“First Eight”, “or” positions, and “and” positions.

[slugboy]

We’ve had a 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, and now 2021-22 recruiting classes. We’ve also had four transfer classes, in and out.

We're also trying to figure out what next year is going to look like with new coaches and pressure to perform.

One indicator is the "first eight"; that is, which eight players out of the 22 on the field for offense and defense are matchup problems for the other team?
(Yes, skipping special teams).
Do we have a shutdown corner? Do we have a Troy Polumalu or Ronnie Lott at safety, or a Kam Chancellor somewhere on the field? A really disruptive DE? A guard or tackle that we can follow behind for a goalline score?

If you had to name eight players on the team that can give the opposing coaches heartburn, who are they?

-------------
Now, let's look at "AND" position groups and "OR" position groups.

Offensive Line is an "AND" position group, because it's largely defined by the weakest link. WR is more of an "OR" group because one Mike Evans can tear up the opposing team.

It's more of a range with "AND" on one end and "OR" on the other, because a great Guard-Tackle combo is enough to ride behind in some situations, and if you only have one great WR and the rest are below average, the defense can adjust.

I'd break the groups down this way:

OL: AND
WR: OR
Defensive Backfield: AND. -- This past season is a case study in one breakdown wrecking everything
DL: Leans "OR". -- Probably more in the middle of the range, but a disruptive D Lineman can still wreak havoc when the rest of the DL is "meh".
LB: OR. I've watched this with other teams, but having a disruptor here who knows their assignments is huge.
QB: OR.
RB: OR
TE: Leans OR, but if you rely on their blocking when they're the sixth OL. We needed a strong blocking TE last year, which burned us on the "AND" side.

 

[4shotB]

slugboy, at this point I don't know that we have the 8. Gibbs of course was one. I am not disparaging anyone but I would have to say across the board we don't have the guys who, when the opposing coaches speak in their pregame pressers, refer to the guy by either his number or name. Not saying that we don't have players but (imo) most coaches probably prepare for rosters like ours weekly and are not scheming around any one guy. I eagerly hope to be proven wrong. Before I go, I will say to my untrained eye, Dontae Smith has the most potential to be one now that JG and JPM have left.

 

[CEB]

slugboy, at this point I don't know that we have the 8. Gibbs of course was one. I am not disparaging anyone but I would have to say across the board we don't have the guys who, when the opposing coaches speak in their pregame pressers, refer to the guy by either his number or name. Not saying that we don't have players but (imo) most coaches probably prepare for rosters like ours weekly and are not scheming around any one guy. I eagerly hope to be proven wrong. Before I go, I will say to my untrained eye, Dontae Smith has the most potential to be one now that JG and JPM have left.

Agree with this. D Smith may be the one guy right now and I hope some emerge after Clemson. I think it’s pretty reasonable for opposing coaches to assume we will lean on D Smith early so there is opportunity for someone else to step up.
My biggest hope is that we start hearing opposing coaches talk about the importance of getting pressure on Sims... that means he is doing damage from the pocket and our OL is giving him the protect to do it... last year I suspect teams were more focused on keeping him in the pocket even if they weren’t able to pressure.

 

[yeti92]

Jeff Sims are the only two on offense at this point. Hopefully Blackburn or Blackstrain will be as well.

On defense... maybe Ivey, Charlie Thomas, Domineck? These 3 are probably the most disruptive when they have the chance.

