Home
Articles
Photos
Interviews
Forums
New posts
Search forums
Georgia Tech Recruiting
Dashboard
What's new
New posts
New profile posts
Latest activity
Chat
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Home
Forums
General Topics
The Swarm Lounge
NOAA&NASA: 2014 Warmest Year on Record
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="cyptomcat" data-source="post: 126828" data-attributes="member: 323"><p>I can see that kind of reasoning, and I think it's fair to say that 2014 was not the warmest year on record based on the 62% chance (or 52% chance). However, I disagree with the complaints about the "on record" part. In both of the releases that I linked in my OP, the fact that records begin with 1880 is made clear in the very first paragraph. If someone assumes "on record" goes further out than 1880, then that's their own assumption. It's literally first thing NOAA and NASA hammers you with in their release text.</p><p></p><p>Now more on the 'warmest' part. All kinds of algorithms for different applications have to carry out a ranking task, and when they do, they declare some object as #1 in some attribute. All it means is that it's chance of being #1 is larger than chance of any other single object's attribute being #1. In other words, the answer to the question "If you had to name a year as the warmest year on record?" is "2014" based on the chances NOAA and NASA have calculated as follows:</p><p></p><p>NOAA chance of being warmest year:</p><p>2014 - 48%</p><p>2010 - 18%</p><p>2005 - 13%</p><p>2013 - 6%</p><p>1998 - 5%</p><p></p><p>NASA chance of being warmest year:</p><p>2014 - 38%</p><p>2010 - 23%</p><p>2005 - 17%</p><p>2013 - 4%</p><p></p><p>It's crucial that NOAA gives the warmest year to 2000s with 85% chance, and NASA with 82%. It can actually be even significantly more than those numbers since other 2000 years are not given.</p><p></p><p>Slides here from the release to media:</p><p><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf</a></p><p></p><p>P.S. I'll come back to your earlier post later tonight when I will finally have time to go over the links.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="cyptomcat, post: 126828, member: 323"] I can see that kind of reasoning, and I think it's fair to say that 2014 was not the warmest year on record based on the 62% chance (or 52% chance). However, I disagree with the complaints about the "on record" part. In both of the releases that I linked in my OP, the fact that records begin with 1880 is made clear in the very first paragraph. If someone assumes "on record" goes further out than 1880, then that's their own assumption. It's literally first thing NOAA and NASA hammers you with in their release text. Now more on the 'warmest' part. All kinds of algorithms for different applications have to carry out a ranking task, and when they do, they declare some object as #1 in some attribute. All it means is that it's chance of being #1 is larger than chance of any other single object's attribute being #1. In other words, the answer to the question "If you had to name a year as the warmest year on record?" is "2014" based on the chances NOAA and NASA have calculated as follows: NOAA chance of being warmest year: 2014 - 48% 2010 - 18% 2005 - 13% 2013 - 6% 1998 - 5% NASA chance of being warmest year: 2014 - 38% 2010 - 23% 2005 - 17% 2013 - 4% It's crucial that NOAA gives the warmest year to 2000s with 85% chance, and NASA with 82%. It can actually be even significantly more than those numbers since other 2000 years are not given. Slides here from the release to media: [URL]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf[/URL] P.S. I'll come back to your earlier post later tonight when I will finally have time to go over the links. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
What jersey number did Justin Thomas wear?
Post reply
Home
Forums
General Topics
The Swarm Lounge
NOAA&NASA: 2014 Warmest Year on Record
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top