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When does Pastner feel heat
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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 905582" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>Comparing this year's roster and his first years. Noting prior production and/or recruiting rankings. </p><p></p><p>Year 1 - </p><p>Okogie - freshman 3* by the recruiting services. </p><p>Lammers - former 3* recruit. Junior. Had played 15 mpg previous year and got 3.6/4 with 1.3 blocks. </p><p>Jackson - 4* top 100 type of recruit. Junior who had gotten about 15 mpg the prior two years averaging 5.4 and 4.7 ppg on sub 30/sub 40% shooting. </p><p>Stephens - 3* senior who had gotten about 20 mpg the previous two years averaging 6/5 ppg respectively and 3/4 rpg respectively. Sub 40% from the field each year and a respectable 32% from the 3 as a junior. </p><p>Heath - Former 2* transfer Senior had played about 18 mpg each of the previous two years. Good A/T ratio but low total numbers (2.7 and 2.8) and not great scoring, (4.3 and 2.7). Sub 30% 3 point shooter. </p><p>Justin Moore - Freshman 3* rated lower than Okogie but higher than Matthews by 247. </p><p>Heyward - redshirt senior. Think either former walk on or a lower rated recruit. Doesn't show up when looking at 247 historical classes. Either way, had played sparingly 12-16 minutes his first two years here, but didn't contribute much in the way of stats. Good hustle player. </p><p>Gueye - 3* redshirt soph who had played in just 8 games his freshman year before redshirtting his soph. </p><p>Matthews- 3* freshman. Lowest rated of the true freshmen. </p><p>Ogbonda - 3* redshirt freshman. Lowest rated of all freshmen.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>This year (not doing covid eligibility just for ease of comparing experience with the prior list)</p><p>Sturdivant - Senior, 4* by rivals 3* by 247. 25 mpg last year. 7.6 ppg on 41%/33% and ~2.0 A/T ratio on 2.3 apg. </p><p>Smith - Junior 4* transfer from Mississippi state. ~20 mpg each year and about 5.5 ppg on average on 40%/28%. 2.5 rpg and a slightly plus A/T ratio although not what you would want from a PG.</p><p>Kelly - Soph 4* by rivals 3* by 247. ~15 mpg last year, 4.5 ppg, on 40.7%/34.5%. Really heated up the second half of the season after starting 4/30 I believe from behind the arc. IIRC he shot something like 47% on nearly 3 attempts per game the back half of the year. </p><p>Terry - Former unrated? Senior transfer from Gardner Webb. Averaged doublefigures each of the last two years at GW, shooting 48/45 from the field and 44/35 from three. Again, at Gardner Webb.</p><p>Maxwell - 3* junior with injury problems. Has scored 35 points in his two years here. 22 came in one game. Had a reputation as a skilled scorer. Needs to stay healthy. </p><p>Coleman - 4* top 75 type sophomore. Mr Basketball for state of Florida. 23.5 mpg last year, 6.2 ppg on 39/41% shooting. </p><p>Jalon Moore - 3* soph. Played sparingly last year, 8.5 mpg in just 13 games. </p><p> Meka - 3* RS soph, injured his freshman year. Similar to Moore in terms of playing time last year. </p><p>Franklin - 3* senior double transfer first from auburn and then South Alabama. Played 28 mpg last year scoring 12.2 on 65.5% from the floor and 7.8 rpg. Again. At South Alabama. </p><p>Bagatskis - Unrated freshman. I don't expect him to contribute much this year during games. I would expect a redshirt. I believe he finished out the year in Europe so didn't join the team until after the summer session had ended. </p><p>Howard - 3* Senior transfer. Played 25mpg last year averaging 6.5 and 5 on 56% shooting. Came on in the latter half averaging right at 10 ppg after coming back from a (I believe foot) injury. </p><p>Martynov - Unrated? freshman. Originally 2023 recruit who reclassified, although I believe I read agewise he fits in the 2022 class and that he got reclassed when he switched schools or something. Late bloomer </p><p></p><p>Comparing the two, it should be noted that we have 12 names this year vs 10 in year 1 and I left of Hill who I think could compare with Heyward at least. I don't expect much from Martynov or Bagatskis but If I included Ogbonda for year 1 I felt I should include them for next year. </p><p></p><p>Going by position group</p><p></p><p>pg - Heath and Moore vs Sturdivant and Smith? I'll take the latter straight up but even if you like Heath's passing compared to Sturdivant I'd say it is a wash as Sturdivant is a better scorer. Smith is much better than Moore though. </p><p></p><p>Wings - Okogie, Jackson, Heyward, Matthews vs Kelly, Coleman, Terry, Maxwell, Moore. Obviously