 

[slugboy]

Good morning—we do have some numbers from last year. These are just offense, and they're not cleaned up for "garbage time", but they should give an idea.
They're from https://collegefootballdata.com/team/Georgia Tech

---

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Demetrius Knight II	QB	2.082	0	2.082
Azende Rey	RB	1.34	0	1.34
Malachi Carter	WR	0.949	0	0.949
Adonicas Sanders	WR	0.919	0	0.919
Peje' Harris	WR	0.712	0	0.712
Malik Rutherford	WR	0.689	0	0.689
Kalani Norris	WR	0.607	0	0.607
Kyric McGowan	WR	0.55	0	0.55
Jeff Sims	QB	0.404	0.433	0.394
Dylan Leonard	TE	0.374	0	0.374
Dontae Smith	RB	0.268	0.244	0.467
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	0.146	0.005	0.732
Jordan Yates	QB	0.102	0.305	0.052
Jordan Mason	RB	0.018	-0.111	0.848
Jamious Griffin	RB	-0.212	-0.212	0
Dylan Deveney	TE	-0.386	0	-0.386
Trad Beatty	QB	-0.416	-0.416	0
Ryan King	WR	-0.497	0	-0.497

On offense, we've got Malachi Carter, Jeff Sims, and Dontae Smith as candidates. I'm not sure who we would pick on the line. Maybe Dylan Leonard can take a step up, too.

In comparison, here's what Pitt's offense looked like

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Taysir Mack	WR	1.383	-0.151	1.492
Gavin Bartholomew	TE	1.237	0	1.237
Jaylon Barden	WR	1.214	0	1.214
Jordan Addison	WR	0.892	0.451	0.917
Jared Wayne	WR	0.875	0	0.875
Daniel Carter	RB	0.846	-0.115	2.768
Melquise Stovall	WR	0.766	0.711	0.77
Lucas Krull	TE	0.733	-0.362	0.758
Jake Zilinskas	TE	0.679	0	0.679
Nick Patti	QB	0.596	1.276	0.45
Kenny Pickett	QB	0.458	0.549	0.445
Shocky Jacques-Louis	WR	0.374	-0.023	0.481
Tre Tipton	WR	0.366	0	0.366
John Vardzel	WR	0.32	0	0.32
Israel Abanikanda	RB	0.275	0.192	0.638
Vincent Davis	RB	0.067	0.074	0.027
Davis Beville	QB	-0.185	1.074	-0.29
Todd Sibley Jr.	RB	-0.296	-0.296	0

Jeff Sims is not that far off from Pickett. Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but looking through the rest of the ACC, I didn't see a Jerry Rice or a Gronk out there. There’s also the problem that our blocking made our running look pedestrian.

By the way, if Sims has a pocket, he’s one of the deadlier QBs in the ACC—maybe at the top. The problem is that it’s a rarity.

We aren't the only teams lacking star power on offense

I think Pickett and Armstrong were the “tallest midgets”. There wasn’t a Trevor Lawrence this season in the ACC.

Here's UVA,

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Demick Starling	WR	1.637	0	1.637
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	0.966	1.987	0.954
Jelani Woods	TE	0.88	-0.247	0.9
Josh Clifford	WR	0.708	0	0.708
Ronnie Walker Jr.	RB	0.599	1.094	0.105
Ra'Shaun Henry	WR	0.588	0	0.588
Billy Kemp	RB	0.586	0.058	0.598
Keytaon Thompson	QB	0.557	0.395	0.617
Brennan Armstrong	QB	0.43	0.41	0.433
Devin Darrington	RB	0.369	0.274	1.132
Wayne Taulapapa	RB	0.367	0.348	0.467
Mike Hollins	RB	0.078	0.089	0.048
Grant Misch	TE	0.071	0	0.071

 

[first&ten]

Agree with this. D Smith may be the one guy right now and I hope some emerge after Clemson. I think it’s pretty reasonable for opposing coaches to assume we will lean on D Smith early so there is opportunity for someone else to step up.
My biggest hope is that we start hearing opposing coaches talk about the importance of getting pressure on Sims... that means he is doing damage from the pocket and our OL is giving him the protect to do it... last year I suspect teams were more focused on keeping him in the pocket even if they weren’t able to pressure.

I think Sims looks to run too quick ( mainly because of weak OL blocking ) so the defense looks to contain. He has a strong arm, sometimes that can be a + or - . Injury prone which never works out. This will be his make or break season. Please let it be the former!

