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UNC Preview Thread -- Who is UNC?
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 825751" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>Let's start by looking at their schedule and results:</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Opponent</td><td>Result</td></tr><tr><td>Sept-3 Virginia Tech (away)</td><td>Lost 17-10</td></tr><tr><td>Sept-10 Georgia State (home)</td><td>Won 59-17</td></tr><tr><td>Sept-17 UVA (home)</td><td>Won 59-39</td></tr></table><p></p><p>So, are they warmed up on offense and a team that scores 59 points per game, or are they more like the team that played Virginia Tech? Are they the defense that gives up 17 points, or the team that gives up 39? Are their results more about UNC, or are they about their opponents and what they did?</p><p></p><p>It's early in the season, and we only have three games as a sample size. <a href="https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei/" target="_blank">Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings</a> have UNC 6th in offensive efficiency and 59th in defensive efficiency. In contrast, we're 86th in offense and 70th in defense. I'm taking that with a grain of salt after only three games, though. Either last year's numbers matter, and UNC should be heavily favored, or we're more like the team that played last Saturday and we're turning a new page. We'll find out on Saturday, but for right now, I'm not putting a lot of trust in the computer models. </p><p></p><p>UNC has three players on the <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2021-preseason-all-acc-football-team-clemson-dominates-unc-qb-sam-howell-takes-player-of-the-year-honor" target="_blank">All-ACC first team</a>:</p><p>Sam Howell (QB)</p><p><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/players/playerpage/2965556/joshua-ezeudu" target="_blank">Joshua Ezeudu</a> (Guard)</p><p>Tony Grimes (CB)</p><p></p><p>So far this season, our defense is ranked 6th in the ACC and UNCs is ranked 9th. They're giving up a touchdown more than us, about 5 more first downs a game, and a lot more yardage. (I did what I could with the formatting)</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Pass</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Rush</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Total</th><th></th><th></th><th>Firs</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Pena</th><th></th><th>Turn</th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Rk</td><td>School</td><td>G</td><td>Pts</td><td>Cmp</td><td>Att</td><td>Pct</td><td>Yds</td><td>TD</td><td>Att</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TD</td><td>Plays</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>Pass</td><td>Rush</td><td>Pen</td><td>Tot</td><td>No.</td><td>Yds</td><td>Fum</td><td>Int</td><td>TO</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Clemson</td><td>3</td><td>7.0</td><td>17.3</td><td>30.0</td><td>57.8</td><td>156.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>34.7</td><td>110.0</td><td>3.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>64.7</td><td>266.7</td><td>4.1</td><td>7.3</td><td>6.0</td><td>1.7</td><td>14.7</td><td>10.0</td><td>75.7</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.0</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>3</td><td>17.0</td><td>19.3</td><td>33.3</td><td>58.0</td><td>228.0</td><td>1.7</td><td>33.0</td><td>128.3</td><td>3.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>66.3</td><td>356.3</td><td>5.4</td><td>9.3</td><td>8.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>18.7</td><td>6.7</td><td>53.7</td><td>0.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>2.0</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>3</td><td>17.7</td><td>12.3</td><td>20.7</td><td>59.7</td><td>124.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>42.0</td><td>161.3</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.3</td><td>62.7</td><td>285.7</td><td>4.6</td><td>5.7</td><td>8.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>15.7</td><td>7.7</td><td>59.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.7</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Duke</td><td>3</td><td>23.7</td><td>16.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>55.6</td><td>213.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>40.0</td><td>173.0</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>70.0</td><td>386.3</td><td>5.5</td><td>10.7</td><td>7.3</td><td>2.3</td><td>20.3</td><td>6.7</td><td>55.0</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>1.7</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>3</td><td>24.3</td><td>22.0</td><td>35.3</td><td>62.3</td><td>270.7</td><td>1.7</td><td>36.7</td><td>109.7</td><td>3.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>72.0</td><td>380.3</td><td>5.3</td><td>11.3</td><td>7.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>20.0</td><td>5.3</td><td>55.3</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>1.7</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Virginia</td><td>3</td><td>24.3</td><td>16.0</td><td>27.3</td><td>58.5</td><td>205.7</td><td>2.0</td><td>37.0</td><td>200.7</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>64.3</td><td>406.3</td><td>6.3</td><td>8.7</td><td>10.0</td><td>3.3</td><td>22.0</td><td>6.7</td><td>64.7</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.0</td></tr></table><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/acc/2021-team-defense.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#defense" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 9/21/2021.</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/acc/2021-team-defense.html[/URL]</p><p></p><p>It could be because of their tempo, their opponents also get additional possessions. UNC is seeing 72 plays a game, and we're just seeing 62.7, but I think mostly we're better at getting off the field. </p><p></p><p>So far on the season, UNC has</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">1 interception (0 yards, no TD)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">5 passes disrupted</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">3 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">5 sacks</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 tackles for loss</li> </ul><p>Georgia Tech has</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2 Interceptions (0 yards)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2 passes disrupted</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">5 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2 sacks</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 tackles for loss</li> </ul><p>Let's get a reference for UNC. Are they anywhere close to Clemson's defense?</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2 interceptions for 39 yards</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">10 passes disrupted</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">1 forced fumble and 0 recoveries</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">6 sacks</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">22 tackles for loss</li> </ul><p>So, their defense is exploitable, but can create some havoc in the backfield, which is rough for us. However, this Saturday--at first glance--looks like our offense should have a better time. </p><p></p><p>We can look at offense later.