2017 Pitching Preview

[twofortheroad]

Leg is wrapped because with TJ they take a tendon from your leg to use in your elbow. He's doing great. Couple weeks out from surgery.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Some discussion about our team ERA of 4.73 last year and how we should be better this year. So I looked back at the last 5 years.

The numbers support our continuing to hit, we always seem to. And our pitching hasn't been good for the last 5 years except to two years ago (2014 was ok).

As a reference, to be in top 20 team ERAs last year you needed to be below 3.21 ....

Year, GT ERA, Opponents ERA
2016, 4.73, 5.96
2015, 4.83, 5.22
2014, 3.35, 4.13
2013, 4.35, 5.46
2012, 4.42, 5.60

I predict we get sub 4 ERA and if we get to 3.3 range, we will easily host regional.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Kind of funny how UNC was the opposite of us last year. They had a 3.16 team ERA but an awful D and not much power. From the sounds of it, UNC is totally loaded again in pitching......... it'll be an interesting series on 17-19 March.

http://www.collegebaseballnow.com/blog/tar-heels-looking-bounce-back-big-way-two-tough-seasons/

 

[FredJacket]

Kind of funny how UNC was the opposite of us last year. They had a 3.16 team ERA but an awful D and not much power. From the sounds of it, UNC is totally loaded again in pitching......... it'll be an interesting series on 17-19 March.

http://www.collegebaseballnow.com/blog/tar-heels-looking-bounce-back-big-way-two-tough-seasons/

UNC was a strange story last season. They failed to make the ACC tournament...barely. And with a pretty impressive RPI, the NCAA selection committee decided to keep them out of the tournament field. Not that I have a problem with it... but I do doubt they will repeat that this season. We should see UNC back to the top half of the conference...simply because the program is too solid to repeat 2016. I'm fine if they fail again, though. GO JACKETS!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Seniors:
· Jonathan King – an anchor starter I hope. Needs to stay healthy. Was in November according to Hall. Please stay healthy! ......
· Nick Wilhite – great outfielder and hitter. Don’t know much about pitching.

Just to continue to demonstrate how much I don't know, here's an update. But I do know that our pitching program is in total disarray as this review demonstrates. It is as it is.

I agree 100% with what @MWBATL just said in another post: "Maybe we just don't have good enough pitchers. It's not like we have had a ton of our pitchers make it in pro ball. Maybe we are recruiting the wrong kids, or maybe we screw them up when we get them into the program, I don't know." https://gtswarm.com/threads/2017-acc-baseball.11674/page-5#post-310492

· Jonathan King – an anchor starter I hope. Needs to stay healthy. Was in November according to Hall. Please stay healthy! King didn't thrown strikes before getting mono. Glad he'll get/has a degree, as a rSr, he's done. To me this shows the likely college career ending aspect of Tommy John. By that I mean, it takes a year to get back to pitching and then another year to maybe regain form. At that time most players are Juniors and will go in the draft if they have "potential".
· Ben Parr – solid last year with 4.18 ERA and 60.1 IP which is most of any returner. Pitched a total of 8.2 innings before a shoulder injury. As a Sr, I don't expect much from him if he could even come back next year. I don't know how late in the season you can pitch before burning a red shirt.
· Zac Ryan – high impact with return to form. No summer ball, but in November Hall said, "Zac threw the ball really well this fall. That was very encouraging.” Ryan stated off well but has lost it. I think the summer ball thing is important as a sign of how durable pitchers are. If they avoid summer ball, they may not be durable and flame out like Zac. I doubt Zac gets drafted.

Juniors:
· Jared Datoc – Hardly pitched last year with only 7.2 IP. Over the summer he got 15.2 IP in Coastal with a good 2.30 ERA. He could be a dark horse to come out. One of our two starters this weekend. 4.05 ERA in 40.0 IP. He has pitched better and should be contributing next year as I don't think he'll get a good draft (>$50K). At least he did summer ball.
· Ben Schniederjans. No idea. Injured last year. Had a 5.40 Fr ERA and a 6.75 So ERA. Ben S has been up and down and up again. With a 4.5 ERA in 34.0 IP he is an average ACC pitcher. Should contribute next year, as I also don't think he'll get a good draft (>$50K).
· Pat Wiseman. Must be doing better to have made the roster as his stats aren’t good. Is injured and didn't pitch this year. I don't expect him to contribute next year if he comes back. Hope he gets his degree too.

