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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 829641" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>Here's another view into "what happened" (<a href="https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282649" target="_blank">https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282649</a>). It's our Win% chart. 10 plays into the game, Jeff Sims got intercepted, right around the peak around 88 seconds. Our win% went from 44% to 33% on that play (it's right around the cursive "P" in the Pitt logo). On the 17th play, Pitt scores a TD (between the "i" and the first "t" in the Pitt logo). A few plays later, we have the pick-6, and we've spotted Pitt a 14 point lead, and they can go really aggressive in blitzing against us. We claw back bit by bit, but by 21-7 at the end of the first we're back to where we were before. We need unanswered points and we're not getting them.</p><p>[ATTACH=full]11321[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Another view is here--we never overcame our early mistakes. Pitt is the top line, and GT is the bottom in Expected Points. Big mistakes need a lot of consistency to overcome, and we kept hurting ourselves through the game. Graphically, this is a "Pitt played a good and efficient game, and we were the opposite"</p><p>[ATTACH=full]11322[/ATTACH]</p><p>Here are some numbers from the defensive side.</p><p>Stop rate is the percentage of plays a defense gets stops (keeping the other team behind the chains or sticks). <strong>Stops</strong>: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. In general, "plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions. The exception is when discussing pass defense data from the FO game charting project, in which case "plays" refers to all charted passes with the given player as the listed defender.</p><p>Pitt kept us behind the chains about twice as much as they kept us behind the chains. One of Pitt's sacks may not have even been counted, but was the 33 yard INT of Sims and the second biggest plays of the game.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Defensive</th><th>Pitt</th><th>GT</th></tr><tr><td>Scrimmage Plays</td><td>61</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://theathletic.com/2419632/2021/03/02/college-football-defense-rankings-stop-rate/" target="_blank">Stop Rate</a></td><td>48%</td><td>26%</td></tr><tr><td>Havoc Plays Created</td><td><strong>12 (20%)</strong></td><td>2 (3%)</td></tr><tr><td> Passing</td><td><strong>5 (15%)</strong></td><td>1 (3%)</td></tr><tr><td> Rushing</td><td><strong>7 (25%)</strong></td><td>1 (3%)</td></tr><tr><td>TFLs Generated</td><td>2</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td> Passing</td><td>3</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td> Rushing</td><td>7</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Sacks Generated</td><td>2 (6%)</td><td>1 (3%)</td></tr><tr><td>Passes Defensed</td><td>0</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Interceptions</td><td><strong>2</strong></td><td>0</td></tr></table><p></p><p>Those are defensive stats. Pitt ran 15 plays more than we did.</p><p></p><p>In our rushing game, we were stuffed 29% of the time, stopped for < 2 yards about half the time, and had good runs about 43% of the time. The OL Line Yards are an attempt to measure how much the OL contributed to yardage vs. the RB, and that number is really low. The "Highlight Yards" are the yards attributed to the RB, and with good blocking, that's enough to go crazy. We only got 73 rushing yards for the game--they stuffed us.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Rushing</th><th>Pitt</th><th>GT</th></tr><tr><td>Scrimmage Plays</td><td>76</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Rushes</td><td>40 (53%)</td><td>28 (46%)</td></tr><tr><td> Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2)</td><td>1 (2%)</td><td>2 (7%)</td></tr><tr><td> Successful Power Runs (Rate)</td><td>1 (100%)</td><td>1 (50%)</td></tr><tr><td> Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0)</td><td>5 (12%)</td><td>8 (29%)</td></tr><tr><td> Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2)</td><td>14 (35%)</td><td>13 (46%)</td></tr><tr><td> Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4)</td><td>22 (55%)</td><td>12 (43%)</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/2/2/16963820/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary" target="_blank">OL Line Yards</a></td><td>89.2</td><td>24.7</td></tr><tr><td> Per Carry</td><td>2.23</td><td>0.88</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/2/2/16963820/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary" target="_blank">Highlight Yards</a></td><td>98</td><td>64.5</td></tr><tr><td> Per Rush Opportunity</td><td>4.45</td><td>5.38</td></tr></table><p></p><p>That's how we got some of these 3rd and 4th down numbers (per <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401282649" target="_blank">ESPN</a>)</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Matchup</th><th>Pitt</th><th>GT</th></tr><tr><td>1st Downs</td><td>27</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>3rd down efficiency</td><td>6-13</td><td>2-11</td></tr><tr><td>4th down efficiency</td><td>2-2</td><td>1-4</td></tr><tr><td>Total Yards</td><td>580</td><td>432</td></tr><tr><td>Passing</td><td>399</td><td>359</td></tr><tr><td>Comp-Att</td><td>24-37</td><td>24-33</td></tr><tr><td>Yards per pass</td><td>10.8</td><td>10.9</td></tr><tr><td>Interceptions thrown</td><td>0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Rushing</td><td>181</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Rushing Attempts</td><td>41</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Yards per rush</td><td>4.4</td><td>2.4</td></tr><tr><td>Penalties</td><td>6-65</td><td>5-55</td></tr><tr><td>Turnovers</td><td>0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Fumbles lost</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Interceptions thrown</td><td>0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Possession</td><td>34:40</td><td>25:20</td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 829641, member: 282"] Here's another view into "what happened" ([URL]https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282649[/URL]). It's our Win% chart. 