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S&P 2019 season projections
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<blockquote data-quote="smathis30" data-source="post: 544501" data-attributes="member: 1803"><p>Agree about rankings getting blurry the further away from the top. The weighting of recent recruiting classes is his attempt to show that needs filling. Returning production is far and out the highest predictor, and it effect defense way more than it does offense. Losing 8 starters on defense hurts way more than the few we are losing but on offense. Schedule isn really taken into effect yet. Only as a standardization for games already played. Because it’s for the 2019 season, it only counts 2015 onward, with 2018 having the largest impact and that diminishing over time with 2019 taking over with more data. It also uses every single play and was last the year the highest accuracy against the spread vs the 75 other models tracked on predictiontracker, so it’s not likes it’s a terrible model. At the end of the day it’s still a model. Preseason stuff is still usually pretty wild</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="smathis30, post: 544501, member: 1803"] Agree about rankings getting blurry the further away from the top. The weighting of recent recruiting classes is his attempt to show that needs filling. Returning production is far and out the highest predictor, and it effect defense way more than it does offense. Losing 8 starters on defense hurts way more than the few we are losing but on offense. Schedule isn really taken into effect yet. Only as a standardization for games already played. Because it’s for the 2019 season, it only counts 2015 onward, with 2018 having the largest impact and that diminishing over time with 2019 taking over with more data. It also uses every single play and was last the year the highest accuracy against the spread vs the 75 other models tracked on predictiontracker, so it’s not likes it’s a terrible model. At the end of the day it’s still a model. Preseason stuff is still usually pretty wild [/QUOTE]
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