2015 NCAA Regional Projections

[Stinger90]

FEB. 17th

I'm using CBD projections but D1 has on as well
1. Virginia (1) *
2. Alabama
3. Elon *
4. Army *

1. Maryland *
2. South Carolina
3. Liberty
4. Stony Brook *


1. Texas Tech (8)
2. North Carolina
3. Central Arkansas *
4. IUPU-Fort Wayne

1. Mississippi State
2. Oklahoma State
3. McNeese State
4. Bryant *


1. TCU (4)
2. Oregon
3. UNLV
4. LaSalle *

1. Florida State
2. Georgia Southern *
3. Ole Miss
4. Jacksonville State *


1. LSU (5) *
2. Southern Miss *
3. SE Louisiana
4. Jackson State *

1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. NC State
4. Northern Illinois *


1. Vanderbilt (3)
2. UC Santa Barbara
3. East Tennessee State *
4. Lipscomb *

1. Louisville
2. Central Florida
3. Ohio State
4. Presbyterian *


1. Houston (6) *
2. Baylor *
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Canisius *

1. Rice
2. Arizona *
3. Notre Dame
4. Wright State *


1. UCLA (7)
2. Cal-State Northridge *
3. Fresno State *
4. Sacramento State*

1. Arizona State
2. Cal State Fullerton
3. Loyola-Marymount *
4. Columbia *


1. Florida (2)
2. Washington
3. Georgia Tech
4. Savannah State *

1. Miami (FL)
2. Florida International
3. Illinois
4. Creighton *

 

[ibeattetris]

I loved going to the Florida regional to watch Tech a couple years ago. Would be great to see them there again (though I'd obviously prefer them do well enough to host their own).

 

[MWBATL]

This team might surprise some folks.

 

[AE 87]

This team might surprise some folks.

The people who say, "This is the year we get past regionals." Eeeeeyyooo

 

[MWBATL]

The people who say, "This is the year we get past regionals." Eeeeeyyooo

Huh? Not sure what you mean? I am just excited by what I see (at least initially). I worry about our pitching, but we may be seeing the return of hitting over pitching this year with the new baseball. Just saying' this year may turn out better than most folks think...

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The people who say, "This is the year we get past regionals." Eeeeeyyooo

I hope we get the Super Regionals this year. I'd bet that our baseball team has a better % over the last 30 years of getting to super regionals than our football team does to beat UGAg. Yet every year people say, this is the year we beat UGAg.....

 

[AE 87]

Huh? Not sure what you mean? I am just excited by what I see (at least initially). I worry about our pitching, but we may be seeing the return of hitting over pitching this year with the new baseball. Just saying' this year may turn out better than most folks think...

The "Eeeyyyooo" at the end was intended to tag the comment as a joke. Over the last several several years, we've had some good teams that have gotten our fans excited only to see them get eliminated from the post-season in the regionals.

So, I was joking that the folks our team might surprise this year are those who once again expect us to go farther.

 

[up state jacket]

Tempered enthusiasm is the best way to approach this baseball team. Like AE is saying, "Flame Out" has been used way too many times with some very good teams. Hitting definitely seems to be better this year than it was last year, but I am hoping like I have the last 30 years this will be the year I can go to Omaha for a mini vacation. Time will tell right?

 

[MWBATL]

Tempered enthusiasm is the best way to approach this baseball team. Like AE is saying, "Flame Out" has been used way too many times with some very good teams. Hitting definitely seems to be better this year than it was last year, but I am hoping like I have the last 30 years this will be the year I can go to Omaha for a mini vacation. Time will tell right?

I'm with you.I frankly do not EXPECT to get to Omaha, and the "experts" don't think our talent is there for such a result (hey, we were third seeded in the Regional...not even a Top 32 team according to the OP). Yes, I do think "this could be the year", but that's because I am a "fanatic" (aka extremist) when it comes to GT baseball. I admit it. My name is Mike and I'm a GT fan. <sits down now>

 

[GTNavyNuke]

By my math, 48 of the 64 regional teams "flame out" every year and don't make it to Super Regionals.

I kind of think that a lot of making Super Regionals and then the CWS is first being good and second being lucky. We seem to use up our luck in the ACC Championships where we are tied with Clemson for most titles ........

In 21 seasons under Hall, we have gone to Regionals 19 times. 3 times (16%=3/19) we made the CWS which has 8 of 64 teams (13%=8/64). No we have never won the CWS in those three trips ..... so it's time to fire Hall (tic)!

Does anyone know how many times we have gone to regionals and then on to Super Regionals under Hall? (I'd like the link too since I couldn't find source.)

 

[AE 87]

By my math, 48 of the 64 regional teams "flame out" every year and don't make it to Super Regionals.

I kind of think that a lot of making Super Regionals and then the CWS is first being good and second being lucky. We seem to use up our luck in the ACC Championships where we are tied with Clemson for most titles ........