Sophomores:
· Tristin English is probably injured. Here’s what Hal said in November which gives me some hope that maybe he isn’t hurt and it’s all a misunderstanding, "Tristin's definitely going to go back to pitching as long as he's healthy and he's throwing bullpens and seems to be progressing, but he's also our best hitter," said Hall. "To this point those guys (Hughes, English and King) have all done well in their throwing programs and I'm very optimistic they'll be 100 percent and ready to go in February." Shows how well Hall can predict too. Zero for three. I expect English to be back next year and contribute in a limited way as he works to regain his control. That will be his rSo year and if he's rounding into form by end of the season should be a high draft pick again given his potential. Let's hope Tristin is great next year pitching since we are going to need some dominant pitching depth. I definitely think he'll be in the running for playing first base full time given his fielding at the position and hitting.
· Jonathan Hughes is essential and as noted Hall said he was doing well in November. Can't throw strikes. Not a good return from surgery which contributes to my view that it is usually at least a year to return to form if they ever do. Really sad loss of talent.
· Bailey Combs. Bailey had a great .64 ERA last year in only 14.0 IP. His summer was ok, 3.49 in 28.1 IP in Sunbelt. So I think he’ll come on better this year. 5.02 ERA on 14.1 IP. He's getting his chance now due to attrition. I don't expect dominance from him, just quality mid-relief.
· Burton Dulaney. 5.72 ERA last year in a lot of innings - 45.2. Especially for a Fr. I remember some games last year where he was really dialed in. Only pitched 4.0 innings over the summer so I hope he’s ok. Can't throw strikes and has only pitched 6.2 innings. He's not on the "hurt" list, but a tremendous disappointment.
· Jake Lee. Like Dulaney, a lot of innings last year – 45.0 with a 6.80 ERA. He was really tough sometimes; a lot of potential. Jake only pitched 12.0 innings over the summer. I'm optimistic about Jake really contributing next year because of his body language / attitude on the mound. This year down and up with a 7.09 ERA on 33.0 IP.
· Keyton Gibson. Another heavily used Fr with 43.0 IP and 4.40 ERA. He pitched more over the summer at 28.1 innings but had a poor 7.31 ERA in Coastal. Our second starter this weekend with a 6.84 ERA on 25.0 IP. This is his chance in the next month. He's had some good outings and some really awful ones.
· Micah Carpenter. 7.52 ERA last year and no summer. As I remember, control was his problem. 2.78 ERA in 22.2 IP. I would expect he's going to get a lot more IP in the last month. He deserves it.
· Robert Winborne. 7.20 ERA last year and hardly used in 10.0 IP. He had 29.1 IP in Coastal over the summer with a 5.52 ERA. So hopefully better. 6.38 ERA in 18.1 IP. Been up and down.

Freshman:
· Xzavion Curry – high impact expected. Was Perfect Game #194 overall ranked player. Here’s what Hall said about him in November, "If we started today Xzavion Curry is definitely one of our best pitchers," Hall said. "The trick with him is going to be how we're going to use him because he's also a very good infielder, he's a very good athlete. We'd like to try to use him as a two-way guy but we really need him to pitch. I was very pleased with him." Our best pitcher now. He had a rough ACC start but is getting it together. On a program with depth, he would have been eased in and protected. Could be a dominant pitcher in the next two years before he is drafted.
· Garrett Gooden – medium impact but I hope I’m wrong and he’s high. Was Perfect Game #191 overall ranked player. Doesn't have control.
· Connor Thomas – ranked #64 nationally by Perfect Game for all LHPs.
· Jay Shadday - don’t know a lot. Ranked as high as #11 pitcher in Georgia in 2016. So he has potential for later years. Shadday has really come on till the arm injury. After getting roughed up early on he got his ERA down to 3.52. I don't know how bad it is, but if it's Tommy John, I don't expect him to be a factor till sometime in his rSo year.
· Andy Archer – don’t know a lot. He also played water polo. Hurt. I watched him pitch a few of his 8.2 innings and like what I saw but still don't know a lot.
· Nick Wilhite – great outfielder and hitter. Don’t know much about pitching. 81.0 ERA in .1 IP. At least he got an out.

 

[FredJacket]

Just to continue to demonstrate how much I don't know, here's an update. But I do know that our pitching program is in total disarray as this review demonstrates. It is as it is.

