 5.
The top 10 has:
5 SEC
3 B1G
1 ACC
Notre Dame

As for the playoff field, my "guess" is it will look like this:
4 x SEC (of these... Texas*, UGA*, Alabama*, LSU, A&M*, Tennessee)
3 x B1G (of these.... Oregon*, OSU*, Penn St*, Indiana)
3 x ACC (of these... Clemson*, Miami*, SMU*, Pitt)
1 x B12 (of these... Iowa St*, BYU, Kansas St)
G5 (likely Boise St... but if Army* and/or Navy beats Notre Dame... they have a shot)

*My current picks

I started to have 2 ACC and Notre Dame. ND controls its own destiny. Win and in... a loss to USC might not kill them depending on other outcomes. But I just think they'll lose to a team that will kill their chances (Ga Tech?, Army?, Navy?).

My playoff field:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Clemson
#4 Iowa St

#5/#12 UGA v Army
#6/#11 OSU v Miami
#7/#10 Penn St v Alabama
#8/#9 A&M v SMU

Mods... I did a quick look. If there is already a playoff thread for this season... please merge this with that. Thanks much.

I heard a scenario that was hilariously wild and formed only to make people’s brain turn to mush but I loved it and wanted to share it here. Imagine both Army and Navy beat ND (again not probable but stay with me). Then, they finish the season 11-0 and play each other in the AAC championship game. The winner of the AAC championship game then goes on to lose the next week to the other in a rematch due to the special scheduling conditions of the Army-Navy game. Who gets in? Who gets left out? Do you take the AAC champion who went on to lose against their rival? Or do you take the team that avenged its conference championship loss? Do you dare to do the unimaginable and take BOTH Army and Navy?

It’s insanity I know, but it had just enough realism in it that it could make the committee have an insanity meltdown behind closed doors.

 

[GTpdm]

I heard a scenario that was hilariously wild and formed only to make people’s brain turn to mush but I loved it and wanted to share it here. Imagine both Army and Navy beat ND (again not probable but stay with me). Then, they finish the season 11-0 and play each other in the AAC championship game. The winner of the AAC championship game then goes on to lose the next week to the other in a rematch due to the special scheduling conditions of the Army-Navy game. Who gets in? Who gets left out? Do you take the AAC champion who went on to lose against their rival? Or do you take the team that avenged its conference championship loss? Do you dare to do the unimaginable and take BOTH Army and Navy?

It’s insanity I know, but it had just enough realism in it that it could make the committee have an insanity meltdown behind closed doors.

Nah, they would have a simple solution: put the 4th place and 5th place SEC teams in the CFP, instead.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

12 teams certainly makes the playoff more fair, at least on paper, since it gives more teams a shot. But, in my opinion, this will be a real test of integrity for the playoff committee. They’ve had some peculiar arguments in the past for leaving out some teams while putting others in. The committee would protest that this was not simply them favoring the SEC but rather the constraints of having a 4 team playoff that required some agonizing decisions. Now they are free, theoretically, to put in the most deserving teams based on records.

We shall see.

 

[FredJacket]

I heard a scenario that was hilariously wild and formed only to make people’s brain turn to mush but I loved it and wanted to share it here. Imagine both Army and Navy beat ND (again not probable but stay with me). Then, they finish the season 11-0 and play each other in the AAC championship game. The winner of the AAC championship game then goes on to lose the next week to the other in a rematch due to the special scheduling conditions of the Army-Navy game. Who gets in? Who gets left out? Do you take the AAC champion who went on to lose against their rival? Or do you take the team that avenged its conference championship loss? Do you dare to do the unimaginable and take BOTH Army and Navy?

It’s insanity I know, but it had just enough realism in it that it could make the committee have an insanity meltdown behind closed doors.

Agree. Crazy scenario if Army & Navy are unbeaten entering the AAC championship game. However... the winner there would be in (assuming they are the top-ranked G5 champ and/or in top 12 with committee) because playoff field is set on 12/8... BEFORE the Army/Navy game (12/14).

 

[yeti92]

sEcSPiN has already started spinning that Bama's loss to Vandy doesn't matter

 

[forensicbuzz]

12 teams certainly makes the playoff more fair, at least on paper, since it gives more teams a shot. But, in my opinion, this will be a real test of integrity for the playoff committee. They’ve had some peculiar arguments in the past for leaving out some teams while putting others in. The committee would protest that this was not simply them favoring the SEC but rather the constraints of having a 4 team playoff that required some agonizing decisions. Now they are free, theoretically, to put in the most deserving teams based on records.

We shall see.

They've already shown they have no integrity.

 

[forensicbuzz]

sEcSPiN has already started spinning that Bama's loss to Vandy doesn't matter

A Vandy that lost to Georgia State.

 

[JacketOff]

sEcSPiN has already started spinning that Bama's loss to Vandy doesn't matter

I mean, at this point it doesn’t. They’ve got one of the top 2 wins in the country at this point (them over UGA and Oregon over OSU), and if they win out they can make the SECCG. They don’t exactly have an easy schedule coming up either. @ #11 Tennessee, #19 Mizzou, @ #8 LSU, @ Oklahoma, and then Auburn. If Alabama makes it through that unscathed they’re in the playoff for sure.

If they lose another one though that’s when the controversy will begin. A lot of it depends on what happens throughout the country the rest of the way. Too much season left to even start politicking for playoff spots IMO. There’s 8 P4 teams undefeated, and a ton more with 1 loss. As we get deeper into conference play a lot of those teams will sort themselves out and make the picture clearer. Last year 4 P5 teams finished the regular season 12-0, another 4 went 11-1, and 6 went 10-2. With the new conferences I would bet there will be a lot less 0 and 1 loss teams, and more 2 and 3 loss teams. That’s when the politicking will matter.

 

[stinger78]

A Vandy that lost to Georgia State.

That lost to us.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I’m beginning to think that won-lost record is a more telling data point at this point than who you have played. Since almost anybody can beat anybody, getting through your schedule unscathed, or relatively unscathed, is a big accomplishment.

Beating any team not ranked in the top five means about the same if they are ranked 8 or 28. Everything is about how teams matchup and whether your team can gut out a win or not. Every game is hard unless you are a top 5 team.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

I believe there's no chance that the ACC gets 3 teams in. Hoping for 2, but skeptical.