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<blockquote data-quote="RonJohn" data-source="post: 376588" data-attributes="member: 2426"><p>1. OK so use rankings(which by the way use factors for things such as how much run defense/offense counts compared to passing, or how much 3rd down defense counts)</p><p>2. What level of top 25 team? From which year? Compare to number 12, or a specific team, or just average the probabilities of every top 25 team? There are many variables that can be factored in many different ways at the whim of ESPN.</p><p>3,4,5,6 How to the preseason predictions for wins/losses per team compare to actual wins/losses per team? How well does the conference win % midway through the season actually predict the conference winners? How many times per year does a team with an in game win % prediction of less than 20% actually end up winning the game? However you are willing to let such a system that isn't perfect decide who gets in the playoffs. I would rather just let the computer decide who the MNC is and award the trophy now.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>You are totally misunderstanding my statements and questions. How ESPN calculates the SoR is totally unknown. It cannot be checked by outside entities and verified. They can change the results at will if they desire. They can change the factors of variables at will to get different results if they desire. Using it as a basis for declaring who the best team or teams are is basically the same as simply deferring to ESPN's whims.</p><p></p><p>EDIT: By the way you are just guessing at how they do the calculations, because they don't even publish what you displayed. They simply say it predicts how a top 25 team would do against your schedule.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RonJohn, post: 376588, member: 2426"] 1. OK so use rankings(which by the way use factors for things such as how much run defense/offense counts compared to passing, or how much 3rd down defense counts) 2. What level of top 25 team? From which year? Compare to number 12, or a specific team, or just average the probabilities of every top 25 team? There are many variables that can be factored in many different ways at the whim of ESPN. 3,4,5,6 How to the preseason predictions for wins/losses per team compare to actual wins/losses per team? How well does the conference win % midway through the season actually predict the conference winners? How many times per year does a team with an in game win % prediction of less than 20% actually end up winning the game? However you are willing to let such a system that isn't perfect decide who gets in the playoffs. I would rather just let the computer decide who the MNC is and award the trophy now. You are totally misunderstanding my statements and questions. How ESPN calculates the SoR is totally unknown. It cannot be checked by outside entities and verified. They can change the results at will if they desire. They can change the factors of variables at will to get different results if they desire. Using it as a basis for declaring who the best team or teams are is basically the same as simply deferring to ESPN's whims. EDIT: By the way you are just guessing at how they do the calculations, because they don't even publish what you displayed. They simply say it predicts how a top 25 team would do against your schedule. [/QUOTE]
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