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<blockquote data-quote="stinger78" data-source="post: 1002110" data-attributes="member: 6771"><p>You pick 68 teams from among those with the best W/L records and your chances are pretty good to get some great games, especially as the field narrows -i.e. self-selects the best/hottest of the field.</p><p></p><p>If I read your Tableau quote from last September correctly, the ATS predictors all cluster around 50%. That’s basically a coin toss.</p><p></p><p>IMPO, using point spread or MOV is a bad predictor game by game due to many confounding factors. Massey, which I believe uses MOV, doesn’t distinguish itself in that study and neither does Sagarin ELO Chess.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="stinger78, post: 1002110, member: 6771"] You pick 68 teams from among those with the best W/L records and your chances are pretty good to get some great games, especially as the field narrows -i.e. self-selects the best/hottest of the field. If I read your Tableau quote from last September correctly, the ATS predictors all cluster around 50%. That’s basically a coin toss. IMPO, using point spread or MOV is a bad predictor game by game due to many confounding factors. Massey, which I believe uses MOV, doesn’t distinguish itself in that study and neither does Sagarin ELO Chess. [/QUOTE]
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