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<blockquote data-quote="GetYourBuzzOn" data-source="post: 963497" data-attributes="member: 6610"><p>Thanks [USER=282]@slugboy[/USER] - my $.02 here-</p><p></p><p>To echo the initial point, these rankings are not your traditional rankings, which should reflect a team's current season's resume. Instead, they are power rankings and try to predict who would win on a neutral site. The formula is simply (Power Rank Home Team) + (Home Field Adv Home Team) - (Power Rank Away Team) = Margin of Victory. </p><p></p><p>The power rankings all take into account priors, but weight them or phase them out differently. A big point of discussion this year among those who create the models is how quickly to phase out priors with teams that undergo drastic turnover such as Colorado or Texas State. Or, how quickly to phase out priors due to coaching staff turnover- like our beloved Jackets. (For the record I think all models are a bit low on GT, and the market money that we have taken every week so far backs that opinion up)</p><p></p><p>For my handicapping, I use a blend of three power rankings: SP+, PFF adjusted (I don't agree with their QB ratings so I'll do manual adjustments), and Massey Peabody. I then attempt to quantify injuries- both individual and cluster, weather, travel situations, any outlier positional matchups, coaching matchups, rivalries, time of the season, and any other factor that would potentially influence a team's number. In a perfect world I would create my own rankings, but I don't have the bandwidth to do that am not that good at R or Python, so I'll just use what is out there. </p><p></p><p>SP+ has consistently been the most predictive ranking system over the past five years and it factors prominently in my Regular Season Win total betting. SP+ is also baked heavily into every single Vegas line, so if you think you are going to win using solely SP+ you have another thing coming. </p><p></p><p>I like PFF rankings because of their grading system. I realize that this grading system isn't perfect, but to my knowledge there is no one else out there who is doing this and it has lead me to some actionable and profitable insights in the past. I do take issue with how they quantify QB's in their power rankings, so I'll make adjustments on the teams that I feel confident in my knowledge. For example. They have GT QB at -1.5 (our overall is -2.08 this week), assuming Pyron is the QB. I think Haynes is +.25, so my PFF adjusted number is -.33. My process here is more feel than science, so flame away at the subjectivity of the adjustments...</p><p></p><p>Massey Peabody rankings are the final piece of the puzzle. Not to be confused with Massey rankings, they can be found a paywall at <a href="https://unabated.com/" target="_blank">Unabated.com</a>. Developed by Cade Massey, a Wharton School of Business professor, and Rufus Peabody, who is one of the world's most successful modeler and sports bettor. You can read more about Massey Peabody rankings <a href="https://massey-peabody.com/methodology/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GetYourBuzzOn, post: 963497, member: 6610"] Thanks [USER=282]@slugboy[/USER] - my $.02 here- To echo the initial point, these rankings are not your traditional rankings, which should reflect a team's current season's resume. Instead, they are power rankings and try to predict who would win on a neutral site. The formula is simply (Power Rank Home Team) + (Home Field Adv Home Team) - (Power Rank Away Team) = Margin of Victory. The power rankings all take into account priors, but weight them or phase them out differently. A big point of discussion this year among those who create the models is how quickly to phase out priors with teams that undergo drastic turnover such as Colorado or Texas State. Or, how quickly to phase out priors due to coaching staff turnover- like our beloved Jackets. (For the record I think all models are a bit low on GT, and the market money that we have taken every week so far backs that opinion up) For my handicapping, I use a blend of three power rankings: SP+, PFF adjusted (I don't agree with their QB ratings so I'll do manual adjustments), and Massey Peabody. I then attempt to quantify injuries- both individual and cluster, weather, travel situations, any outlier positional matchups, coaching matchups, rivalries, time of the season, and any other factor that would potentially influence a team's number. In a perfect world I would create my own rankings, but I don't have the bandwidth to do that am not that good at R or Python, so I'll just use what is out there. SP+ has consistently been the most predictive ranking system over the past five years and it factors prominently in my Regular Season Win total betting. SP+ is also baked heavily into every single Vegas line, so if you think you are going to win using solely SP+ you have another thing coming. I like PFF rankings because of their grading system. I realize that this grading system isn't perfect, but to my knowledge there is no one else out there who is doing this and it has lead me to some actionable and profitable insights in the past. I do take issue with how they quantify QB's in their power rankings, so I'll make adjustments on the teams that I feel confident in my knowledge. For example. They have GT QB at -1.5 (our overall is -2.08 this week), assuming Pyron is the QB. I think Haynes is +.25, so my PFF adjusted number is -.33. My process here is more feel than science, so flame away at the subjectivity of the adjustments... Massey Peabody rankings are the final piece of the puzzle. Not to be confused with Massey rankings, they can be found a paywall at [URL='https://unabated.com/']Unabated.com[/URL]. Developed by Cade Massey, a Wharton School of Business professor, and Rufus Peabody, who is one of the world's most successful modeler and sports bettor. You can read more about Massey Peabody rankings [URL='https://massey-peabody.com/methodology/']here[/URL]. [/QUOTE]
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