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<blockquote data-quote="ibeattetris" data-source="post: 968344" data-attributes="member: 1175"><p>I agree with a lot of what you said. I don't think there is a single "perfect" stat, and it is why a combination of these stats are used to determine the "best" team in the algorithms. </p><p></p><p> In a vacuum the drive would be a failure, but I understand the fact that the drive doesn't exist in a vacuum. If a team drives from the 25-> opposing 30 they had to have made at least one first down along the way. At that point the defense did have to defend a drive in plus territory and succeeded. The entire drive was not a success, but once you are in a situation where a drive has gone into plus territory, you may as well celebrate giving up 3 vs 7.</p><p></p><p></p><p>PPD is my favorite go-to as it captures the gist of what teams are trying to do. Even in my examples above though with the 2014 GT team, I put three pretty different games with different OAY, but all of them were right around 4.0 PPD. The Pitt game despite having better OAY and best PPD was probably the least impressive of the three games because the average starting field position was almost 20 yards better than the other two games. The ODE stat does its best to capture the scoring efficiency of the team with starting field position in the mix.</p><p></p><p>Regarding "It seems to me that a <em>successful</em> "bend but don't break" defensive scheme would normally have a relatively high DAY", I would posit there is no successful bend but don't break defense. Of the top 5 PPD defenses, only Ohio State is not n the top 5 of DAY (13th). Of the top 10 PPD, Oklahoma is the outlier with a 45th rank DAY. Their defensive turnover rate is at 20% and third rank. Oklahoma will either continue to live by the turnover, or we will see their defense begin to worsen is my guess.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ibeattetris, post: 968344, member: 1175"] I agree with a lot of what you said. I don't think there is a single "perfect" stat, and it is why a combination of these stats are used to determine the "best" team in the algorithms. In a vacuum the drive would be a failure, but I understand the fact that the drive doesn't exist in a vacuum. If a team drives from the 25-> opposing 30 they had to have made at least one first down along the way. At that point the defense did have to defend a drive in plus territory and succeeded. The entire drive was not a success, but once you are in a situation where a drive has gone into plus territory, you may as well celebrate giving up 3 vs 7. PPD is my favorite go-to as it captures the gist of what teams are trying to do. Even in my examples above though with the 2014 GT team, I put three pretty different games with different OAY, but all of them were right around 4.0 PPD. The Pitt game despite having better OAY and best PPD was probably the least impressive of the three games because the average starting field position was almost 20 yards better than the other two games. The ODE stat does its best to capture the scoring efficiency of the team with starting field position in the mix. Regarding "It seems to me that a [I]successful[/I] "bend but don't break" defensive scheme would normally have a relatively high DAY", I would posit there is no successful bend but don't break defense. Of the top 5 PPD defenses, only Ohio State is not n the top 5 of DAY (13th). Of the top 10 PPD, Oklahoma is the outlier with a 45th rank DAY. Their defensive turnover rate is at 20% and third rank. Oklahoma will either continue to live by the turnover, or we will see their defense begin to worsen is my guess. [/QUOTE]
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