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S&P 2019 season projections
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 544431" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>I can see, especially as a fan, objecting to this forecast and thinking he's out to get us. But, over 128 teams and ~12 games each, he has plenty of data to be accurate overall, even if he misses on a team or two. I'm sure he expects a lot of teams to do better and some to do worse. </p><p></p><p>If I were in his shoes, I wouldn't even worry about differences caused by coaching changes unless I had an easy way to plug them into the model. I don't think it's click-bait, because I don't think he makes enough money on the article for that to be worth it. I think he's just getting a pretty good estimate for the year for all 128 teams overall. </p><p></p><p>Overlooking the coaching change, we graduated our starting QB, our leading rusher (Taquan Marshall, our QB, was our leading rusher), and our three leading receivers, too (Searcy and Stewart and Lynch). We also lost some starting linemen. The last 5 years are </p><p>2014: 11-3</p><p>2015: 3-9</p><p>2016: 9-4</p><p>2017: 5-6</p><p>2018: 7-6</p><p></p><p>We ended last season at #74 overall. The bowl game didn't help our stats. With the production we lost, unless the last three years of recruiting are gangbusters, you would think there'd be some drop off. This year's recruiting class helped, but not enough in his stats to offset the production we lost. If you're not projecting from a rooting interest, and you see a team losing key starters on a decent but not amazing offense (for 2018), and key starters off a statistically bad defense, what are you going to forecast? </p><p></p><p>As it was, we're dropping from 74th last year to 89th in his forecast this year. </p><p></p><p>If underclassmen had won starting positions away from the graduating seniors, we'd be forecast for a better season. That didn't happen. </p><p></p><p>If Collins and his crew coach up the defense and the offensive line, and find players to step up at QB and receiver, then we could see an equal or better season this year than last, but I think it'll take some impressive coaching out of those guys. Good seasons for us usually have upperclassmen in key positions, or a special find here and there. We're looking for the special find in 2019.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 544431, member: 282"] I can see, especially as a fan, objecting to this forecast and thinking he's out to get us. But, over 128 teams and ~12 games each, he has plenty of data to be accurate overall, even if he misses on a team or two. I'm sure he expects a lot of teams to do better and some to do worse. If I were in his shoes, I wouldn't even worry about differences caused by coaching changes unless I had an easy way to plug them into the model. I don't think it's click-bait, because I don't think he makes enough money on the article for that to be worth it. I think he's just getting a pretty good estimate for the year for all 128 teams overall. Overlooking the coaching change, we graduated our starting QB, our leading rusher (Taquan Marshall, our QB, was our leading rusher), and our three leading receivers, too (Searcy and Stewart and Lynch). We also lost some starting linemen. The last 5 years are 2014: 11-3 2015: 3-9 2016: 9-4 2017: 5-6 2018: 7-6 We ended last season at #74 overall. The bowl game didn't help our stats. With the production we lost, unless the last three years of recruiting are gangbusters, you would think there'd be some drop off. This year's recruiting class helped, but not enough in his stats to offset the production we lost. If you're not projecting from a rooting interest, and you see a team losing key starters on a decent but not amazing offense (for 2018), and key starters off a statistically bad defense, what are you going to forecast? As it was, we're dropping from 74th last year to 89th in his forecast this year. If underclassmen had won starting positions away from the graduating seniors, we'd be forecast for a better season. That didn't happen. If Collins and his crew coach up the defense and the offensive line, and find players to step up at QB and receiver, then we could see an equal or better season this year than last, but I think it'll take some impressive coaching out of those guys. Good seasons for us usually have upperclassmen in key positions, or a special find here and there. We're looking for the special find in 2019. [/QUOTE]
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