the former group has the benefit of retrospect telling us what Okogie and Jackson would do but if we're going by prior to the season, Coleman compares favorably against Jackson, Kelly against Okogie, and Terry/Maxwell/Moore against Heyward and Matthews is no real contest. In many ways it's a similar dynamic with Coleman, Kelly, Maxwell, and Terry stepping into the vacuum created by Devoe and Ush leaving the way Okogie and Jackson did when Hunt and Smith. Whether it turns out as well as it did with Okogie and Jackson remains to be seen but I think going into the year we have a better line up to fill the spot than we did in year 1. </p><p></p><p>PF Stephens and Gueye vs Franklin and Meka. Seems about a wash. Both groups living on some hopes and will handle the issues differently. Franklin and Meka will be more defense/rebound/low post oriented vs Stephens being more a stretch 4. The main dynamic difference though is that this year we have the option of going smaller with 3 wings because of better depth that we really didn't in year 1. </p><p></p><p>C - Lammers/Ogbonda vs Howard/Martynov. If we're honest the latter two didn't factor in much/probably won't factor in much. I give the slight edge to Lammers due to playing only limited minutes as a soph vs Howard getting as much as he wanted. More room for Lammers to grow into the role, which he did beyond what anyone could have expected. </p><p></p><p>Overall, Pastner won ACC CotY in his first year for good reason despite going 8-10 in conference. I think if Pastner wins ACC CotY this year we likely are looking at a top 4 finish in conference. </p><p></p><p>It is hard, even in retrospect to see how that first year's team won games. Looking at it from the perspective of trying to predict how they would do that year is still mindboggling. This year's team, it's not hard to create a somewhat realistic scenario where we can finish in the top 4. Sturdy and Howard continue to develop nicely into solid ACC caliber starters at the 1 and 5 spots. Meanwhile Coleman and Kelly use the new opportunity to flourish by scoring a lot from 3 while Terry, Smith, Moore and Maxwell help create a spark off the bench when needed. Franklin and Meka hold down the 4 spot when we need to go bigger and we are able to go smaller effectively more. Not saying it will happen, or is even likely as it involves a lot of moving parts coming together, but at least I can picture it. Looking at the roster for year 1 I still can't picture how that team won as much as they did even having watched them do it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 905582, member: 2299"] Comparing this year's roster and his first years. Noting prior production and/or recruiting rankings. Year 1 - Okogie - freshman 3* by the recruiting services. Lammers - former 3* recruit. Junior. Had played 15 mpg previous year and got 3.6/4 with 1.3 blocks. Jackson - 4* top 100 type of recruit. Junior who had gotten about 15 mpg the prior two years averaging 5.4 and 4.7 ppg on sub 30/sub 40% shooting. Stephens - 3* senior who had gotten about 20 mpg the previous two years averaging 6/5 ppg respectively and 3/4 rpg respectively. Sub 40% from the field each year and a respectable 32% from the 3 as a junior. Heath - Former 2* transfer Senior had played about 18 mpg each of the previous two years. Good A/T ratio but low total numbers (2.7 and 2.8) and not great scoring, (4.3 and 2.7). Sub 30% 3 point shooter. Justin Moore - Freshman 3* rated lower than Okogie but higher than Matthews by 247. Heyward - redshirt senior. Think either former walk on or a lower rated recruit. Doesn't show up when looking at 247 historical classes. Either way, had played sparingly 12-16 minutes his first two years here, but didn't contribute much in the way of stats. Good hustle player. Gueye - 3* redshirt soph who had played in just 8 games his freshman year before redshirtting his soph. Matthews- 3* freshman. Lowest rated of the true freshmen. Ogbonda - 3* redshirt freshman. Lowest rated of all freshmen. This year (not doing covid eligibility just for ease of comparing experience with the prior list) Sturdivant - Senior, 4* by rivals 3* by 247. 25 mpg last year. 7.6 ppg on 41%/33% and ~2.0 A/T ratio on 2.3 apg. Smith - Junior 4* transfer from Mississippi state. ~20 mpg each year and about 5.5 ppg on average on 40%/28%. 