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The Swarm Lounge
NOAA&NASA: 2014 Warmest Year on Record
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<blockquote data-quote="00Burdell" data-source="post: 132937" data-attributes="member: 5"><p>So the first challenge is to find the baseline behaviour of a chaotic system that bounces between icebox and hothouse. Then determine whether or not we have jumped the tracks. Then determine the relative contribution of all the inputs into the system well enough to understand which ones to modify, the direction of the modification and the magnitude of the modification. And, since its a chaotic system, the inputs are partially dependent on the outputs so the analysis yields a different answer as the state of the system changes. And this assumes that it is possible to modify the inputs at all. The other thing that concerns me is that it is completely unknown how much locked-in stress there is in the current climate state. When a system bounces between extremes, there are forces pulling in (at least) two directions. If the system is stable, you can't always tell how hard each side is pulling - only that the forces are cancelling each other. Introducing an imbalance - even a very small one - can produce a completely disproportionate effect (think camel and just one more straw).</p><p></p><p>But we can't be sure if a snowstorm hitting NY in 24 hours will dump three feet of snow or six inches of snow. </p><p></p><p>My position on this, right or wrong, is simple. The debate about causality is folly. Just leave the system alone - don't alter the composition of the air or the ocean. The chances that intervention will make the system more stable versus the unintended consequence of making it less stable are not on our side.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="00Burdell, post: 132937, member: 5"] So the first challenge is to find the baseline behaviour of a chaotic system that bounces between icebox and hothouse. Then determine whether or not we have jumped the tracks. Then determine the relative contribution of all the inputs into the system well enough to understand which ones to modify, the direction of the modification and the magnitude of the modification. And, since its a chaotic system, the inputs are partially dependent on the outputs so the analysis yields a different answer as the state of the system changes. And this assumes that it is possible to modify the inputs at all. The other thing that concerns me is that it is completely unknown how much locked-in stress there is in the current climate state. When a system bounces between extremes, there are forces pulling in (at least) two directions. If the system is stable, you can't always tell how hard each side is pulling - only that the forces are cancelling each other. Introducing an imbalance - even a very small one - can produce a completely disproportionate effect (think camel and just one more straw). But we can't be sure if a snowstorm hitting NY in 24 hours will dump three feet of snow or six inches of snow. My position on this, right or wrong, is simple. The debate about causality is folly. Just leave the system alone - don't alter the composition of the air or the ocean. The chances that intervention will make the system more stable versus the unintended consequence of making it less stable are not on our side. [/QUOTE]
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NOAA&NASA: 2014 Warmest Year on Record
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