I agree 100% with what @MWBATL just said in another post: "Maybe we just don't have good enough pitchers. It's not like we have had a ton of our pitchers make it in pro ball. Maybe we are recruiting the wrong kids, or maybe we screw them up when we get them into the program, I don't know." https://gtswarm.com/threads/2017-acc-baseball.11674/page-5#post-310492

· Jonathan King – an anchor starter I hope. Needs to stay healthy. Was in November according to Hall. Please stay healthy! King didn't thrown strikes before getting mono. Glad he'll get/has a degree, as a rSr, he's done. To me this shows the likely college career ending aspect of Tommy John. By that I mean, it takes a year to get back to pitching and then another year to maybe regain form. At that time most players are Juniors and will go in the draft if they have "potential".
· Ben Parr – solid last year with 4.18 ERA and 60.1 IP which is most of any returner. Pitched a total of 8.2 innings before a shoulder injury. As a Sr, I don't expect much from him if he could even come back next year. I don't know how late in the season you can pitch before burning a red shirt.
· Zac Ryan – high impact with return to form. No summer ball, but in November Hall said, "Zac threw the ball really well this fall. That was very encouraging.” Ryan stated off well but has lost it. I think the summer ball thing is important as a sign of how durable pitchers are. If they avoid summer ball, they may not be durable and flame out like Zac. I doubt Zac gets drafted.

Juniors:
· Jared Datoc – Hardly pitched last year with only 7.2 IP. Over the summer he got 15.2 IP in Coastal with a good 2.30 ERA. He could be a dark horse to come out. One of our two starters this weekend. 4.05 ERA in 40.0 IP. He has pitched better and should be contributing next year as I don't think he'll get a good draft (>$50K). At least he did summer ball.
· Ben Schniederjans. No idea. Injured last year. Had a 5.40 Fr ERA and a 6.75 So ERA. Ben S has been up and down and up again. With a 4.5 ERA in 34.0 IP he is an average ACC pitcher. Should contribute next year, as I also don't think he'll get a good draft (>$50K).
· Pat Wiseman. Must be doing better to have made the roster as his stats aren’t good. Is injured and didn't pitch this year. I don't expect him to contribute next year if he comes back. Hope he gets his degree too.

Sophomores:
· Tristin English is probably injured. Here’s what Hal said in November which gives me some hope that maybe he isn’t hurt and it’s all a misunderstanding, "Tristin's definitely going to go back to pitching as long as he's healthy and he's throwing bullpens and seems to be progressing, but he's also our best hitter," said Hall. "To this point those guys (Hughes, English and King) have all done well in their throwing programs and I'm very optimistic they'll be 100 percent and ready to go in February." Shows how well Hall can predict too. Zero for three. I expect English to be back next year and contribute in a limited way as he works to regain his control. That will be his rSo year and if he's rounding into form by end of the season should be a high draft pick again given his potential. Let's hope Tristin is great next year pitching since we are going to need some dominant pitching depth. I definitely think he'll be in the running for playing first base full time given his fielding at the position and hitting.
· Jonathan Hughes is essential and as noted Hall said he was doing well in November. Can't throw strikes. Not a good return from surgery which contributes to my view that it is usually at least a year to return to form if they ever do. Really sad loss of talent.
· Bailey Combs. Bailey had a great .64 ERA last year in only 14.0 IP. His summer was ok, 3.49 in 28.1 IP in Sunbelt. So I think he’ll come on better this year. 5.02 ERA on 14.1 IP. He's getting his chance now due to attrition. I don't expect dominance from him, just quality mid-relief.
· Burton Dulaney. 5.72 ERA last year in a lot of innings - 45.2. Especially for a Fr. I remember some games last year where he was really dialed in. Only pitched 4.0 innings over the summer so I hope he’s ok. Can't throw strikes and has only pitched 6.2 innings. He's not on the "hurt" list, but a tremendous disappointment.
· Jake Lee. Like Dulaney, a lot of innings last year – 45.0 with a 6.80 ERA. He was really tough sometimes; a lot of potential. Jake only pitched 12.0 innings over the summer. I'm optimistic about Jake really contributing next year because of his body language / attitude on the mound. This year down and up with a 7.09 ERA on 33.0 IP.
· Keyton Gibson. Another heavily used Fr with 43.0 IP and 4.40 ERA. He pitched more over the summer at 28.1 innings but had a poor 7.31 ERA in Coastal. Our second starter this weekend with a 6.84 ERA on 25.0 IP. This is his chance in the next month. He's had some good outings and some really awful ones.
· Micah Carpenter. 7.52 ERA last year and no summer. As I remember, control was his problem. 2.78 ERA in 22.2 IP. I would expect he's going to get a lot more IP in the last month. He deserves it.
· Robert Winborne. 7.20 ERA last year and hardly used in 10.0 IP. He had 29.1 IP in Coastal over the summer with a 5.52 ERA. So hopefully better. 6.38 ERA in 18.1 IP. Been up and down.

