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<blockquote data-quote="Augusta_Jacket" data-source="post: 503921" data-attributes="member: 1191"><p>There's been a lot of debate over the years in regards to our recruiting. Some have argued that Paul Johnson hurt recruiting, others have argued that he did more with less, some have even argued that he improved recruiting. A couple of years ago I decided to look at the data, and frankly, what I found surprised me. I compiled all the data from 2002-2018, using rivals as a source, since they predate some of the other services and have long been considered an industry standard. Using ESPN, 247, or others would most likely produce similar results, but for the purpose of this exercise, I opted to use Rivals. For purposes of comparing the coaches, I added classes 2002-2007 to CCG, and 2009-2018 to CPJ. I left the 2008 class out of each coaches data sets, as the coaching change impacted the cycle. Of note, however, that class was ranked 49th, so it sits in line with both coaches average class. </p><p></p><p>I'd also like to put the following caveats out there. We cannot know if CCG would have sustained recruiting success similar to 2007 going forward. Before the change, the 2008 class was in line with more normal GT recruiting on a "good" cycle. If memory serves me correctly, we were ranked in the low 40's/high 30's when CCG was fired. I have no data to support this assertion, however. </p><p></p><p>I'd also like to point out that I was not a fan of firing CCG, and I was initially opposed to the hire of CPJ. I have since come to love him and what he did for GT. That being said, let's take a look at the raw data.</p><p></p><p>Since 2002, GT has averaged a recruiting class rank of 51.5. Where do our coaches fall on this scale? CCG classes averaged 50.8, and CPJ classes averaged 52.1. This average takes into account CCGs monster 2007 class and also penalizes CPJ for the disastrous (ranking wise) 2013 class. The argument that CPJ has been a poorer recruiter than CCG can be viewed as valid if you use this as your only data point.</p><p></p><p>However, you need to understand that recruiting rankings are done using a "total points" system that rewards larger recruiting classes and penalizes smaller classes. To get a full baseline score, you can count the points for 20 recruits. After 20, your 20 highest count and "hide" your lowest scoring recruits. This is why large recruiting classes tend to be ranked the highest, and smaller classes rank lowest. For instance, the 2013 class ranked 84th had 14 commitments in it. Similarly, 2016, 2012, 2006, & 2002 had 18, 17, 16, & 15 commitments. Each of those years were ranked in the 50's or higher. So, for context, how many years did we rank higher than 50 with "full" classes of 20 or more? 3 times. 2018 (53 & 21), 2004 (56 & 24), & 2003 (50 & 21). </p><p>[ATTACH=full]4636[/ATTACH] </p><p>What I find to be a better indicator of class composition is the average star per recruit. In this, CPJ has a decided advantage. In the 10 years accredited to him, his recruits have averaged 2.92 stars out of 5. CCG averaged 2.7. Only one CCG class averaged better than 3 stars: 2007 at 3.3. CPJ has had 4 years with averages of 3.0 or greater. As you can see in the chart below, CPJ has done a better job of staying at or above the trendline than CCG did. </p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]4637[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Lastly, in the stat that I think best sums up the difference in the recruiting of CCG and CPJ, is number of 4* vs 2* recruits. While I think we can all agree that many 2* recruits are hidden gems, as many times as not they never perform as well as higher rated recruits. In the 6 years accredited to CCG, he had 53 2* recruits to the 33 in ten years CPJ recruited. Conversely, CCG had 15 4* recruits in 6 years vs 18 in 10 years for CPJ. If each coaches recruiting was compared to a baseball hitter, CCG was the slugger who struck out a lot and CPJ is the line drive hitter who gets consistent singles and doubles. </p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]4639[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>So, what do we derive from this data? It depends on what's most important to you. If you want to win recruiting rankings, the CCG was slightly better and trending up. CPJ stayed consistent with GTs recruiting history ranking wise, but improved our per recruit average. </p><p></p><p>Ultimately, I think we need to realize that unless we change our financial situation, and begin to fund football on par with expectations, then we will most likely remain mired at our current level regardless of the coach brought in. I just figured I'd show you guys the numbers, and let you make of them what you will.