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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 963366" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>I should add [USER=1175]@ibeattetris[/USER] and [USER=6610]@GetYourBuzzOn[/USER] here, to add in more info. </p><p></p><p>A lot of the models have “priors”. In the case of FEI, it’s the last 5 seasons., so it’s one of Johnson’s worst seasons followed by 4 of mostly Collins. We started that model this year with an F- average to dig out of. </p><p></p><p>The overall consensus for us (averaging out all these models), is #78. That doesn’t really mean anything, especially 4 games in, but if you have 9 models, hey why not average them?</p><p></p><p>There are the <a href="https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings" target="_blank">Massey Ratings</a>. We’re #70 on the Power Ratings and #67 on the regular ones. </p><p></p><p>Some models tell more about how they work. FEI and Beta Rank and Sagarin and SP+ will tell how they’re calculated. and what the inputs are. Others are harder to sus out. </p><p></p><p>FEI and SP+ were popular among a lot of people because they were easy to find, and explained how they worked. SP+ is now in the ESPN paywall, so you either pay for ESPN+ or you turn to another model. </p><p></p><p>And, as a complete aside, SMU might be the best team we added in expansion. Even before becoming a P5 team. </p><p></p><p>There’s <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/" target="_blank">TeamRankings</a>—we’re #58. I have no idea how they build the model. </p><p></p><p>There’s <a href="http://www.dokterentropy.com/currat.txt" target="_blank">Doktor Entropy</a>. He does weekly predictions, and picked <a href="http://www.dokterentropy.com/predCFB.html" target="_blank">Wake by 8</a>. Not sure how his model works, but he’s been selling it for ages.</p><p></p><p>There’s <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi" target="_blank">ESPN’s FPI</a>. It seems to think we’ll have between 5 and 6 wins this year. Ranks us 49th. It’s the one you know about, because it’s ESPN.</p><p></p><p>There’s Kelley Ford (<a href="https://kfordratings.com/power" target="_blank">KFord Ratings</a>). He’s on Twitter and will explain his model. It holds up very well in Pick’em contests. We’re up to #57. </p><p></p><p>The last two are Brian Fremeau’s FEI (at bcftoys.com) and Bill Connelly’s SP+ (over at ESPN, <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38478223/college-football-2023-week-4-sp+-rankings-takeaways" target="_blank">paywalled</a>)</p><p></p><p>Outside of those, there are the graphs and info at gameonpaper.com and cfb-graphs.com, plus other info at <a href="https://collegefootballdata.com/" target="_blank">https://collegefootballdata.com/</a>. </p><p></p><p>Unless we beat Bowling Green 222-0 (or even if we do) Miami will still be favored in game 6. However, we’re 2-2, if we beat Bowling Green, we have a winning record for the first time this season.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 963366, member: 282"] I should add [USER=1175]@ibeattetris[/USER] and [USER=6610]@GetYourBuzzOn[/USER] here, to add in more info. A lot of the models have “priors”. In the case of FEI, it’s the last 5 seasons., so it’s one of Johnson’s worst seasons followed by 4 of mostly Collins. We started that model this year with an F- average to dig out of. The overall consensus for us (averaging out all these models), is #78. That doesn’t really mean anything, especially 4 games in, but if you have 9 models, hey why not average them? There are the [URL='https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings']Massey Ratings[/URL]. We’re #70 on the Power Ratings and #67 on the regular ones. Some models tell more about how they work. FEI and Beta Rank and Sagarin and SP+ will tell how they’re calculated. and what the inputs are. Others are harder to sus out. FEI and SP+ were popular among a lot of people because they were easy to find, and explained how they worked. SP+ is now in the ESPN paywall, so you either pay for ESPN+ or you turn to another model. And, as a complete aside, SMU might be the best team we added in expansion. Even before becoming a P5 team. There’s [URL='https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/']TeamRankings[/URL]—we’re #58. I have no idea how they build the model. There’s [URL='http://www.dokterentropy.com/currat.txt']Doktor Entropy[/URL]. He does weekly predictions, and picked [URL='http://www.dokterentropy.com/predCFB.html']Wake by 8[/URL]. Not sure how his model works, but he’s been selling it for ages. There’s [URL='https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi']ESPN’s FPI[/URL]. It seems to think we’ll have between 5 and 6 wins this year. Ranks us 49th. It’s the one you know about, because it’s ESPN. There’s Kelley Ford ([URL='https://kfordratings.com/power']KFord Ratings[/URL]). He’s on Twitter and will explain his model. It holds up very well in Pick’em contests. We’re up to #57. The last two are Brian Fremeau’s FEI (at bcftoys.com) and Bill Connelly’s SP+ (over at ESPN, [URL='https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38478223/college-football-2023-week-4-sp+-rankings-takeaways']paywalled[/URL]) Outside of those, there are the graphs and info at gameonpaper.com and cfb-graphs.com, plus other info at [URL]https://collegefootballdata.com/[/URL]. Unless we beat Bowling Green 222-0 (or even if we do) Miami will still be favored in game 6. However, we’re 2-2, if we beat Bowling Green, we have a winning record for the first time this season. [/QUOTE]
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