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114 Years of GT Football – How will history repeat?
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 439590" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>There are always a lot of posts about how well we’ll do in a season based on the previous year. What is clear is that we have been more erratic under CPJ than O’Leary or Gailey. You really can’t blame that erratic performance on academics; so either it’s CPJ’s system or the current environment. Last season would have been much better is we hadn’t lost in OT to LSE or a tight one to Miami since we would have gone to a bowl. Or if we had played and won our 12th game. But we didn’t and that’s another fact.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/c77f/2ewzhq69l12v0a56g.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /> </p><p></p><p>This erratic performance makes it really hard to get a feel for where we will be in 2018. Here’s a chart that shows the change in power ranking from one year to the next on the Y-axis and the current year power ranking on the X-axis. As expected, when you start off with a high Power Ranking in the current year, you can expect to not do as well the next year. And vice versa.</p><p></p><p>This graph is more difficult to understand so here’s a description of the 2016 to 2017 seasons. The projection box on the right shows where in 2016 we ended up with a .693 Power ranking (good for us) and then the change to 2017 was a -.147 to the 2017 Power Ranking of .546. I did this graphically since a lot of numbers and dispersion data doesn’t make sense. Hopefully this does in showing that there is a lot of variability in the year to year performance.</p><p></p><p>This chart also shows where we were with our 2017 power ranking of .546 (or 54.6% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field.) on the x-axis and the next year change on the y-axis. You can see that the box above 0 is bigger than the box below zero. So in the past, we have usually done better after a down year. We should do better this year (2018) than we did in 2017 because our long term average performance has been higher. </p><p></p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/4c78/i82amakaap7qhk66g.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 439590, member: 322"] There are always a lot of posts about how well we’ll do in a season based on the previous year. What is clear is that we have been more erratic under CPJ than O’Leary or Gailey. You really can’t blame that erratic performance on academics; so either it’s CPJ’s system or the current environment. Last season would have been much better is we hadn’t lost in OT to LSE or a tight one to Miami since we would have gone to a bowl. Or if we had played and won our 12th game. But we didn’t and that’s another fact. [IMG]https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/c77f/2ewzhq69l12v0a56g.jpg[/IMG] This erratic performance makes it really hard to get a feel for where we will be in 2018. Here’s a chart that shows the change in power ranking from one year to the next on the Y-axis and the current year power ranking on the X-axis. As expected, when you start off with a high Power Ranking in the current year, you can expect to not do as well the next year. And vice versa. This graph is more difficult to understand so here’s a description of the 2016 to 2017 seasons. The projection box on the right shows where in 2016 we ended up with a .693 Power ranking (good for us) and then the change to 2017 was a -.147 to the 2017 Power Ranking of .546. I did this graphically since a lot of numbers and dispersion data doesn’t make sense. Hopefully this does in showing that there is a lot of variability in the year to year performance. This chart also shows where we were with our 2017 power ranking of .546 (or 54.6% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field.) on the x-axis and the next year change on the y-axis. You can see that the box above 0 is bigger than the box below zero. So in the past, we have usually done better after a down year. We should do better this year (2018) than we did in 2017 because our long term average performance has been higher. [IMG]https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/4c78/i82amakaap7qhk66g.jpg[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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