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Realistic expectations for 2016?
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<blockquote data-quote="AE 87" data-source="post: 227150" data-attributes="member: 195"><p>Okay, it's hard to pour the koolaid after last season and, in some sense, after the T-Day game. However, it should be noted that the 2016 bama spring game ended at 7-3, so maybe drawing conclusions from the final score of the spring game is not that great an idea. Let's also put some perspective on last season with my favorite stat, ppd v. pwr 5. We ended 2015 with an offensive ppd vs pwr5 of 1.73. By comparison, that stat since 2008 was 1.99, 3.11, 2.05, 2.68, 2.95, 2.55, 3.52. In other words, we averaged over a TD/game worse in 2015 than 2014 and about a FG/game worse than our previous worse year. On the bright side, that 2015 off ppd was still the same as the average for VPI's offense over the last five years.</p><p></p><p>I don't think that it's realistic that we repeat that poor performance on offense. I predict that we'll be back to a more normal number, say 2.8 ppd v pwr5.</p><p></p><p>On D, we lost a lot of starters off an average defense. However, I think that we've got some guys who are ready to play. I'm really excited about our LB crew and am pretty optimistic about our DL and secondary. Still on top of that, I am most excited that we heard the coaches talking about needing to do a better job disguising our D etc. It may be just coach speak, but I've often felt that opposition QBs knew what we were going to do on D better than some of our players. Our D has been pretty consistently below average.</p><p></p><p>One thing that Spring game showed us was that our D seemed to play their assignments better and tackle better. An average D allows about 2.2 ppd vs pwr5. While our D has allowed over 2.4 for the last couple of years, I predict that we'll see marked improvement, say 2.15.</p><p></p><p>The resulting differential from my prediction is .65 which is typically good enough for top 20, top 15, which typically means 9-10 wins.</p><p></p><p>Where those wins are coming from is harder to say. I think Clemson and UNC will fall back some from last year based on the guys they lost. I think Brad Kaaya is going to have a great year for d'oh U, but I'm not sure that their D will give him enough support. I think UVA will be a tough-out this year in the coastal now that they have coaching to match their talent, and I won't be surprised if vpisu has chemistry problems as they try and merge old and new staffs.</p><p></p><p>I think we win BC, Mercer, Vandy, Duke, GS (5).</p><p>I think we win 2 of CU, Miami, Pitt and 2 of UNC, VPI, UVA (+4, 9)</p><p>Then the georgie game determines whether we end up with 9 or 10.</p><p></p><p>That being said, if we are undefeated after d'oh U, we win them all baby! If we get swept by CU, d'ohU and Pitt, ugly.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AE 87, post: 227150, member: 195"] Okay, it's hard to pour the koolaid after last season and, in some sense, after the T-Day game. However, it should be noted that the 2016 bama spring game ended at 7-3, so maybe drawing conclusions from the final score of the spring game is not that great an idea. Let's also put some perspective on last season with my favorite stat, ppd v. pwr 5. We ended 2015 with an offensive ppd vs pwr5 of 1.73. By comparison, that stat since 2008 was 1.99, 3.11, 2.05, 2.68, 2.95, 2.55, 3.52. In other words, we averaged over a TD/game worse in 2015 than 2014 and about a FG/game worse than our previous worse year. On the bright side, that 2015 off ppd was still the same as the average for VPI's offense over the last five years. I don't think that it's realistic that we repeat that poor performance on offense. I predict that we'll be back to a more normal number, say 2.8 ppd v pwr5. On D, we lost a lot of starters off an average defense. However, I think that we've got some guys who are ready to play. I'm really excited about our LB crew and am pretty optimistic about our DL and secondary. Still on top of that, I am most excited that we heard the coaches talking about needing to do a better job disguising our D etc. It may be just coach speak, but I've often felt that opposition QBs knew what we were going to do on D better than some of our players. Our D has been pretty consistently below average. One thing that Spring game showed us was that our D seemed to play their assignments better and tackle better. An average D allows about 2.2 ppd vs pwr5. While our D has allowed over 2.4 for the last couple of years, I predict that we'll see marked improvement, say 2.15. The resulting differential from my prediction is .65 which is typically good enough for top 20, top 15, which typically means 9-10 wins. Where those wins are coming from is harder to say. I think Clemson and UNC will fall back some from last year based on the guys they lost. I think Brad Kaaya is going to have a great year for d'oh U, but I'm not sure that their D will give him enough support. I think UVA will be a tough-out this year in the coastal now that they have coaching to match their talent, and I won't be surprised if vpisu has chemistry problems as they try and merge old and new staffs. I think we win BC, Mercer, Vandy, Duke, GS (5). I think we win 2 of CU, Miami, Pitt and 2 of UNC, VPI, UVA (+4, 9) Then the georgie game determines whether we end up with 9 or 10. That being said, if we are undefeated after d'oh U, we win them all baby! If we get swept by CU, d'ohU and Pitt, ugly. [/QUOTE]
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