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2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Nat'l Seed Watch
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<blockquote data-quote="Deleted member 2897" data-source="post: 576561"><p>As a reminder, we are tied with UNC for #1 Coastal, but own the tiebreaker. Miami is 1 game back, and owns the tiebreaker over us.</p><p></p><p>So if we go 4-2 against Duke/Pitt, either (or both) UNC and Miami would have to go 5-1 to finish ahead of us. (Ignoring some of the crazy 3-way tie rules for a minute.)</p><p></p><p>UNC finishes @Pitt (sweep is not a gimme up there on the road) and then home vs NC State. That NC State matchup is not what it was going to be a few weeks ago. But still, the odds of them going 5-1 with that schedule, I'd put less than 50/50.</p><p></p><p>Miami finishes @Wake Forest and home vs Duke. That also seems like too tough a 6 game stretch to see a 5-1 finish. I'd put that less than 50/50.</p><p></p><p>Of course, if we go 5-1, then it would require either (or both) of UNC and Miami to finish with 2 sweeps.</p><p></p><p>We won't catch Louisville overall in the ACC. (I can't see them going 1-2 and 1-2 against @Virginia and FSU.) . < 5% chance.</p><p></p><p>But after that, overall in the ACC, its Florida State at 16-11, 2 losses ahead of us, and with only @ Louisville left. They could finish with 16 wins, probably 50/50 at 17 wins, and a small chance of 18 wins. But in any case, even a 4-2 finish puts us ahead of them at the end.</p><p></p><p>NC State is 14-10. So to avoid ties, a 4-2 finish by us would require a 5-1 finish by them as well. They finish home vs Clemson and @UNC. Hard to see a 5-1 finish there.</p><p></p><p>CONCLUSION:</p><p>4-2 ACC finish probably puts us at a greater than 50/50 chance of being the #2 ACC seed overall and Coastal Champion.</p><p>5-1 ACC finish and I'd put it at greater than 95% chance.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Deleted member 2897, post: 576561"] As a reminder, we are tied with UNC for #1 Coastal, but own the tiebreaker. Miami is 1 game back, and owns the tiebreaker over us. So if we go 4-2 against Duke/Pitt, either (or both) UNC and Miami would have to go 5-1 to finish ahead of us. (Ignoring some of the crazy 3-way tie rules for a minute.) UNC finishes @Pitt (sweep is not a gimme up there on the road) and then home vs NC State. That NC State matchup is not what it was going to be a few weeks ago. But still, the odds of them going 5-1 with that schedule, I'd put less than 50/50. Miami finishes @Wake Forest and home vs Duke. That also seems like too tough a 6 game stretch to see a 5-1 finish. I'd put that less than 50/50. Of course, if we go 5-1, then it would require either (or both) of UNC and Miami to finish with 2 sweeps. We won't catch Louisville overall in the ACC. (I can't see them going 1-2 and 1-2 against @Virginia and FSU.) . < 5% chance. But after that, overall in the ACC, its Florida State at 16-11, 2 losses ahead of us, and with only @ Louisville left. They could finish with 16 wins, probably 50/50 at 17 wins, and a small chance of 18 wins. But in any case, even a 4-2 finish puts us ahead of them at the end. NC State is 14-10. So to avoid ties, a 4-2 finish by us would require a 5-1 finish by them as well. They finish home vs Clemson and @UNC. Hard to see a 5-1 finish there. CONCLUSION: 4-2 ACC finish probably puts us at a greater than 50/50 chance of being the #2 ACC seed overall and Coastal Champion. 5-1 ACC finish and I'd put it at greater than 95% chance. [/QUOTE]
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2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Nat'l Seed Watch
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