 

[UpperNorth]

1. Sims
2. K. White
3. Blackburn
4. D. Smith
5. J. Williams / Quick (not sure they’ll play side by side. Not sure Quick will be a good player. Just need Williams to elevate his game this year and somebody to step up at guard)
6. Ivey
7. Biggers
8. Tatum

I’m playing this game Slugboy, but it ain’t easy! We have a bunch of ‘guys’, none of which have proven to be head-and-shoulders above anybody. Our best chance is for the new coaching staff to be a lot better and for our young talent to make incremental improvement across the board. Do that and we may see some stars emerge, but hopefully more than that, get our fair share of wins.

 

[4shotB]

I had one other thought on this. Of course mine aren't backed up by your excellence research. But recall all of the players who have had their career best games against us over the years/decades. Guys who, prior to the game, you simply were not aware of. But then a guy rushes for 200 yards or passes for 400 or gets 4 sacks or gets 150 yards in receptions. The point being, all of these guys in the conference and P5 ARE good athletes who will take advantage of mismatches. We have those too.

What we lack is the guy or gal who is going to get his or hers game in and game out. I remember playing competitive basketball. Yes, I could score 20 against the right type of team. But certain teams or styles of play I would be lucky to get 6. Or in golf, I play to a 10 handicap (maybe slightly better than average). I have shot par or better several times but not on certain courses. If it plays to a certain length where I am forced to hit long irons or hybrids or even fairway woods into par 4's I am NOT going to break 80. Courses for horses, or is it vice versa?

 

[yeti92]

Good morning—we do have some numbers from last year. These are just offense, and they're not cleaned up for "garbage time", but they should give an idea.
They're from https://collegefootballdata.com/team/Georgia Tech

---

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Demetrius Knight II	QB	2.082	0	2.082
Azende Rey	RB	1.34	0	1.34
Malachi Carter	WR	0.949	0	0.949
Adonicas Sanders	WR	0.919	0	0.919
Peje' Harris	WR	0.712	0	0.712
Malik Rutherford	WR	0.689	0	0.689
Kalani Norris	WR	0.607	0	0.607
Kyric McGowan	WR	0.55	0	0.55
Jeff Sims	QB	0.404	0.433	0.394
Dylan Leonard	TE	0.374	0	0.374
Dontae Smith	RB	0.268	0.244	0.467
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	0.146	0.005	0.732
Jordan Yates	QB	0.102	0.305	0.052
Jordan Mason	RB	0.018	-0.111	0.848
Jamious Griffin	RB	-0.212	-0.212	0
Dylan Deveney	TE	-0.386	0	-0.386
Trad Beatty	QB	-0.416	-0.416	0
Ryan King	WR	-0.497	0	-0.497

On offense, we've got Malachi Carter, Jeff Sims, and Dontae Smith as candidates. I'm not sure who we would pick on the line. Maybe Dylan Leonard can take a step up, too.

In comparison, here's what Pitt's offense looked like

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Taysir Mack	WR	1.383	-0.151	1.492
Gavin Bartholomew	TE	1.237	0	1.237
Jaylon Barden	WR	1.214	0	1.214
Jordan Addison	WR	0.892	0.451	0.917
Jared Wayne	WR	0.875	0	0.875
Daniel Carter	RB	0.846	-0.115	2.768
Melquise Stovall	WR	0.766	0.711	0.77
Lucas Krull	TE	0.733	-0.362	0.758
Jake Zilinskas	TE	0.679	0	0.679
Nick Patti	QB	0.596	1.276	0.45
Kenny Pickett	QB	0.458	0.549	0.445
Shocky Jacques-Louis	WR	0.374	-0.023	0.481
Tre Tipton	WR	0.366	0	0.366
John Vardzel	WR	0.32	0	0.32
Israel Abanikanda	RB	0.275	0.192	0.638
Vincent Davis	RB	0.067	0.074	0.027
Davis Beville	QB	-0.185	1.074	-0.29
Todd Sibley Jr.	RB	-0.296	-0.296	0

Jeff Sims is not that far off from Pickett. Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but looking through the rest of the ACC, I didn't see a Jerry Rice or a Gronk out there. There’s also the problem that our blocking made our running look pedestrian.

