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Statistics that give me hope about our offense
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 748749" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>That seems like something worth thinking about. With 8 interceptions, Sims’ passer rating is at 108, which ain’t great. If you take the interceptions out and just turn them into incompletions, it goes up to 124, which is still well below average. In the NCAA’s a QBR of 140 is respectable, and 150 or above is getting pretty good.</p><p>Trevor Lawrence leads the NCAA with a QBR of 234.</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th>Pass</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Rk</td><td>Player</td><td>Cmp</td><td>Att</td><td>Pct</td><td>Yds</td><td>Y/A</td><td>AY/A</td><td>TD</td><td>Int</td><td>Rate</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Jeff Sims</td><td>55</td><td>99</td><td>55.6</td><td>695</td><td>7.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>108.4</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Jordan Yates</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>50.0</td><td>4</td><td>1.0</td><td>1.0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>58.4</td></tr></table><p></p><p>[thead] [/thead]</p><p></p><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2020.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#passing" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 9/27/2020.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Here are the overall offensive stats. We’re giving up 4 turnovers per game and getting two back, for a net of 2 in the wrong direction. Conservatively, I might value a turnover at a 2-point swing. If that was the case, then we’d be scoring 8 more points per game, and we’re currently averaging 19 per game. That would put us at 27 points per game, which is pretty darn good and above average.</p><p></p><p>A more statistical view of the value of a turnover is in this <a href="https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors" target="_blank">5 Factors write up at Football Study Hall</a>. It values a turnover at a 5 point swing each (some points for you, some points your opponent doesn’t score. Just being even with our competition brings us a positive 10 point swing. If you think half of that is on offense, we’d be at 24 points. Eliminating them entirely would have us around 29 points, if half was on offense. Eliminating the turnovers entirely would also take about 10 points off of our opponent’s scores.</p><p></p><p>So, if we eliminate the turnovers entirely, do we win against UCF? We probably still lose by less than a touchdown. But we’d be 2-1 right now, and would have beaten Syracuse by about a field goal.</p><p></p><p>Do the stats justify a change in our play calling? To me, it looks like they do—more running, more “safe” passes”, finding a way to maintain our yards per play and keep control of the ball.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th>Pass</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Rush</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Tota</th><th></th><th></th><th>Firs</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Pena</th><th></th><th>Turn</th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Split</td><td>G</td><td>Cmp</td><td>Att</td><td>Pct</td><td>Yds</td><td>TD</td><td>Att</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TD</td><td>Plays</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>Pass</td><td>Rush</td><td>Pen</td><td>Tot</td><td>No.</td><td>Yds</td><td>Fum</td><td>Int</td><td>Tot</td></tr><tr><td>Offense</td><td>3</td><td>19.0</td><td>34.7</td><td>54.8</td><td>233.0</td><td>1.0</td><td>45.3</td><td>221.0</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.7</td><td>80.0</td><td>454.0</td><td>5.7</td><td>10.3</td><td>12.3</td><td>0.7</td><td>23.3</td><td>10.7</td><td>77.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>2.7</td><td>4.0</td></tr><tr><td>Defense</td><td>3</td><td>21.0</td><td>36.7</td><td>57.3</td><td>269.7</td><td>2.3</td><td>42.3</td><td>171.7</td><td>4.1</td><td>1.7</td><td>79.0</td><td>441.3</td><td>5.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>10.0</td><td>1.0</td><td>22.0</td><td>7.7</td><td>63.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>1.0</td><td>2.0</td></tr><tr><td>Difference</td><td></td><td>-2.0</td><td>-2.0</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-36.7</td><td>-1.3</td><td>+3.0</td><td>+49.3</td><td>+0.8</td><td>0.0</td><td>+1.0</td><td>+12.7</td><td>+0.1</td><td>-0.7</td><td>+2.3</td><td>-0.3</td><td>+1.3</td><td>+3.0</td><td>+14.0</td><td>+0.3</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+2.0</td></tr></table><p></p><p>[thead] [/thead]</p><p></p><p>I recommend the 5 Factors article as a good read. Field goals are basically a failure (a lesser one) because you’re leaving too many points on the table.</p><p></p><p>Also, Sims has a 55% completion percentage, which is high for us. It’s not going to be in the top tier of the ACC, but it’s moving in the right direction. Move that up a notch and we’re in good shape.</p><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2020.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#team" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 9/27/2020.