Freshman:
· Xzavion Curry – high impact expected. Was Perfect Game #194 overall ranked player. Here’s what Hall said about him in November, "If we started today Xzavion Curry is definitely one of our best pitchers," Hall said. "The trick with him is going to be how we're going to use him because he's also a very good infielder, he's a very good athlete. We'd like to try to use him as a two-way guy but we really need him to pitch. I was very pleased with him." Our best pitcher now. He had a rough ACC start but is getting it together. On a program with depth, he would have been eased in and protected. Could be a dominant pitcher in the next two years before he is drafted.
· Garrett Gooden – medium impact but I hope I’m wrong and he’s high. Was Perfect Game #191 overall ranked player. Doesn't have control.
· Connor Thomas – ranked #64 nationally by Perfect Game for all LHPs.
· Jay Shadday - don’t know a lot. Ranked as high as #11 pitcher in Georgia in 2016. So he has potential for later years. Shadday has really come on till the arm injury. After getting roughed up early on he got his ERA down to 3.52. I don't know how bad it is, but if it's Tommy John, I don't expect him to be a factor till sometime in his rSo year.
· Andy Archer – don’t know a lot. He also played water polo. Hurt. I watched him pitch a few of his 8.2 innings and like what I saw but still don't know a lot.
· Nick Wilhite – great outfielder and hitter. Don’t know much about pitching. 81.0 ERA in .1 IP. At least he got an out.

A very good post, @GTNavyNuke. It is very hard to believe all of the "troubles" this group has had. I really wish I could differentiate between what's just crappy luck & what's controllable. I'm certain it is some of both.

 

[65Jacket]

Good recap of our pitching disaster. It is so hard to figure what is the problem. Is it just bad luck, do we recruit fragile pitchers, do we do something to break them. It resembles what happened to our running backs on the 2015 football team,which was apparently a perfect storm against us.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I didn't update Connor Thomas as an oversight.

Any chance we see him in the next month? There was a post which speculated that we'd see him after finals .........

 

[65Jacket]

I didn't update Connor Thomas as an oversight.

Any chance we see him in the next month? There was a post which speculated that we'd see him after finals .........

Thomas is a mystery, nobody seems to know anything except he was ineligible until after the finals. How do you get ineligible that quickly? Apparently no one else has ever done it that I remember. How good is he? Why would we want to use up a year of eligibility at this stage of the season, considering the fact that this season is pretty much shot?

 

[RoosterJacket]

I hate looking ahead to next year already, but we REALLY need for these guys to improve over the summer and fall or else we will just be in the same boat again next year obviously.

Rising seniors:
I think Parr comes back for a RS Sr season. Probably depends on how bad his injury is that's kept him out most of the year. I think Datoc returns...hard to see him getting drafted as a 5'8" pitcher throwing upper 80's, but he's been one of our most reliable guys this season. Ben S. has gotten a decent amount of mound time which should only help him---and next season will be his 2nd after his arm surgery. So he should compete for a weekend starter spot or midweek starter again.

Rising juniors:
This is the group to me that MUST get better. I think they have a lot of talent, just still have not put it together for long stretches. Gibson and Lee should be good ACC starting pitchers. They've shown flashes of being able to get guys out, just have to put it all together. Carpenter has been the most consistent from the group and could be the closer next season (depending on Datoc's role). Combs has been a strike thrower and can be a reliable stem out of the bullpen. Winborne was great the first few weeks of the season and then hit a wall and started giving up bombs---if he can keep the ball low, he's a good long relief guy. Dulaney is a mystery--as a freshmen was maybe the most reliable long reliever for he team and then this season just has struggled mightily with control. I can't recall he last time he pitched. If Hughes can regain control, he should be competing for a weekend spot---2nd year after surgery so hopefully things start to gel for him. English--at this point I wouldn't expect for him to be on the mound next season, but his defense at 1B should help all our pitchers.

