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Some 23-24 Basketball stats
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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 996019" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>Well, that is certainly one way to look at things. Any particular reason to not include the 14 and 35 point losses (or the 3 point loss to UML for that matter)?</p><p></p><p>But even if you want to just use the last 7, for whatever reason, then you would also want to look at the wins. In our last 7 wins the average margin was 6.43 points and that is including a 21 point win against Alabama A&M (which would have actual justification as being viewed as an outlier compared to middle of the road SEC or BIg 12 teams). So in general, our wins have been closer than our losses.</p><p></p><p> Without that outlier game our wins are by an average margin of 4 points over the last 6. Only one of those wins even reached the 8 point margin that was the average margin in our defeats considered. And if anyone wants to know why I used just those wins, it is to match the 7 that was used for our losses. If you want to include the last 7 wins that weren't including the outlier against AAM, the margin of victory would actually goes down to 3.86.</p><p></p><p>For all games the average MOV when we win has been 7.8 points per game. The average MOV when we have lost has been 10.8. So by pretty much any reasonable view our wins are closer than our losses, and that is including games against GSU (4-15) and AAM (3-15) that would normally be viewed as opportunities to pad the MOV against overmatched teams. </p><p></p><p>Even if you want to try and account for outliers and say the Cinci game was just one bad night. Not including that game the MOV in our losses is 8.11 still higher than our MOV in our wins. If you throw out the outlier games against overmatched teams (GSU and AAM), the MOV in our wins is 3.86. If you want to include 2 outlier games in our losses just to match up the MOV without either the Cinci or UGA games is 7.375 so it still isn't really close. Our wins by any way you look at it were closer than our losses.</p><p></p><p>Here is a breakdown by how many games were by different number of possessions. </p><p></p><p>In one possession games (MOV 3 or less) we have 4 wins (Howard, PSU, UMass, Clemson) and only 1 loss (UML)</p><p>In two possession games (MOV 4 to 6) we have 2 wins (Duke, Hawaii) and 1 loss (@Duke)</p><p>In three possession games (MOV 7 to 9) we have 1 win (MSU) and 5 losses (Nevada, BC, ND, UVA, and Pitt)</p><p>double digit games we are 2 wins (GSU and AAM) and 3 losses (Cinci, UGA, FSU)</p><p></p><p>So if you're talking about outcomes of games being difference based on a small number of things going differently, that is 3 times more opportunities for that to change a win to a loss than the other way.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 996019, member: 2299"] Well, that is certainly one way to look at things. Any particular reason to not include the 14 and 35 point losses (or the 3 point loss to UML for that matter)? But even if you want to just use the last 7, for whatever reason, then you would also want to look at the wins. In our last 7 wins the average margin was 6.43 points and that is including a 21 point win against Alabama A&M (which would have actual justification as being viewed as an outlier compared to middle of the road SEC or BIg 12 teams). So in general, our wins have been closer than our losses. Without that outlier game our wins are by an average margin of 4 points over the last 6. Only one of those wins even reached the 8 point margin that was the average margin in our defeats considered. And if anyone wants to know why I used just those wins, it is to match the 7 that was used for our losses. If you want to include the last 7 wins that weren't including the outlier against AAM, the margin of victory would actually goes down to 3.86. For all games the average MOV when we win has been 7.8 points per game. The average MOV when we have lost has been 10.8. So by pretty much any reasonable view our wins are closer than our losses, and that is including games against GSU (4-15) and AAM (3-15) that would normally be viewed as opportunities to pad the MOV against overmatched teams. Even if you want to try and account for outliers and say the Cinci game was just one bad night. Not including that game the MOV in our losses is 8.11 still higher than our MOV in our wins. If you throw out the outlier games against overmatched teams (GSU and AAM), the MOV in our wins is 3.86. If you want to include 2 outlier games in our losses just to match up the MOV without either the Cinci or UGA games is 7.375 so it still isn't really close. Our wins by any way you look at it were closer than our losses. Here is a breakdown by how many games were by different number of possessions. In one possession games (MOV 3 or less) we have 4 wins (Howard, PSU, UMass, Clemson) and only 1 loss (UML) In two possession games (MOV 4 to 6) we have 2 wins (Duke, Hawaii) and 1 loss (@Duke) In three possession games (MOV 7 to 9) we have 1 win (MSU) and 5 losses (Nevada, BC, ND, UVA, and Pitt) double digit games we are 2 wins (GSU and AAM) and 3 losses (Cinci, UGA, FSU) So if you're talking about outcomes of games being difference based on a small number of things going differently, that is 3 times more opportunities for that to change a win to a loss than the other way. [/QUOTE]
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