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 748749, member: 282"] That seems like something worth thinking about. With 8 interceptions, Sims’ passer rating is at 108, which ain’t great. If you take the interceptions out and just turn them into incompletions, it goes up to 124, which is still well below average. In the NCAA’s a QBR of 140 is respectable, and 150 or above is getting pretty good. Trevor Lawrence leads the NCAA with a QBR of 234. [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pass[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rk[/TD] [TD]Player[/TD] [TD]Cmp[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Y/A[/TD] [TD]AY/A[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Int[/TD] [TD]Rate[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Jeff Sims[/TD] [TD]55[/TD] [TD]99[/TD] [TD]55.6[/TD] [TD]695[/TD] [TD]7.0[/TD] [TD]4.0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]108.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Jordan Yates[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]50.0[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]58.4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [thead] [/thead] Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2020.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#passing']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 9/27/2020. Here are the overall offensive stats. We’re giving up 4 turnovers per game and getting two back, for a net of 2 in the wrong direction. Conservatively, I might value a turnover at a 2-point swing. If that was the case, then we’d be scoring 8 more points per game, and we’re currently averaging 19 per game. That would put us at 27 points per game, which is pretty darn good and above average. A more statistical view of the value of a turnover is in this [URL='https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors']5 Factors write up at Football Study Hall[/URL]. It values a turnover at a 5 point swing each (some points for you, some points your opponent doesn’t score. Just being even with our competition brings us a positive 10 point swing. If you think half of that is on offense, we’d be at 24 points. Eliminating them entirely would have us around 29 points, if half was on offense. Eliminating the turnovers entirely would also take about 10 points off of our opponent’s scores. So, if we eliminate the turnovers entirely, do we win against UCF? We probably still lose by less than a touchdown. But we’d be 2-1 right now, and would have beaten Syracuse by about a field goal. Do the stats justify a change in our play calling? To me, it looks like they do—more running, more “safe” passes”, finding a way to maintain our yards per play and keep control of the ball. [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pass[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Rush[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Tota[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Firs[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pena[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Turn[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Split[/TD] [TD]G[/TD] [TD]Cmp[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Plays[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]Pass[/TD] [TD]Rush[/TD] [TD]Pen[/TD] [TD]Tot[/TD] [TD]No.[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Fum[/TD] [TD]Int[/TD] [TD]Tot[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Offense[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]19.0[/TD] [TD]34.7[/TD] [TD]54.8[/TD] [TD]233.0[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]45.3[/TD] [TD]221.0[/TD] [TD]4.9[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]80.0[/TD] [TD]454.0[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]10.3[/TD] [TD]12.3[/TD] [TD]0.7[/TD] [TD]23.3[/TD] [TD]10.7[/TD] [TD]77.7[/TD] [TD]1.3[/TD] [TD]2.7[/TD] [TD]4.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Defense[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]21.0[/TD] [TD]36.7[/TD] [TD]57.3[/TD] [TD]269.7[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]42.3[/TD] [TD]171.7[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]79.0[/TD] [TD]441.3[/TD] [TD]5.6[/TD] [TD]11.0[/TD] [TD]10.0[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]22.0[/TD] [TD]7.7[/TD] [TD]63.7[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]1.0[/TD] [TD]2.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Difference[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-2.0[/TD] [TD]-2.0[/TD] [TD]-2.5[/TD] [TD]-36.7[/TD] [TD]-1.3[/TD] [TD]+3.0[/TD] [TD]+49.3[/TD] [TD]+0.8[/TD] [TD]0.0[/TD] [TD]+1.0[/TD] [TD]+12.7[/TD] [TD]+0.1[/TD] [TD]-0.7[/TD] [TD]+2.3[/TD] [TD]-0.3[/TD] [TD]+1.3[/TD] [TD]+3.0[/TD] [TD]+14.0[/TD] [TD]+0.3[/TD] [TD]+1.7[/TD] [TD]+2.0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [thead] [/thead] I recommend the 5 Factors article as a good read. Field goals are basically a failure (a lesser one) because you’re leaving too many points on the table. Also, Sims has a 55% completion percentage, which is high for us. It’s not going to be in the top tier of the ACC, but it’s moving in the right direction. Move that up a notch and we’re in good shape. Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/georgia-tech/2020.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#team']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 9/27/2020. [/QUOTE]
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