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<blockquote data-quote="vamosjackets" data-source="post: 640945" data-attributes="member: 216"><p>So, here are what I read as your arguments:</p><p>1. CPJ had 11 straight years of terrible D. CNW had 1 bad year of D (in year 1) and 8 straight years of great D afterward. So, you choose to go with calling a prediction of better D under CNW from his second year forward "statistically anomalous". </p><p>Here's the thing. The other DC's CPJ was allowed (and was given the money) to hire put up numbers that weren't statistically anomalous to their own records as DC's. So, 11 straight years of terrible D would be somewhat expected from the resources we put into it. However, CPJ didn't accept the status quo. Rather he found a guy he COULD afford that was also the best hire possible from an objective, stats-based standpoint. If CNW had continued to have bad defenses at GT after the first year, that would seem to be more "statistically anomalous" than your argument. </p><p></p><p>2. You say that CPJ is loyal to the elder statesman at QB even if someone else is better. </p><p>This is complete rubbish. In fact, our last QB, Taquan Marshall was at best 3rd string going into the Spring. It was fully expected that Matthew Jordan would win the job. But, instead, an AB moves positions and wins the job ... because he was the best QB and won the job in practice. He wasn't the best QB we ever had, but it was obvious he was the best QB we had at the time, which is why CPJ chose him. </p><p></p><p>3. You assume here and in a later post we would be stuck in a malaise of mediocrity with 6-7 win seasons with CPJ or another option coach. </p><p>The historical facts don't support that assumption at all either. We certainly didn't have a malaise of mediocrity with those types of seasons. Here are our win totals over the 11 years: 9, 11, 6, 8, 7, 7, 11, 3, 9, 5, 7. I don't see a predictable pattern, do you? What I do see is a team who was usually good and could be very (even ridiculously) good with just a couple of key pieces. I don't see how you could predict 7-win seasons from that previous record. If we get a couple of key pieces ... like a Graham/Yates/Knight QB, a Malachi Carter WR, a Kenny Cooper/Jahaziel Lee/Parker Braun/Connor Hansen/Zach Quinney OL, a 3-headed JP Mason/Jerry Howard/Kirvonte Benson BB, and a Dontae Smith/Tobias Oliver/Omahri Jarrett/Christian Malloy AB ... that's a squad that could be as good as any we've had on offense. I think there's a good chance we're looking at 9-11 wins again. And, that's with the offense carrying everything ... Now, imagine that with a defense that is top 20. CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT??? We're talking a team that can win the Coastal, beat Ugag at its pinnacle, and compete with Clemson (ON OUR BUDGET!).</p><p></p><p>Now, our only hope of that kind of team (one where we are competitive on the national stage) is that we have to recruit top 5 classes AND hope that our coaches are at least as good as the other top 10 programs (who pour in LOT more money, have way bigger stadiums, and way less academic rigor).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="vamosjackets, post: 640945, member: 216"] So, here are what I read as your arguments: 1. CPJ had 11 straight years of terrible D. CNW had 1 bad year of D (in year 1) and 8 straight years of great D afterward. So, you choose to go with calling a prediction of better D under CNW from his second year forward "statistically anomalous". Here's the thing. The other DC's CPJ was allowed (and was given the money) to hire put up numbers that weren't statistically anomalous to their own records as DC's. So, 11 straight years of terrible D would be somewhat expected from the resources we put into it. However, CPJ didn't accept the status quo. Rather he found a guy he COULD afford that was also the best hire possible from an objective, stats-based standpoint. If CNW had continued to have bad defenses at GT after the first year, that would seem to be more "statistically anomalous" than your argument. 2. You say that CPJ is loyal to the elder statesman at QB even if someone else is better. This is complete rubbish. In fact, our last QB, Taquan Marshall was at best 3rd string going into the Spring. It was fully expected that Matthew Jordan would win the job. But, instead, an AB moves positions and wins the job ... because he was the best QB and won the job in practice. He wasn't the best QB we ever had, but it was obvious he was the best QB we had at the time, which is why CPJ chose him. 3. You assume here and in a later post we would be stuck in a malaise of mediocrity with 6-7 win seasons with CPJ or another option coach. The historical facts don't support that assumption at all either. We certainly didn't have a malaise of mediocrity with those types of seasons. Here are our win totals over the 11 years: 9, 11, 6, 8, 7, 7, 11, 3, 9, 5, 7. I don't see a predictable pattern, do you? What I do see is a team who was usually good and could be very (even ridiculously) good with just a couple of key pieces. I don't see how you could predict 7-win seasons from that previous record. If we get a couple of key pieces ... like a Graham/Yates/Knight QB, a Malachi Carter WR, a Kenny Cooper/Jahaziel Lee/Parker Braun/Connor Hansen/Zach Quinney OL, a 3-headed JP Mason/Jerry Howard/Kirvonte Benson BB, and a Dontae Smith/Tobias Oliver/Omahri Jarrett/Christian Malloy AB ... that's a squad that could be as good as any we've had on offense. I think there's a good chance we're looking at 9-11 wins again. And, that's with the offense carrying everything ... Now, imagine that with a defense that is top 20. CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT??? We're talking a team that can win the Coastal, beat Ugag at its pinnacle, and compete with Clemson (ON OUR BUDGET!). Now, our only hope of that kind of team (one where we are competitive on the national stage) is that we have to recruit top 5 classes AND hope that our coaches are at least as good as the other top 10 programs (who pour in LOT more money, have way bigger stadiums, and way less academic rigor). [/QUOTE]
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