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#1 Offense vs. #2 Defense

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by ilovetheoption, Nov 10, 2014.

  1. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    So, I'm a big fan of FEI's efficiency ratings, especially this late in the season (the outliers have had a chance to work themselves out).

    Right now, Clemson has the second best defense in the country:
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef

    And GT has the best offenses in the country:
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

    Interesting: People are saying that GT's best bet is to methodically grind it out against Clemson, but the stats indicate that they are FAR more vulnerable to explosive plays than to methodical drives.

    Also interesting, They are EXCEPTIONAL at forcing 3 and outs, and GT is EXCEPTIONAL at avoiding 3 and outs.

    I LOVE a strength on strength matchup.
     
  2. steebu

    steebu Helluva Engineer

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    I'm not loving the strength on weakness matchup.
     
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  3. Eli

    Eli Helluva Engineer

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    I've been on the opposite end as I think we should go all in and challenge their freshman qb who hasn't played in a month to a shootout
     
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  4. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    Which matchup is that?
     
  5. ATL1

    ATL1 Helluva Engineer

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    Clemson is explosive, especially with Watson back.
    Long death marches May work as long as we score and I mean touchdowns not field goals.
    I'd rather keep the petal to the medal and foot to the throat and score score score as much as we can, as fast as we can, as often as we can.
     
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  6. yellojello

    yellojello Helluva Engineer

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    Their O vs our D?
     
  7. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    Their O isn't as much of a strength as your fans are making it out to be, at least by the numbers.
     
  8. Ibeeballin

    Ibeeballin GT Athlete

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    I agree and I also think we are underestimating the fact Watson is coming off surgery to his throwing hand. Would love to see if he can throw darts after being hit and falling on the hand
     
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  9. Eli

    Eli Helluva Engineer

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    id like to see the same thing from the defense blitz and press coverage with the occasional spy on Watson just keep him guessing
     
  10. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    Watson's big games were against UNC and NCSt, the #93 and #89 teams in Def FEI. I'm not persuaded that he's that much of a difference maker. CU's games against L'llville & Wake Forest were just as impressive compared to opposition D, by my quick look at the data.

    Just looking at FEI and past game scores, it looks to me like it should be close.
     
  11. GT Man

    GT Man Helluva Engineer

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    Agree. Good WRs and great QB. Marginal RB. Good opportunity to bring blitz frequently.
     
  12. Ash

    Ash Helluva Engineer

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    I'm just glad Sammy Watkins is not on the field with Boyd throwing to him. That kind of combo would kill us.
     
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  13. SecretAgentBuzz

    SecretAgentBuzz Helluva Engineer

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    Well, clearly, if we are #1, and they are #2, then we will win. Right? :)

     
  14. yellowRambler

    yellowRambler Ramblin' Wreck

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    Anyone who thinks Clemson has the #2 defense in country needs to get thier head examined. They're #2 in total defense, but they are #12 in scoring defense. They gave up 44, 154, 170, and 119 to SCST, NCSU, Cuse and WF. Take away those games and they are giving up over 350 ypg. Also played against FSU with no Jamies. UNC put 478 yards on them and UGA 459.
     
  15. Whiskey_Clear

    Whiskey_Clear Banned

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    Not disagreeing yellow....but their strength is Dline...ours is Oline. Clemson may have the Best Dline in the country. Will be a great matchup.
     
  16. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    By "thier head examined," I'm guessing you mean efficiency algorithm checked. The ranking is based on a measure of opponent-adjusted scoring-efficiency defense. Now, I suspect that these stats may be affected by the fact that defended an FSU without JW, but it wouldn't be by that much. Also, I don't think it's sufficient to look just at yards/game their giving up since they give opponents so many possessions. They're #1 in yards/play defense, #18 in ypp defense vs winning FBS teams.

    However, what the FEI really measures is that they keep teams from scoring, as a rule. CU was up 22-7 over UNC at halftime and then just matched scores. At some point, UNC's scoring drives wouldn't be included in the calculation because the algorithm doesn't consider the game competitive any longer.

    That being said, I agree with you that we have some reason for optimism. If CU's D isn't shutting you down completely, then you're probably going to be hitting big plays. Also, CU's O likes to play fast. If we can methodically march and score when we're on O, and CU's O plays fast, we could tire them out.
     
  17. Fatmike91

    Fatmike91 Helluva Engineer

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    Their Defense will outside the top 10 when we get done with them.


    /
     
  18. awbuzz

    awbuzz Helluva Engineer

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    I like your thinking Fatmike91!
     
  19. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    More statistical goodies.

    GT is #15 in the country in Turnovers forced, http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort03.html
    GT is #76 in the country in Total Defense, http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category10/sort01.html

    This adds credence to the thinking that Roof has the defense playing a hyper aggressive, high risk/high reward style. The team is giving up yards, but also forcing turnovers.

    I tend to believe that this is very much in GT's best interest, as playing conservative is just going to get you guys bled to death. Giving up two long TD plays and getting 2 stops is better than giving up three methodical TD drives and getting one stop.

    You guys just don't have the horses to play it straight.
     
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