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<blockquote data-quote="ugacdawg" data-source="post: 827386" data-attributes="member: 4724"><p>I think when Bill Connelly says 'preseason projections' he's talking about his own SP+ formula's projections which does use historical results, but not the AP/Coaches poll, etc. The reason there is a delayed effect is so the system doesn't yoyo for crazy upsets.</p><p></p><p>Think of it as if these two teams happened to play again this week, Vegas isn't going to put a GT -23 line on that game. Instead they'll adjust the line from something like UNC -13 to UNC -10. Because there's SO much other evidence UNC is the better team.</p><p></p><p>However, over time, GT could change that perspective that teaches the computer that last week's win was not the anomaly. At least that's how I understand it. SP+ is intended to project outcomes.</p><p></p><p>Probably a better indicator of actual performance THIS YEAR exclusively is going to be the FEI efficiency numbers which are opponent-adjusted and considers '<a href="http://bcftoys.com/notes#garbage" target="_blank">non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games</a>' in actual 2021 games.</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overall/2021[/URL]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ugacdawg, post: 827386, member: 4724"] I think when Bill Connelly says 'preseason projections' he's talking about his own SP+ formula's projections which does use historical results, but not the AP/Coaches poll, etc. The reason there is a delayed effect is so the system doesn't yoyo for crazy upsets. Think of it as if these two teams happened to play again this week, Vegas isn't going to put a GT -23 line on that game. Instead they'll adjust the line from something like UNC -13 to UNC -10. Because there's SO much other evidence UNC is the better team. However, over time, GT could change that perspective that teaches the computer that last week's win was not the anomaly. At least that's how I understand it. SP+ is intended to project outcomes. Probably a better indicator of actual performance THIS YEAR exclusively is going to be the FEI efficiency numbers which are opponent-adjusted and considers '[URL='http://bcftoys.com/notes#garbage']non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games[/URL]' in actual 2021 games. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overall/2021[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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