Why punt? Ever.

Randy Carson

Randy Carson

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It's the off-season, so what the hey.
  • If you never punt, you have four downs to get 10 yards.
  • If you never punt, your play-calling changes.
  • If you never punt, and you're deep in your own territory, your offense is highly motivated to convert that fourth down.
  • If you never punt, you will convert a few fourth downs, score a few more points, and thereby off-set the extra points the other team scores when you turn the ball over in bad field position.
😐

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RamblinRed

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1. This is true
2. This is true, but not always for the better
3. This is pure supposition and may be completely untrue. The offense may be less motivated that it was unable to move the ball and be less likely to make it on 4th down.
4. This is also complete speculation that may very well turn out to be false.

The idea of always going for it on 4th down seems like an absolutist position that is unlikely to work in the 'real world' of a game. First off, if an opponent knows you are always going to go for it on fourth down there play calling will likely change as well. That may work to your advantage or it may work to your disadvantage.

Let's take a scenario. 1st and 10 on the 25. You run on first down and gain 2 yds. Second and eight. You pass on second down, but it is incomplete. Third and 8. You pass and complete for a first down, but wait there is a penalty - holding, now you have 3rd and 18 on the 17 yd line. You expect to have 2 downs so you pass so gain yardage. Get 9 yds back - half way there. 4th and 9 on your own 26. Are you really going to go for it. If you make it great, your drive continues, but if you fail your opponent gains possession starting basically within scoring range. What are the odds of converting the 4th and 9.

This is a great thought exercise.
 
bobongo

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Last edited:
BurdellJacket

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RamblinRed said:
1. This is true
2. This is true, but not always for the better
3. This is pure supposition and may be completely untrue. The offense may be less motivated that it was unable to move the ball and be less likely to make it on 4th down.
4. This is also complete speculation that may very well turn out to be false.

The idea of always going for it on 4th down seems like an absolutist position that is unlikely to work in the 'real world' of a game. First off, if an opponent knows you are always going to go for it on fourth down there play calling will likely change as well. That may work to your advantage or it may work to your disadvantage.

Let's take a scenario. 1st and 10 on the 25. You run on first down and gain 2 yds. Second and eight. You pass on second down, but it is incomplete. Third and 8. You pass and complete for a first down, but wait there is a penalty - holding, now you have 3rd and 18 on the 17 yd line. You expect to have 2 downs so you pass so gain yardage. Get 9 yds back - half way there. 4th and 9 on your own 26. Are you really going to go for it. If you make it great, your drive continues, but if you fail your opponent gains possession starting basically within scoring range. What are the odds of converting the 4th and 9.

This is a great thought exercise.
Click to expand...

I think he is stretching a point to say “never punt”. There have been several statistical analyses which have indicated that is best to go for it on fourth down given you are outside your own 35 or 40 yard line and have less than 3 yards to go.
 
GTNavyNuke

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bobongo said:
www.businessinsider.com

The Country's Most Radical Football Coach Explains Why You Should Never Punt

www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com


"This paper takes a first step toward testing the assumption that firms maximize profits by examining a specific strategic decision in professional sports: the choice in football between kicking and trying for a first down on fourth down."
Click to expand...

Thanks for finding this. I remember it vaguely.

Also, why not on-sides kick every chance? (As discussed in article)

And go for 2 every chance?

For all these options, it depends how successful you think you will be by not punting / on-sides / 2 point. And how good you are punting / on-sides / 2 point. While this tactic may work in a closely matched game, if we try it against Clemson to open the season, it would only magnify the size of the Clemson win. When grossly overmatched, a team needs to slow the game down as much as possible to magnify the lucky breaks, IMHO.
 

lastoption

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Probably old hat but similarly I’ve always wondered if anyone coaches players to not gain as many yards as possible in certain circumstances. I have seen some analysis of this (not sure how rigorous) but seems plausible that if the choice is to say get tackled or run out of bounds somewhere around 12-15 yard line vs having first and goal at 10, it is quite a bit more advantageous to have first and 10
At the 12-15. Similarly i would guess that the expected points per drive would slightly increase if a team had second and 1 or 2 at an opponents 41-42 vs 1st and 10 at opponents 40. Probably rarely comes up but could see quarterback in particular being coached to run out of bounds or slide right before the sticks on first down scramble as opposed to getting exactly what is necessary for first down.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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Randy Carson said:
It's the off-season, so what the hey.
  • If you never punt, you have four downs to get 10 yards.
  • If you never punt, your play-calling changes.
  • If you never punt, and you're deep in your own territory, your offense is highly motivated to convert that fourth down.
  • If you never punt, you will convert a few fourth downs, score a few more points, and thereby off-set the extra points the other team scores when you turn the ball over in bad field position.
😐

What? You want to continue arguing about locking threads?

