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2022-23 Season
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 944637" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>I agree that the home win / loss weighting is way too much. I don't know how they came up with the .7/1.3 years ago; it would seem that the percentage should be related to the team winning % of two equivalent teams playing. So another way to look at it is that the home team is 65% (+ 1.3/ (.7+1.3)) likely to win and the away team only 35% (=.7/2). So I don't think home field advantage to my guess. I'd think more like 60% which would be 1.2 and .8. But to find two equivalent teams. </p><p></p><p>Then I check MLB and it's only 53%! <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Home_field_advantage#:~:text=While%20in%20all%20games%2C%20the,470%20on%20the%20road" target="_blank">https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Home_field_advantage#:~:text=While in all games, the,470 on the road</a>.</p><p></p><p>Then I found this that gives me perfect confirmation bias where college baseball home team is 60.26% likely to win (old data). <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/91970875.pdf" target="_blank">https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/91970875.pdf</a></p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]14311[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Gotta go to work, but an enduring question is why do the Brits seem to have some of the best betting related data?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 944637, member: 322"] I agree that the home win / loss weighting is way too much. I don't know how they came up with the .7/1.3 years ago; it would seem that the percentage should be related to the team winning % of two equivalent teams playing. So another way to look at it is that the home team is 65% (+ 1.3/ (.7+1.3)) likely to win and the away team only 35% (=.7/2). So I don't think home field advantage to my guess. I'd think more like 60% which would be 1.2 and .8. But to find two equivalent teams. Then I check MLB and it's only 53%! [URL]https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Home_field_advantage#:~:text=While%20in%20all%20games%2C%20the,470%20on%20the%20road[/URL]. Then I found this that gives me perfect confirmation bias where college baseball home team is 60.26% likely to win (old data). [URL]https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/91970875.pdf[/URL] [ATTACH type="full"]14311[/ATTACH] Gotta go to work, but an enduring question is why do the Brits seem to have some of the best betting related data? [/QUOTE]
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