In 21 seasons under Hall, we have gone to Regionals 19 times. 3 times (16%=3/19) we made the CWS which has 8 of 64 teams (13%=8/64). No we have never won the CWS in those three trips ..... so it's time to fire Hall (tic)!

Does anyone know how many times we have gone to regionals and then on to Super Regionals under Hall? (I'd like the link too since I couldn't find source.)

6. 13 of 19 post-season trips have ended in the regional. Three of those were 2004-2006, hmmm. Before that 1994 (2nd in CWS), 2000, and 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Tech_Yellow_Jackets_baseball

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks AE. I knew I saw the info somewhere.

Optimistic look: 6 trips to Super Regional of 19 NCAA trips is 32% which is better than the 25% which make it every year.

Pessimistic look: The last seven trips to Regionals have yielded no trips to the Super Regionals.

I still hope we make it to Regionals this year and then on to Super Regionals. I don't think anything is a lock, but I "know" this team will make it close and interesting.

 

[Squints]

I kind of think that a lot of making Super Regionals and then the CWS is first being good and second being lucky.

I'd argue it's the other way around. Baseball is an incredibly fluky sport and when you boil it down to best out of threes and double loss elimination the best team is going to lose far more than it should when you compare it to a longer series of games. You gotta be lucky. I don't think you can ask for any more than making the tournament and then it's a lot of dice rolls as far as I'm concerned. Unless you have overwhelming talent across the board which we've never had since I've been a fan.

I think our results have been fine. Especially if you look at each year with some context and not some block of "regional eliminations" and use some context. Mind you I didn't say great. But I don't think the results are worth bemoaning every time it comes up.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

......... But I don't think the results are worth bemoaning every time it comes up.

That's where I am based on the numbers. And the fact that we've been to the NCAAs 28 of the last 30 years (only two teams better) is phenomenal.

It's just semantics as to whether skill or luck is more important. If the stat I saw about a good baseball team (measured by rankings) beating an average team 65% of the time is right, then it's skill.

We don't have the players to consistently blow away UVa, Miami or FSU. But we had enough skill with luck to win a couple series from them last year.

 

[MWBATL]

To the point about talent not always winning, both Miami and FSU lost mid-week games last night, to Florida Atlantic and Jacksonville, respectively. Both by 5-3 scores. The talent lost. In fact, 3 of the only 6 Top 25 teams who played last night...lost.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

To the point about talent not always winning, both Miami and FSU lost mid-week games last night, to Florida Atlantic and Jacksonville, respectively. Both by 5-3 scores. The talent lost. In fact, 3 of the only 6 Top 25 teams who played last night...lost.

True, by this article the top 25 in the first week won about 65 of their 80 games. These teams that were supposed to be better lost in 15 games! http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/testtest/

A positive thought is to wonder when we'll make the top 25 ..... we could with a sweep this weekend since FIU is in the top 25.

 

[AE 87]

I'd argue it's the other way around. Baseball is an incredibly fluky sport and when you boil it down to best out of threes and double loss elimination the best team is going to lose far more than it should when you compare it to a longer series of games. You gotta be lucky. I don't think you can ask for any more than making the tournament and then it's a lot of dice rolls as far as I'm concerned. Unless you have overwhelming talent across the board which we've never had since I've been a fan.

I think our results have been fine. Especially if you look at each year with some context and not some block of "regional eliminations" and use some context. Mind you I didn't say great. But I don't think the results are worth bemoaning every time it comes up.

So, you're saying the post season is a crapshoot? I could swear I've heard that somewhere? Seriously though, I think that's part of it, but I also think 0-7 in getting out of regionals is probably also a bit like 0-7 in basketball games decided by less than 5 in the closing minute. Some of it has to do with coaching. We also went to regionals the last 9 years of Jim Morris. That being said, I don't really follow baseball enough to pass judgment on, or draw conclusions from, these observations. I simply offer them as entertainment.

 

[Squints]

So, you're saying the post season is a crapshoot? I could swear I've heard that somewhere? Seriously though, I think that's part of it, but I also think 0-7 in getting out of regionals is probably also a bit like 0-7 in basketball games decided by less than 5 in the closing minute. Some of it has to do with coaching. We also went to regionals the last 9 years of Jim Morris. That being said, I don't really follow baseball enough to pass judgment on, or draw conclusions from, these observations. I simply offer them as entertainment.

Maybe? I don't do basketball at all so that analogy is totally lost on me haha. And Morris is waaaaaaaay before my time the first year I really followed GT baseball was 2011 when I actually showed up on campus. Is some of it poor coaching? Probably. On the other hand I'd argue that the last three post-season berths show evidence of good coaching more than bad so I'm of the belief it's a bit silly and premature to advocate moving on from Danny Hall. But is some of it luck? Probably. Hard to tell exactly both where the line lies between the two and where on the good or bad spectrum.

I have no idea if that makes any sense to anyone but me but there you go.