By the way, if Sims has a pocket, he’s one of the deadlier QBs in the ACC—maybe at the top. The problem is that it’s a rarity.

We aren't the only teams lacking star power on offense

I think Pickett and Armstrong were the “tallest midgets”. There wasn’t a Trevor Lawrence this season in the ACC.

Here's UVA,

Predicted Points Added​

	Position	All	Rush	Pass
Demick Starling	WR	1.637	0	1.637
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	0.966	1.987	0.954
Jelani Woods	TE	0.88	-0.247	0.9
Josh Clifford	WR	0.708	0	0.708
Ronnie Walker Jr.	RB	0.599	1.094	0.105
Ra'Shaun Henry	WR	0.588	0	0.588
Billy Kemp	RB	0.586	0.058	0.598
Keytaon Thompson	QB	0.557	0.395	0.617
Brennan Armstrong	QB	0.43	0.41	0.433
Devin Darrington	RB	0.369	0.274	1.132
Wayne Taulapapa	RB	0.367	0.348	0.467
Mike Hollins	RB	0.078	0.089	0.048
Grant Misch	TE	0.071	0	0.071

Can you explain or link an explanation of what this stat is supposed to mean and how its calculated? Prediction of points added...per game?

I'm just not sure how to value a stat that makes Demetrius Knight and Azende Rey seemingly really important while Gibbs looks mediocre and Mason is a negative contributor to our rushing.

 

[stech81]

May want to wait till after the spring game there will be a few changes after spring coming and going.

 

[slugboy]

Can you explain or link an explanation of what this stat is supposed to mean and how its calculated? Prediction of points added...per game?

I'm just not sure how to value a stat that makes Demetrius Knight and Azende Rey seemingly really important while Gibbs looks mediocre and Mason is a negative contributor to our rushing.

The stat source doesn’t look like it has garbage time factored out—I mentioned that in the post.

It measures how well you do vs where you are. If it’s first and 20 from your own one yard line and you go the distance in one play, you get more points added than if you go one yard on first and goal.

Here’s the official definition from https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary


Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).

Predicted Points (PP) are the same thing as Expected Points. There are various different models used to calculate EP. Predicted Points is this site's own custom EP model.

Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.

 

[GoodBuzz]

We’ve had a 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, and now 2021-22 recruiting classes. We’ve also had four transfer classes, in and out.

We're also trying to figure out what next year is going to look like with new coaches and pressure to perform.

One indicator is the "first eight"; that is, which eight players out of the 22 on the field for offense and defense are matchup problems for the other team?
(Yes, skipping special teams).
Do we have a shutdown corner? Do we have a Troy Polumalu or Ronnie Lott at safety, or a Kam Chancellor somewhere on the field? A really disruptive DE? A guard or tackle that we can follow behind for a goalline score?

If you had to name eight players on the team that can give the opposing coaches heartburn, who are they?

-------------
Now, let's look at "AND" position groups and "OR" position groups.

Offensive Line is an "AND" position group, because it's largely defined by the weakest link. WR is more of an "OR" group because one Mike Evans can tear up the opposing team.

It's more of a range with "AND" on one end and "OR" on the other, because a great Guard-Tackle combo is enough to ride behind in some situations, and if you only have one great WR and the rest are below average, the defense can adjust.

I'd break the groups down this way:

OL: AND
WR: OR
Defensive Backfield: AND. -- This past season is a case study in one breakdown wrecking everything
DL: Leans "OR". -- Probably more in the middle of the range, but a disruptive D Lineman can still wreak havoc when the rest of the DL is "meh".
LB: OR. I've watched this with other teams, but having a disruptor here who knows their assignments is huge.
QB: OR.
RB: OR
TE: Leans OR, but if you rely on their blocking when they're the sixth OL. We needed a strong blocking TE last year, which burned us on the "AND" side.