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 825751, member: 282"] Let's start by looking at their schedule and results: [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Opponent[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sept-3 Virginia Tech (away)[/TD] [TD]Lost 17-10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sept-10 Georgia State (home)[/TD] [TD]Won 59-17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sept-17 UVA (home)[/TD] [TD]Won 59-39[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So, are they warmed up on offense and a team that scores 59 points per game, or are they more like the team that played Virginia Tech? Are they the defense that gives up 17 points, or the team that gives up 39? Are their results more about UNC, or are they about their opponents and what they did? It's early in the season, and we only have three games as a sample size. [URL='https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei/']Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings[/URL] have UNC 6th in offensive efficiency and 59th in defensive efficiency. In contrast, we're 86th in offense and 70th in defense. I'm taking that with a grain of salt after only three games, though. Either last year's numbers matter, and UNC should be heavily favored, or we're more like the team that played last Saturday and we're turning a new page. We'll find out on Saturday, but for right now, I'm not putting a lot of trust in the computer models. UNC has three players on the [URL='https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2021-preseason-all-acc-football-team-clemson-dominates-unc-qb-sam-howell-takes-player-of-the-year-honor']All-ACC first team[/URL]: Sam Howell (QB) [URL='https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/players/playerpage/2965556/joshua-ezeudu']Joshua Ezeudu[/URL] (Guard) Tony Grimes (CB) So far this season, our defense is ranked 6th in the ACC and UNCs is ranked 9th. They're giving up a touchdown more than us, about 5 more first downs a game, and a lot more yardage. (I did what I could with the formatting) [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pass[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Rush[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Total[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Firs[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pena[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Turn[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rk[/TD] [TD]School[/TD] [TD]G[/TD] [TD]Pts[/TD] [TD]Cmp[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Plays[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]Pass[/TD] [TD]Rush[/TD] [TD]Pen[/TD] [TD]Tot[/TD] [TD]No.[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Fum[/TD] [TD]Int[/TD] [TD]TO[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Clemson[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]7.0[/TD] [TD]17.3[/TD] [TD]30.0[/TD] [TD]57.8[/TD] [TD]156.7[/TD] [TD]0.0[/TD] [TD]34.7[/TD] [TD]110.0[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]0.0[/TD] [TD]64.7[/TD] [TD]266.7[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [TD]7.3[/TD] [TD]6.0[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]14.7[/TD] [TD]10.0[/TD] [TD]75.7[/TD] [TD]0.3[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Virginia Tech[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]17.0[/TD] [TD]19.3[/TD] [TD]33.3[/TD] [TD]58.0[/TD] [TD]228.0[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]33.0[/TD] [TD]128.3[/TD] [TD]3.9[/TD] [TD]0.3[/TD] [TD]66.3[/TD] [TD]356.3[/TD] [TD]5.4[/TD] [TD]9.3[/TD] [TD]8.3[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]18.7[/TD] [TD]6.7[/TD] [TD]53.7[/TD] [TD]0.3[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]2.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Georgia Tech[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]17.7[/TD] [TD]12.3[/TD] [TD]20.7[/TD] [TD]59.7[/TD] [TD]124.3[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]42.0[/TD] [TD]161.3[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]62.7[/TD] [TD]285.7[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]8.7[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]15.7[/TD] [TD]7.7[/TD] [TD]59.3[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Duke[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]23.7[/TD] [TD]16.7[/TD] [TD]30.0[/TD] [TD]55.6[/TD] [TD]213.3[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]40.0[/TD] [TD]173.0[/TD] [TD]4.3[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]70.0[/TD] [TD]386.3[/TD] [TD]5.5[/TD] [TD]10.7[/TD] [TD]7.3[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]20.3[/TD] [TD]6.7[/TD] [TD]55.0[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]North Carolina[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]24.3[/TD] [TD]22.0[/TD] [TD]35.3[/TD] [TD]62.3[/TD] [TD]270.7[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]36.7[/TD] [TD]109.7[/TD] [TD]3.0[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]72.0[/TD] [TD]380.3[/TD] [TD]5.3[/TD] [TD]11.3[/TD] [TD]7.3[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]20.0[/TD] [TD]5.3[/TD] [TD]55.3[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Virginia[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]24.3[/TD] [TD]16.0[/TD] [TD]27.3[/TD] [TD]58.5[/TD] [TD]205.7[/TD] [TD]2.0[/TD] [TD]37.0[/TD] [TD]200.7[/TD] [TD]5.4[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]64.3[/TD] [TD]406.3[/TD] [TD]6.3[/TD] [TD]8.7[/TD] [TD]10.0[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [TD]22.0[/TD] [TD]6.7[/TD] [TD]64.7[/TD] [TD]0.3[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/acc/2021-team-defense.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#defense']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 9/21/2021. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/acc/2021-team-defense.html[/URL] It could be because of their tempo, their opponents also get additional possessions. UNC is seeing 72 plays a game, and we're just seeing 62.7, but I think mostly we're better at getting off the field. So far on the season, UNC has [LIST] [*]1 interception (0 yards, no TD) [*]5 passes disrupted [*]3 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery [*]5 sacks [*]17 tackles for loss [/LIST] Georgia Tech has [LIST] [*]2 Interceptions (0 yards) [*]2 passes disrupted [*]5 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries [*]2 sacks [*]15 tackles for loss [/LIST] Let's get a reference for UNC. Are they anywhere close to Clemson's defense? [LIST] [*]2 interceptions for 39 yards [*]10 passes disrupted [*]1 forced fumble and 0 recoveries [*]6 sacks [*]22 tackles for loss [/LIST] So, their defense is exploitable, but can create some havoc in the backfield, which is rough for us. However, this Saturday--at first glance--looks like our offense should have a better time. We can look at offense later. [/QUOTE]
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