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Augusta_Jacket, post: 503921, member: 1191"] There's been a lot of debate over the years in regards to our recruiting. Some have argued that Paul Johnson hurt recruiting, others have argued that he did more with less, some have even argued that he improved recruiting. A couple of years ago I decided to look at the data, and frankly, what I found surprised me. I compiled all the data from 2002-2018, using rivals as a source, since they predate some of the other services and have long been considered an industry standard. Using ESPN, 247, or others would most likely produce similar results, but for the purpose of this exercise, I opted to use Rivals. For purposes of comparing the coaches, I added classes 2002-2007 to CCG, and 2009-2018 to CPJ. I left the 2008 class out of each coaches data sets, as the coaching change impacted the cycle. Of note, however, that class was ranked 49th, so it sits in line with both coaches average class. I'd also like to put the following caveats out there. We cannot know if CCG would have sustained recruiting success similar to 2007 going forward. Before the change, the 2008 class was in line with more normal GT recruiting on a "good" cycle. If memory serves me correctly, we were ranked in the low 40's/high 30's when CCG was fired. I have no data to support this assertion, however. I'd also like to point out that I was not a fan of firing CCG, and I was initially opposed to the hire of CPJ. I have since come to love him and what he did for GT. That being said, let's take a look at the raw data. Since 2002, GT has averaged a recruiting class rank of 51.5. Where do our coaches fall on this scale? CCG classes averaged 50.8, and CPJ classes averaged 52.1. This average takes into account CCGs monster 2007 class and also penalizes CPJ for the disastrous (ranking wise) 2013 class. The argument that CPJ has been a poorer recruiter than CCG can be viewed as valid if you use this as your only data point. However, you need to understand that recruiting rankings are done using a "total points" system that rewards larger recruiting classes and penalizes smaller classes. To get a full baseline score, you can count the points for 20 recruits. After 20, your 20 highest count and "hide" your lowest scoring recruits. This is why large recruiting classes tend to be ranked the highest, and smaller classes rank lowest. For instance, the 2013 class ranked 84th had 14 commitments in it. Similarly, 2016, 2012, 2006, & 2002 had 18, 17, 16, & 15 commitments. Each of those years were ranked in the 50's or higher. So, for context, how many years did we rank higher than 50 with "full" classes of 20 or more? 3 times. 2018 (53 & 21), 2004 (56 & 24), & 2003 (50 & 21). [ATTACH=full]4636[/ATTACH] What I find to be a better indicator of class composition is the average star per recruit. In this, CPJ has a decided advantage. In the 10 years accredited to him, his recruits have averaged 2.92 stars out of 5. CCG averaged 2.7. Only one CCG class averaged better than 3 stars: 2007 at 3.3. CPJ has had 4 years with averages of 3.0 or greater. As you can see in the chart below, CPJ has done a better job of staying at or above the trendline than CCG did. [ATTACH=full]4637[/ATTACH] Lastly, in the stat that I think best sums up the difference in the recruiting of CCG and CPJ, is number of 4* vs 2* recruits. While I think we can all agree that many 2* recruits are hidden gems, as many times as not they never perform as well as higher rated recruits. In the 6 years accredited to CCG, he had 53 2* recruits to the 33 in ten years CPJ recruited. Conversely, CCG had 15 4* recruits in 6 years vs 18 in 10 years for CPJ. If each coaches recruiting was compared to a baseball hitter, CCG was the slugger who struck out a lot and CPJ is the line drive hitter who gets consistent singles and doubles. [ATTACH=full]4639[/ATTACH] So, what do we derive from this data? It depends on what's most important to you. If you want to win recruiting rankings, the CCG was slightly better and trending up. CPJ stayed consistent with GTs recruiting history ranking wise, but improved our per recruit average. Ultimately, I think we need to realize that unless we change our financial situation, and begin to fund football on par with expectations, then we will most likely remain mired at our current level regardless of the coach brought in. I just figured I'd show you guys the numbers, and let you make of them what you will. [/QUOTE]
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