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Which college football coaches consistently produce overachievers or underachievers? [Bill Connelly]
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<blockquote data-quote="YJMD" data-source="post: 433495" data-attributes="member: 1929"><p>From the article,</p><p></p><p>'It is intended to say "Given your success rates, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc., you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." It has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments.'</p><p></p><p>It's hard to know exactly what that means. As I read it, it makes me think this is a purely calculated stat and really measures how good of a game day coach someone is. It doesn't refer to recruiting rankings, strength of schedule, etc. Its game win prediction is based on how you perform on average in the past from the same spot. Since it doesn't factor in strength of opponent, it would be less accurate over small data sets but a better measure with large amount of data. In a small set, it also seems quite susceptible to random variation.</p><p></p><p>So.... We need to look at it over a span of years. I'm not sure how much system matters here. It might be that the TO is better at fending off comebacks due to limited possessions so those coaches are more able to play keep away when they gain an unexpected advantage. And that would more than offset any disadvantage in trying to come from behind to win games you are unexpectedly in the hole in. Or it could be some guys are just better winners, e.g. through coaching adjustments or player motivation.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="YJMD, post: 433495, member: 1929"] From the article, 'It is intended to say "Given your success rates, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc., you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." It has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments.' It's hard to know exactly what that means. As I read it, it makes me think this is a purely calculated stat and really measures how good of a game day coach someone is. It doesn't refer to recruiting rankings, strength of schedule, etc. Its game win prediction is based on how you perform on average in the past from the same spot. Since it doesn't factor in strength of opponent, it would be less accurate over small data sets but a better measure with large amount of data. In a small set, it also seems quite susceptible to random variation. So.... We need to look at it over a span of years. I'm not sure how much system matters here. It might be that the TO is better at fending off comebacks due to limited possessions so those coaches are more able to play keep away when they gain an unexpected advantage. And that would more than offset any disadvantage in trying to come from behind to win games you are unexpectedly in the hole in. Or it could be some guys are just better winners, e.g. through coaching adjustments or player motivation. [/QUOTE]
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Which college football coaches consistently produce overachievers or underachievers? [Bill Connelly]
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