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Win Total Predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="GetYourBuzzOn" data-source="post: 959184" data-attributes="member: 6610"><p>SP+ was updated today. As expected, GT improved- from -5.4 to -<strong>4.6</strong></p><p></p><p>23.7 (75) for Offense, 28.2 (79) Defense, and -.1 (115) for Special Teams</p><p></p><p>You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread.</p><p></p><p>Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the <a href="https://unabated.com/" target="_blank">Unabated</a> site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.</p><p></p><p>Here is what I have after week 1:</p><p>Louisville (neutral site) / <strong>Loss </strong>/ 0%</p><p>SC State / <strong>-28.5</strong> / 97.53%</p><p>@ Ole Miss / <strong>+24</strong> / 4.64%</p><p>@ Wake / <strong>+11.5</strong> / 19.23%</p><p>Bowling Green / <strong>-16</strong> / 87.26%</p><p>@ Miami / <strong>+19</strong> / 8.84%</p><p>BC / <strong>-6.5</strong> / 67.95%</p><p>UNC / <strong>+19.5</strong> / 8.47%</p><p>@ UVA / <strong>-9.5</strong> / 76.08%</p><p>@ Clemson / <strong>+19</strong> / 8.84%</p><p>Syracuse / <strong>+12.5</strong> / 18.05%</p><p>UGA / <strong>+35</strong> / 0.53%</p><p></p><p>Projected Win Total of <strong>3.97</strong> wins.</p><p></p><p>Furthermore, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation w/ 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins. The STDEV is very low (most are in the 1.2, 1.3 range) due to lack of "toss up" games on the schedule, so I don't expect a lot of variance from these numbers.</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>ACC</td><td>AVERAGE:</td><td><p style="text-align: right">3.9633</p> </td><td></td><td># WINS</td><td>FREQ</td><td>%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>MODE:</td><td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> </td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.03%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>STDEV:</td><td><p style="text-align: right">1.06455</p> </td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">57</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.57%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>MIN:</td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">665</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">6.65%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>MAX:</td><td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> </td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">2557</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">25.57%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">3821</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">38.21%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">2209</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">22.09%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">578</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">5.78%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">102</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">1.02%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.08%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">9</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.00%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.00%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">11</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.00%</p> </td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td><p style="text-align: right">12</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> </td><td><p style="text-align: right">0.00%</p> </td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GetYourBuzzOn, post: 959184, member: 6610"] SP+ was updated today. As expected, GT improved- from -5.4 to -[B]4.6[/B] 23.7 (75) for Offense, 28.2 (79) Defense, and -.1 (115) for Special Teams You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data located behind a paywall on the [URL='https://unabated.com/']Unabated[/URL] site. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals. Here is what I have after week 1: Louisville (neutral site) / [B]Loss [/B]/ 0% SC State / [B]-28.5[/B] / 97.53% @ Ole Miss / [B]+24[/B] / 4.64% @ Wake / [B]+11.5[/B] / 19.23% Bowling Green / [B]-16[/B] / 87.26% @ Miami / [B]+19[/B] / 8.84% BC / [B]-6.5[/B] / 67.95% UNC / [B]+19.5[/B] / 8.47% @ UVA / [B]-9.5[/B] / 76.08% @ Clemson / [B]+19[/B] / 8.84% Syracuse / [B]+12.5[/B] / 18.05% UGA / [B]+35[/B] / 0.53% Projected Win Total of [B]3.97[/B] wins. Furthermore, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation w/ 10000 iterations to get a distribution of wins. The STDEV is very low (most are in the 1.2, 1.3 range) due to lack of "toss up" games on the schedule, so I don't expect a lot of variance from these numbers. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Georgia Tech[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]AVERAGE:[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3.9633[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]# WINS[/TD] [TD]FREQ[/TD] [TD]%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]MODE:[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.03%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]STDEV:[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]1.06455[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]1[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]57[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.57%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]MIN:[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]2[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]665[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]6.65%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]MAX:[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]2557[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]25.57%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]4[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]3821[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]38.21%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]2209[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]22.09%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]6[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]578[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]5.78%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]7[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]102[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]1.02%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]8[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.08%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]9[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.00%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]10[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.00%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]11[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.00%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]12[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0.00%[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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