Have fun.
Click to expand...
Missing the big picture here.

It depends on the Uniform color and if that set of downs is under center or in the shotgun
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Randy Carson said:
It's the off-season, so what the hey.
  • If you never punt, you have four downs to get 10 yards.
  • If you never punt, your play-calling changes.
  • If you never punt, and you're deep in your own territory, your offense is highly motivated to convert that fourth down.
  • If you never punt, you will convert a few fourth downs, score a few more points, and thereby off-set the extra points the other team scores when you turn the ball over in bad field position.
😐

What? You want to continue arguing about locking threads?

Have fun.
Click to expand...
Good idea...until you fail to gain a first down on your side of the 50 a few times, then it gets sticky in the post game press conferences.
 
bobongo

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GTNavyNuke said:
Thanks for finding this. I remember it vaguely.

Also, why not on-sides kick every chance? (As discussed in article)

And go for 2 every chance?

For all these options, it depends how successful you think you will be by not punting / on-sides / 2 point. And how good you are punting / on-sides / 2 point. While this tactic may work in a closely matched game, if we try it against Clemson to open the season, it would only magnify the size of the Clemson win. When grossly overmatched, a team needs to slow the game down as much as possible to magnify the lucky breaks, IMHO.
Click to expand...
You come out ahead if you punt a lot less, and that's been shown by statistical analysis. But coaches aren't going to stick their necks out that far. It actually makes sense to go for it on 4th and short in most situations - even deep in your own territory - but if a coach tries it and fails, he'll be roasted alive by the fans. If he punts and the other team scores in short order on a short field, no one will blame him. Paradoxically, the risk/reward for the coach is a much different calculation than the risk/reward for the team. So even if a coach thinks it's the right thing to do, he's going to be reluctant to try it.

I think onside kicks should be tried more often. I think they actually succeed about 60% of the time when unexpected, but obviously if they're done too often then the element of surprise would be lost.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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BurdellJacket said:
I think he is stretching a point to say “never punt”. There have been several statistical analyses which have indicated that is best to go for it on fourth down given you are outside your own 35 or 40 yard line and have less than 3 yards to go.
Click to expand...
If I had a defense like Alabama or UGA, I might be punting on third down. The Presbyterian College coach Kevin Kelley, a high school coaching legend in Arkansas tried this last year with dismal results.
PC did not try a field goal but did try 48 onside kicks recovering 9 of them
They punted just 13 times in 11 games. Went for it 84 times on fourth down and were successful 34% of the time.
The Blue Hose threw 35 interceptions including 7 against Campbell in a 72-0 loss.
All those missed fourth downs and interceptions resulted in a lot of blowouts...for the other team. 35-70 against Valpariso and 14-56 against Stetson. They gave up about 53 points per game but at least the punter was well rested.
 

Billygoat91

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Never punt, never kick field goals, only onside kicks.
-Dont have to use roster spots for specialists
- can focus practice reps on offense and defense
- teach a random player to do the onside kicks

I believe there is a D2 or D3 coach that does this, or at least used to, when he was a high school coach in arkansas
 

Tundeballer

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Sounds like a horrendous idea, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a fringe power 5 program does this within reason in 5-10 years and we all discover it’s like the 3pt shot in basketball and makes offenses more efficient.
 
Randy Carson

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Just because you never punt, it doesn't mean you don't kick field goals.

You're trying to gain yards or score TD's on first, second or third down. On fourth down, you're either going for yards or kicking a field goal. If you have a kicker who can consistently nail 50-yarders, then once your team gets to the opponent's 35 or so, you're taking three points on fourth down.

Between the 30's, not punting means you're counting on your defense to get stop (and maybe you give up a TD or field goal yourself). Inside your own 30, not punting on fourth down will have your own fans screaming at you...unless your fanbase has bought into your concept and understand WHY you do what you do.

Like running the TO, for example. <running and ducking>
 
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