2.5 rpg and a slightly plus A/T ratio although not what you would want from a PG. Kelly - Soph 4* by rivals 3* by 247. ~15 mpg last year, 4.5 ppg, on 40.7%/34.5%. Really heated up the second half of the season after starting 4/30 I believe from behind the arc. IIRC he shot something like 47% on nearly 3 attempts per game the back half of the year. Terry - Former unrated? Senior transfer from Gardner Webb. Averaged doublefigures each of the last two years at GW, shooting 48/45 from the field and 44/35 from three. Again, at Gardner Webb. Maxwell - 3* junior with injury problems. Has scored 35 points in his two years here. 22 came in one game. Had a reputation as a skilled scorer. Needs to stay healthy. Coleman - 4* top 75 type sophomore. Mr Basketball for state of Florida. 23.5 mpg last year, 6.2 ppg on 39/41% shooting. Jalon Moore - 3* soph. Played sparingly last year, 8.5 mpg in just 13 games. Meka - 3* RS soph, injured his freshman year. Similar to Moore in terms of playing time last year. Franklin - 3* senior double transfer first from auburn and then South Alabama. Played 28 mpg last year scoring 12.2 on 65.5% from the floor and 7.8 rpg. Again. At South Alabama. Bagatskis - Unrated freshman. I don't expect him to contribute much this year during games. I would expect a redshirt. I believe he finished out the year in Europe so didn't join the team until after the summer session had ended. Howard - 3* Senior transfer. Played 25mpg last year averaging 6.5 and 5 on 56% shooting. Came on in the latter half averaging right at 10 ppg after coming back from a (I believe foot) injury. Martynov - Unrated? freshman. Originally 2023 recruit who reclassified, although I believe I read agewise he fits in the 2022 class and that he got reclassed when he switched schools or something. Late bloomer Comparing the two, it should be noted that we have 12 names this year vs 10 in year 1 and I left of Hill who I think could compare with Heyward at least. I don't expect much from Martynov or Bagatskis but If I included Ogbonda for year 1 I felt I should include them for next year. Going by position group pg - Heath and Moore vs Sturdivant and Smith? I'll take the latter straight up but even if you like Heath's passing compared to Sturdivant I'd say it is a wash as Sturdivant is a better scorer. Smith is much better than Moore though. Wings - Okogie, Jackson, Heyward, Matthews vs Kelly, Coleman, Terry, Maxwell, Moore. Obviously the former group has the benefit of retrospect telling us what Okogie and Jackson would do but if we're going by prior to the season, Coleman compares favorably against Jackson, Kelly against Okogie, and Terry/Maxwell/Moore against Heyward and Matthews is no real contest. In many ways it's a similar dynamic with Coleman, Kelly, Maxwell, and Terry stepping into the vacuum created by Devoe and Ush leaving the way Okogie and Jackson did when Hunt and Smith. Whether it turns out as well as it did with Okogie and Jackson remains to be seen but I think going into the year we have a better line up to fill the spot than we did in year 1. PF Stephens and Gueye vs Franklin and Meka. Seems about a wash. Both groups living on some hopes and will handle the issues differently. Franklin and Meka will be more defense/rebound/low post oriented vs Stephens being more a stretch 4. The main dynamic difference though is that this year we have the option of going smaller with 3 wings because of better depth that we really didn't in year 1. C - Lammers/Ogbonda vs Howard/Martynov. If we're honest the latter two didn't factor in much/probably won't factor in much. I give the slight edge to Lammers due to playing only limited minutes as a soph vs Howard getting as much as he wanted. More room for Lammers to grow into the role, which he did beyond what anyone could have expected. Overall, Pastner won ACC CotY in his first year for good reason despite going 8-10 in conference. I think if Pastner wins ACC CotY this year we likely are looking at a top 4 finish in conference. It is hard, even in retrospect to see how that first year's team won games. Looking at it from the perspective of trying to predict how they would do that year is still mindboggling. This year's team, it's not hard to create a somewhat realistic scenario where we can finish in the top 4. Sturdy and Howard continue to develop nicely into solid ACC caliber starters at the 1 and 5 spots. Meanwhile Coleman and Kelly use the new opportunity to flourish by scoring a lot from 3 while Terry, Smith, Moore and Maxwell help create a spark off the bench when needed. Franklin and Meka hold down the 4 spot when we need to go bigger and we are able to go smaller effectively more. Not saying it will happen, or is even likely as it involves a lot of moving parts coming together, but at least I can picture it. Looking at the roster for year 1 I still can't picture how that team won as much as they did even having watched them do it. [/QUOTE]
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