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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 770460" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>This year is going to be weird, and I'm not sure how many will be invited--if we stick with 68, there are only 37 at large bids. We need to see if we even hold the tournament, and how many teams are capable of playing. </p><p></p><p>If it's 68 teams with 37 at large bids, winning the ACC tournament is our sure shot, with a regular season championship also working. Right now, that doesn't look like us, unless we develop some more offensive firepower. I think 5-7 ACC teams can get in. We don't have a lot of top 10 programs, but if there are teams that can't play because of COVID, which might still be the case in March, more mid-tier programs might get in. </p><p></p><p>I think the bare minimum winning percentage, even in COVID days, is 50%, and is probably closer to a 55% winning percentage. You should have a quality (upset) win in there, or two. If we're around 55% winning percentage, we have a shot at the NCAA taking us as a sixth or seventh ACC team. That means a winning conference record, since we're 4-3 right now. </p><p></p><p>We'd also have to look good as a basketball team. <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/rpi/" target="_blank">Our RPI is #139 right now</a>. <a href="https://kenpom.com/" target="_blank">Our KenPom ranking is #77</a>. I'd expect an NCAA at-large team to be top 40 or thereabouts in one or both polls. If ten teams fall out because of COVID, then it could be top 50 or 55, but that still needs a significant uptick in our play. </p><p></p><p>We've played 7 games so far. If we play 25 games this year, I think 13 wins would be on the bleeding edge of the bubble. If we play about 30, then 16 wins is minimum, and 17 is a little safer. To get to 17/13, we'd need to win 13 out of 23--so about 60ish percent, which would be a great conference record for us. </p><p></p><p>Right now, I think we're looking at:</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Duke</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Virginia</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">North Carolina </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Florida State</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Syracuse</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Virginia Tech</li> </ol><p>We have to be better in our record than at least one of those teams. </p><p></p><p>FWIW, Mercer and Ga State have a great shot at the tournament right now. </p><p></p><p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NCAA_Division_I_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament" target="_blank">2021 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament - Wikipedia</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 770460, member: 282"] This year is going to be weird, and I'm not sure how many will be invited--if we stick with 68, there are only 37 at large bids. We need to see if we even hold the tournament, and how many teams are capable of playing. If it's 68 teams with 37 at large bids, winning the ACC tournament is our sure shot, with a regular season championship also working. Right now, that doesn't look like us, unless we develop some more offensive firepower. I think 5-7 ACC teams can get in. We don't have a lot of top 10 programs, but if there are teams that can't play because of COVID, which might still be the case in March, more mid-tier programs might get in. I think the bare minimum winning percentage, even in COVID days, is 50%, and is probably closer to a 55% winning percentage. You should have a quality (upset) win in there, or two. If we're around 55% winning percentage, we have a shot at the NCAA taking us as a sixth or seventh ACC team. That means a winning conference record, since we're 4-3 right now. We'd also have to look good as a basketball team. [URL='https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/rpi/']Our RPI is #139 right now[/URL]. [URL='https://kenpom.com/']Our KenPom ranking is #77[/URL]. I'd expect an NCAA at-large team to be top 40 or thereabouts in one or both polls. If ten teams fall out because of COVID, then it could be top 50 or 55, but that still needs a significant uptick in our play. We've played 7 games so far. If we play 25 games this year, I think 13 wins would be on the bleeding edge of the bubble. If we play about 30, then 16 wins is minimum, and 17 is a little safer. To get to 17/13, we'd need to win 13 out of 23--so about 60ish percent, which would be a great conference record for us. Right now, I think we're looking at: [LIST=1] [*]Duke [*]Virginia [*]North Carolina [*]Florida State [*]Syracuse [*]Virginia Tech [/LIST] We have to be better in our record than at least one of those teams. FWIW, Mercer and Ga State have a great shot at the tournament right now. [URL='https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NCAA_Division_I_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament']2021 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament - Wikipedia[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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