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S&P 2019 season projections
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<blockquote data-quote="smathis30" data-source="post: 544344" data-attributes="member: 1803"><p><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections" target="_blank">https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections</a></p><p>As everyone knows, Bill Conley posts annual predictions, and his first round of 2019 predictions is up.</p><p>GT comes in at 89th and dead last in the ACC, as well as behind every single team that they play.</p><p>Before people over react, let’s look at Bills formulas to see why it is that way.</p><p>Things that matter: recruiting rankings.</p><p>Bill uses the 247 composite. Transfers are still to happen, so these could get better for tech and worse for other teams. Recent classes get more bias than past ones. Tech is rated 52 here, which is pretty fair.</p><p>Returning production is the bigger piece. It takes last years production (74th) and uses returning production through a variety of metrics to estimate where next years production would be hard off this years. Offense has a way smaller correlation with returning starters. Defense does not. Although GT returns basically it’s entirety of its secondary (and retuning snaps for DBs and pass break ups are the two single highest predictions of how a defense will do year to year) we lose the entirety of the front 7, which means almost every other statistic (tacked, TFL, sacks, snaps, starts) looks absolutely terrible. Changing schemes won’t reflect in this, so it’s way lower than what it would be at, especially if we shift back to a 4-3 or Nickle/Dime look.</p><p>Also takes into effect the previous 5 seasons, which starts in 2014. GT ranks 32nd here.</p><p></p><p>Other teams of note: team-tank-score</p><p>Vs UGA-2-30.7</p><p>@Clemson-3-29.9</p><p>@Miami-19-13.9</p><p>vs VT-30-10.6</p><p>@UVA-41-7.9</p><p>vs NC State-47-6.3</p><p>Vs Pitt-59-3.8</p><p>Vs UNC-61-3.2</p><p>@Duke-65-2.9</p><p>@Temple-66-2.2</p><p>Vs USF-71-1.0</p><p>Georgia tech-89-(3.5)</p><p></p><p>Obviously it’s not perfect, and some big flaws (lol UNC), but it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out</p><p>SP also likes consistency and last season at GT, well, consistency is not a word I would use to describe it.</p><p>I think we’ll do better than predicted, but it’s always interesting to see how the numbers do</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="smathis30, post: 544344, member: 1803"] [URL]https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections[/URL] As everyone knows, Bill Conley posts annual predictions, and his first round of 2019 predictions is up. GT comes in at 89th and dead last in the ACC, as well as behind every single team that they play. Before people over react, let’s look at Bills formulas to see why it is that way. Things that matter: recruiting rankings. Bill uses the 247 composite. Transfers are still to happen, so these could get better for tech and worse for other teams. Recent classes get more bias than past ones. Tech is rated 52 here, which is pretty fair. Returning production is the bigger piece. It takes last years production (74th) and uses returning production through a variety of metrics to estimate where next years production would be hard off this years. Offense has a way smaller correlation with returning starters. Defense does not. Although GT returns basically it’s entirety of its secondary (and retuning snaps for DBs and pass break ups are the two single highest predictions of how a defense will do year to year) we lose the entirety of the front 7, which means almost every other statistic (tacked, TFL, sacks, snaps, starts) looks absolutely terrible. Changing schemes won’t reflect in this, so it’s way lower than what it would be at, especially if we shift back to a 4-3 or Nickle/Dime look. Also takes into effect the previous 5 seasons, which starts in 2014. GT ranks 32nd here. Other teams of note: team-tank-score Vs UGA-2-30.7 @Clemson-3-29.9 @Miami-19-13.9 vs VT-30-10.6 @UVA-41-7.9 vs NC State-47-6.3 Vs Pitt-59-3.8 Vs UNC-61-3.2 @Duke-65-2.9 @Temple-66-2.2 Vs USF-71-1.0 Georgia tech-89-(3.5) Obviously it’s not perfect, and some big flaws (lol UNC), but it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out SP also likes consistency and last season at GT, well, consistency is not a word I would use to describe it. I think we’ll do better than predicted, but it’s always interesting to see how the numbers do [/QUOTE]
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