This reminds me of a EE lab. AND, OR, NAND, NOR.

 

[Techwood Relict]

This reminds me of a EE lab. AND, OR, NAND, NOR.

This is what happens when Slugboy gets a snow day .......

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Any chance a LB, DE or DT will become a problem for the opposite team?

Who was the DE that started out very disruptive but got injured? I would guess but it would be wrong and then I would be laughed at, mocked, derided and ridiculed.
(Just like any other Monday)

 

[CEB]

Any chance a LB, DE or DT will become a problem for the opposite team?

Who was the DE that started out very disruptive but got injured? I would guess but it would be wrong and then I would be laughed at, mocked, derided and ridiculed.
(Just like any other Monday)

The best way to find out is throw out the wrong name! Someone will be along shortly to correct...

J Domineck comes to mind but I don’t recall injury. He had some great games early but wasn’t as noticeable later on. Not sure if this was due to injury or if teams realized they needed to neutralize him to be successful. Someone who scrubs film could probably answer....

Charlie Thomas was another (at LB). He had a couple of monster games and was not as prominent down the stretch. Again, maybe teams realized they had to scheme away from him?

 

[Buzztheirazz]

Any chance a LB, DE or DT will become a problem for the opposite team?

Who was the DE that started out very disruptive but got injured? I would guess but it would be wrong and then I would be laughed at, mocked, derided and ridiculed.
(Just like any other Monday)

K. Harris maybe. Not sure about injury but he was supposedly disruptive in Practice. Or Keion White.

 

[TromboneJacket]

I suppose it depends on what the threshold is for those “Top 8” players. And what it means for the opposing coach to have to plan around them. I’ll put Sims on the list (even though the opposing DC will always be scheming around the QB no matter how good or bad he is) because of his athleticism and arm strength. One of our issues has been that we have a number of guys who, on paper, look like they could be those dominant players, but we haven’t had guys producing like that for the most part.

In no particular order, let me see if I can come up with 8 guys:

1. Jeff Sims QB
2. Dontae Smith RB (I think he’s earned the attention of our opponents)
3. Jordan Domineck EDGE (he plays great when he’s asked to play his natural position)
4. Jared Ivey DE
5. Charlie Thomas LB
And this is where it starts getting iffy.
6. Ace Eley LB (he’s played well, but I don’t know whether we can say he needs to be schemed around. It’s tricky judging LBs who aren’t All-Conference or obvious early draft picks)
7. Leo Blackburn WR (Going entirely off potential with this one, which is part of the problem I mentioned)
8. Zeek Biggers DT (Another based on potential)

On another note, is it just me or have we been snakebit with WRs? Brown looked pretty dominant in 2019 and then basically disappeared the following year before transferring. Bryce Gowdy looked really promising and was highly rated, and then his tragedy happened before he got to campus. Then Leo Blackburn looked promising and apparently was really balling out in practices, and then he gets a season-ending injury right before the season starts. Any one of them or even all of them could have been these types of dominant players, and if things had shaken out differently we could have had all three on the field last year balling out and excited to get even better this year, but instead we got none of them on the field last year, and only one of them is currently on campus.

 

[alagold]

The fact that we struggle to come up with maybe 4 PROVEN "concerning"names tells the story of this team.Either there is not much talent and/or it hasn't been coached up.

 

[yeti92]

The fact that we struggle to come up with maybe 4 PROVEN "concerning"names tells the story of this team.Either there is not much talent and/or it hasn't been coached up.

Well we have at least six DBs who were 4 star recruits out of high school that have had little impact on the field, so I'll let you figure that out.

 

[Gtswifty81]

In general this is a year that Collins recruits and transfers have to step up. Hopefully our top 8 includes some names who haven’t played a lot of minutes. Our secondary can improve by avoiding busted coverages without more individual talent.