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The 1-4 streaks against Duke/VT...
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<blockquote data-quote="takethepoints" data-source="post: 479329" data-attributes="member: 265"><p>I've recommended one of my favorite books - Duncan Watts<em>, Everything Is Obvious Once You Know the Answer: How Common Sense Fails Us</em> - here before. He has a discussion in the book on our tendency to ascribe success to individual effort. The problem comes from the normal human tendency to see an explanation for everything. Why do some groups have hit records or some businesses succeed? Our automatic response is that there is something special about the group or the business owner. In fact, you can usually put this down to sheer bum luck. And once the luck strikes you get the Matthew Effect ("For to those who have, more will be given and they will have an abundance, but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away" Matthew 25:29) will ensure that those in top will usually continue there, provided the creek don't rise.</p><p></p><p>I think that's what's at work here. Consider Coach's overall record against Duke (7 - 3) and VT (4 - 6). Pretty good against Duke except for the last 4 years, pretty bad against VT except for the last 4 years. Does this signal something about Cutliffe and Fuentes? Maybe so, maybe not. Usually the scores are pretty close. More likely it's due to luck during games between fairly even teams.</p><p></p><p>That <em>doesn't</em> mean that I think we shouldn't shore up our football program; I want to get to the point where we win regularly because we're "those who have", not because we are doing ok and luck is on our side.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="takethepoints, post: 479329, member: 265"] I've recommended one of my favorite books - Duncan Watts[I], Everything Is Obvious Once You Know the Answer: How Common Sense Fails Us[/I] - here before. He has a discussion in the book on our tendency to ascribe success to individual effort. The problem comes from the normal human tendency to see an explanation for everything. Why do some groups have hit records or some businesses succeed? Our automatic response is that there is something special about the group or the business owner. In fact, you can usually put this down to sheer bum luck. And once the luck strikes you get the Matthew Effect ("For to those who have, more will be given and they will have an abundance, but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away" Matthew 25:29) will ensure that those in top will usually continue there, provided the creek don't rise. I think that's what's at work here. Consider Coach's overall record against Duke (7 - 3) and VT (4 - 6). Pretty good against Duke except for the last 4 years, pretty bad against VT except for the last 4 years. Does this signal something about Cutliffe and Fuentes? Maybe so, maybe not. Usually the scores are pretty close. More likely it's due to luck during games between fairly even teams. That [I]doesn't[/I] mean that I think we shouldn't shore up our football program; I want to get to the point where we win regularly because we're "those who have", not because we are doing ok and luck is on our side. [/QUOTE]
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