10 plays into the game, Jeff Sims got intercepted, right around the peak around 88 seconds. Our win% went from 44% to 33% on that play (it's right around the cursive "P" in the Pitt logo). On the 17th play, Pitt scores a TD (between the "i" and the first "t" in the Pitt logo). A few plays later, we have the pick-6, and we've spotted Pitt a 14 point lead, and they can go really aggressive in blitzing against us. We claw back bit by bit, but by 21-7 at the end of the first we're back to where we were before. We need unanswered points and we're not getting them. [ATTACH type="full" alt="game-wp-401282649.png"]11321[/ATTACH] Another view is here--we never overcame our early mistakes. Pitt is the top line, and GT is the bottom in Expected Points. Big mistakes need a lot of consistency to overcome, and we kept hurting ourselves through the game. Graphically, this is a "Pitt played a good and efficient game, and we were the opposite" [ATTACH type="full" alt="game-ep-401282649.png"]11322[/ATTACH] Here are some numbers from the defensive side. Stop rate is the percentage of plays a defense gets stops (keeping the other team behind the chains or sticks). [B]Stops[/B]: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. In general, "plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions. The exception is when discussing pass defense data from the FO game charting project, in which case "plays" refers to all charted passes with the given player as the listed defender. Pitt kept us behind the chains about twice as much as they kept us behind the chains. One of Pitt's sacks may not have even been counted, but was the 33 yard INT of Sims and the second biggest plays of the game. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Defensive[/TH] [TH]Pitt[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scrimmage Plays[/TD] [TD]61[/TD] [TD]76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][URL='https://theathletic.com/2419632/2021/03/02/college-football-defense-rankings-stop-rate/']Stop Rate[/URL][/TD] [TD]48%[/TD] [TD]26%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Havoc Plays Created[/TD] [TD][B]12 (20%)[/B][/TD] [TD]2 (3%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Passing[/TD] [TD][B]5 (15%)[/B][/TD] [TD]1 (3%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Rushing[/TD] [TD][B]7 (25%)[/B][/TD] [TD]1 (3%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TFLs Generated[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Passing[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Rushing[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sacks Generated[/TD] [TD]2 (6%)[/TD] [TD]1 (3%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passes Defensed[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Interceptions[/TD] [TD][B]2[/B][/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Those are defensive stats. Pitt ran 15 plays more than we did. In our rushing game, we were stuffed 29% of the time, stopped for < 2 yards about half the time, and had good runs about 43% of the time. The OL Line Yards are an attempt to measure how much the OL contributed to yardage vs. the RB, and that number is really low. The "Highlight Yards" are the yards attributed to the RB, and with good blocking, that's enough to go crazy. We only got 73 rushing yards for the game--they stuffed us. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Rushing[/TH] [TH]Pitt[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scrimmage Plays[/TD] [TD]76[/TD] [TD]61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rushes[/TD] [TD]40 (53%)[/TD] [TD]28 (46%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2)[/TD] [TD]1 (2%)[/TD] [TD]2 (7%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Successful Power Runs (Rate)[/TD] [TD]1 (100%)[/TD] [TD]1 (50%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0)[/TD] [TD]5 (12%)[/TD] [TD]8 (29%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2)[/TD] [TD]14 (35%)[/TD] [TD]13 (46%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4)[/TD] [TD]22 (55%)[/TD] [TD]12 (43%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][URL='https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/2/2/16963820/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary']OL Line Yards[/URL][/TD] [TD]89.2[/TD] [TD]24.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Per Carry[/TD] [TD]2.23[/TD] [TD]0.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][URL='https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/2/2/16963820/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary']Highlight Yards[/URL][/TD] [TD]98[/TD] [TD]64.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Per Rush Opportunity[/TD] [TD]4.45[/TD] [TD]5.38[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That's how we got some of these 3rd and 4th down numbers (per [URL='https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401282649']ESPN[/URL]) [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Matchup[/TH] [TH]Pitt[/TH] [TH]GT[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1st Downs[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3rd down efficiency[/TD] [TD]6-13[/TD] [TD]2-11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4th down efficiency[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [TD]1-4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Yards[/TD] [TD]580[/TD] [TD]432[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passing[/TD] [TD]399[/TD] [TD]359[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Comp-Att[/TD] [TD]24-37[/TD] [TD]24-33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards per pass[/TD] [TD]10.8[/TD] [TD]10.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rushing[/TD] [TD]181[/TD] [TD]73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rushing Attempts[/TD] [TD]41[/TD] [TD]31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards per rush[/TD] [TD]4.4[/TD] [TD]2.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Penalties[/TD] [TD]6-65[/TD] [TD]5-55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turnovers[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fumbles lost[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Possession[/TD] [TD]34:40[/TD] [TD]25:20[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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