Rising Sophs: Curry needs to be a lights out guy on Friday nights. Taken some lumps this year but has shown he can be really good. Too soon to say on Shadday--could be out even next season if TJ surgery. Archer did ok at times, should be a long relief guy next season. Gooden is a guy we need to make huge strides. He has the potential, just needs to learn how to pitch at this level. I'll include Thomas here even though he will be a RS Fr. word is had he been healthy he may have been a weekend starter. Can only hope that is true and he is a huge asset next year.

I don't know enough about incoming freshmen and I have realized I just wrote a novel...

 

[65Jacket]

I hate looking ahead to next year already, but we REALLY need for these guys to improve over the summer and fall or else we will just be in the same boat again next year obviously.

Rising seniors:
I think Parr comes back for a RS Sr season. Probably depends on how bad his injury is that's kept him out most of the year. I think Datoc returns...hard to see him getting drafted as a 5'8" pitcher throwing upper 80's, but he's been one of our most reliable guys this season. Ben S. has gotten a decent amount of mound time which should only help him---and next season will be his 2nd after his arm surgery. So he should compete for a weekend starter spot or midweek starter again.

Rising juniors:
This is the group to me that MUST get better. I think they have a lot of talent, just still have not put it together for long stretches. Gibson and Lee should be good ACC starting pitchers. They've shown flashes of being able to get guys out, just have to put it all together. Carpenter has been the most consistent from the group and could be the closer next season (depending on Datoc's role). Combs has been a strike thrower and can be a reliable stem out of the bullpen. Winborne was great the first few weeks of the season and then hit a wall and started giving up bombs---if he can keep the ball low, he's a good long relief guy. Dulaney is a mystery--as a freshmen was maybe the most reliable long reliever for he team and then this season just has struggled mightily with control. I can't recall he last time he pitched. If Hughes can regain control, he should be competing for a weekend spot---2nd year after surgery so hopefully things start to gel for him. English--at this point I wouldn't expect for him to be on the mound next season, but his defense at 1B should help all our pitchers.

Rising Sophs: Curry needs to be a lights out guy on Friday nights. Taken some lumps this year but has shown he can be really good. Too soon to say on Shadday--could be out even next season if TJ surgery. Archer did ok at times, should be a long relief guy next season. Gooden is a guy we need to make huge strides. He has the potential, just needs to learn how to pitch at this level. I'll include Thomas here even though he will be a RS Fr. word is had he been healthy he may have been a weekend starter. Can only hope that is true and he is a huge asset next year.

I don't know enough about incoming freshmen and I have realized I just wrote a novel...

I have heard from day one that Thomas would not be eligible until the end of the semester. Now you are saying he would have been a starter had he been healthy. What health problems did/does he have? Back in the Fall, I was told by Wiley Ballard that a freshman pitcher was giving our hitters fits. Could that have been Thomas? I know it was not Curry.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

.... Why would we want to use up a year of eligibility at this stage of the season, considering the fact that this season is pretty much shot?

It really doesn't make sense unless Connor is a great pitcher. We'd get 2 1/4 years out of him before he is drafted vice 2 years. Slim chance of 3 more years of him pitching for us if he is great even if he is doesn't play this year.

Is it worth playing Connor IF he is good enough to make us competitive against UVa? And get another win in the ACC tourney? For the team it is, for him it probably isn't.

 

[RoosterJacket]

I have heard from day one that Thomas would not be eligible until the end of the semester. Now you are saying he would have been a starter had he been healthy. What health problems did/does he have? Back in the Fall, I was told by Wiley Ballard that a freshman pitcher was giving our hitters fits. Could that have been Thomas? I know it was not Curry.

My fault---I meant to write "eligible" instead of "healthy" for Thomas. Yes, he's one I heard was really good last fall along with Curry.

 

[65Jacket]

I get what you mean about going ahead and let him pitch now, because the draft will get him in two years if he is that good.

 

[twofortheroad]

From what I have seen and heard, the current batch of pitchers that are being used are the ones that will go the distance. Moving forward if they use anyone outside of Datoc, Combs, Carpenter, Ryan out of the bullpen and Ben S., Jake, Gibson and Curry as starters, it will be because we are ahead and aren't worried. Limited pitching for anyone else moving forward.

As for Thomas, my understanding is that he pitches live batting practice for a few innings every Wednesday. He didn't dress for either game this weekend.