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2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Atlanta Regional
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<blockquote data-quote="ibeattetris" data-source="post: 585598" data-attributes="member: 1175"><p>Don't worry I won't slaughter you =)</p><p></p><p>Bunting has been less in vogue because in the long run, bunting reduces your max expected run per inning as opposed to not bunting. Of course, this is only true given a large sample, and the variance of baseball means small samples will vary outcomes widely.</p><p></p><p>Here is an example table from 2005-2008 and 2011-2012: <a href="http://www.boydsworld.com/data/ert.html" target="_blank">http://www.boydsworld.com/data/ert.html</a></p><p></p><p>Expected total runs</p><p><strong>2005-2008</strong></p><p><strong>Outs</strong> <strong>0</strong> <strong>1</strong> <strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>Empty</strong> 0.72 0.38 0.14</p><p><strong>1st</strong> 1.19 0.71 0.30</p><p><strong>2nd</strong> 1.52 0.91 0.42</p><p><strong>1st and 2nd</strong> 1.94 1.21 0.58</p><p><strong>3rd</strong> 1.76 1.18 0.48</p><p><strong>1st and 3rd</strong> 2.17 1.43 0.64</p><p><strong>2nd and 3rd</strong> 2.39 1.61 0.68</p><p><strong>Loaded</strong> 2.74 1.85 0.91</p><p></p><p><strong>2011-2012</strong></p><p><strong>Outs</strong> <strong>0</strong> <strong>1</strong> <strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>Empty</strong> 0.63 0.32 0.12</p><p><strong>1st</strong> 1.07 0.63 0.26</p><p><strong>2nd</strong> 1.39 0.82 0.38</p><p><strong>1st and 2nd</strong> 1.79 1.10 0.52</p><p><strong>3rd</strong> 1.67 1.14 0.45</p><p><strong>1st and 3rd</strong> 2.06 1.36 0.61</p><p><strong>2nd and 3rd</strong> 2.30 1.56 0.68</p><p><strong>Loaded</strong> 2.69 1.79 0.89</p><p></p><p>Percentage of scoring at least one run</p><p><strong>2005-2008</strong></p><p><strong>Outs</strong> <strong>0</strong> <strong>1</strong> <strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>Empty</strong> 35% 20% 09%</p><p><strong>1st</strong> 52% 34% 17%</p><p><strong>2nd</strong> 71% 49% 27%</p><p><strong>1st and 2nd</strong> 72% 51% 29%</p><p><strong>3rd</strong> 87% 71% 32%</p><p><strong>1st and 3rd</strong> 89% 70% 34%</p><p><strong>2nd and 3rd</strong> 89% 73% 33%</p><p><strong>Loaded</strong> 89% 71% 39%</p><p></p><p><strong>2011-2012</strong></p><p><strong>Outs</strong> <strong>0</strong> <strong>1</strong> <strong>2</strong></p><p><strong>Empty</strong> 32% 18% 07%</p><p><strong>1st</strong> 49% 32% 15%</p><p><strong>2nd</strong> 70% 47% 25%</p><p><strong>1st and 2nd</strong> 71% 49% 27%</p><p><strong>3rd</strong> 89% 73% 32%</p><p><strong>1st and 3rd</strong> 89% 70% 34%</p><p><strong>2nd and 3rd</strong> 89% 73% 32%</p><p><strong>Loaded</strong> 90% 72% 39%</p><p></p><p></p><p>Here is an article from 2009 examining this question as well: <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/10/904571/examining-division-i-college" target="_blank">https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/10/904571/examining-division-i-college</a></p><p></p><p>So to summarize, if your goal is to score one or more runs, you have a 49% chance with a runner on first with no outs, and you have a 47% chance with a runner on second with one out. So for one single at bat, you are only really dealing with a 2% chance, so it isn't that big of a deal. Over a 50 game season, if you bunt every time there is a runner on first with no outs, you are effectively reducing your overall runs per inning by nearly 0.2 per bunt.</p><p></p><p>This is data across all teams, so it is just a guideline. Individual player batting averages and chance of extra base hit will skew these numbers as well. Bunting with a pitcher in the mlb with a 0.011 avg is different than bunting with Mike Trout.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ibeattetris, post: 585598, member: 1175"] Don't worry I won't slaughter you =) Bunting has been less in vogue because in the long run, bunting reduces your max expected run per inning as opposed to not bunting. Of course, this is only true given a large sample, and the variance of baseball means small samples will vary outcomes widely. Here is an example table from 2005-2008 and 2011-2012: [URL]http://www.boydsworld.com/data/ert.html[/URL] Expected total runs [B]2005-2008 Outs[/B] [B]0[/B] [B]1[/B] [B]2 Empty[/B] 0.72 0.38 0.14 [B]1st[/B] 1.19 0.71 0.30 [B]2nd[/B] 1.52 0.91 0.42 [B]1st and 2nd[/B] 1.94 1.21 0.58 [B]3rd[/B] 1.76 1.18 0.48 [B]1st and 3rd[/B] 2.17 1.43 0.64 [B]2nd and 3rd[/B] 2.39 1.61 0.68 [B]Loaded[/B] 2.74 1.85 0.91 [B]2011-2012 Outs[/B] [B]0[/B] [B]1[/B] [B]2 Empty[/B] 0.63 0.32 0.12 [B]1st[/B] 1.07 0.63 0.26 [B]2nd[/B] 1.39 0.82 0.38 [B]1st and 2nd[/B] 1.79 1.10 0.52 [B]3rd[/B] 1.67 1.14 0.45 [B]1st and 3rd[/B] 2.06 1.36 0.61 [B]2nd and 3rd[/B] 2.30 1.56 0.68 [B]Loaded[/B] 2.69 1.79 0.89 Percentage of scoring at least one run [B]2005-2008 Outs[/B] [B]0[/B] [B]1[/B] [B]2 Empty[/B] 35% 20% 09% [B]1st[/B] 52% 34% 17% [B]2nd[/B] 71% 49% 27% [B]1st and 2nd[/B] 72% 51% 29% [B]3rd[/B] 87% 71% 32% [B]1st and 3rd[/B] 89% 70% 34% [B]2nd and 3rd[/B] 89% 73% 33% [B]Loaded[/B] 89% 71% 39% [B]2011-2012 Outs[/B] [B]0[/B] [B]1[/B] [B]2 Empty[/B] 32% 18% 07% [B]1st[/B] 49% 32% 15% [B]2nd[/B] 70% 47% 25% [B]1st and 2nd[/B] 71% 49% 27% [B]3rd[/B] 89% 73% 32% [B]1st and 3rd[/B] 89% 70% 34% [B]2nd and 3rd[/B] 89% 73% 32% [B]Loaded[/B] 90% 72% 39% Here is an article from 2009 examining this question as well: [URL]https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/10/904571/examining-division-i-college[/URL] So to summarize, if your goal is to score one or more runs, you have a 49% chance with a runner on first with no outs, and you have a 47% chance with a runner on second with one out. So for one single at bat, you are only really dealing with a 2% chance, so it isn't that big of a deal. Over a 50 game season, if you bunt every time there is a runner on first with no outs, you are effectively reducing your overall runs per inning by nearly 0.2 per bunt. This is data across all teams, so it is just a guideline. Individual player batting averages and chance of extra base hit will skew these numbers as well. Bunting with a pitcher in the mlb with a 0.011 avg is different than bunting with Mike Trout. [/QUOTE]
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